The Trade Report-Week 7 Buys and Sells
We’re approaching the halfway point in the fantasy season and by now you should know your team well. Your strengths should be leveraged where you can and your weaknesses should be addressed asap. Now is the perfect time to utilize your depth to fill any holes you need to make the playoff push. I have some good buys to take advantage of touch trends and an easier rest of season schedule. Hope it helps!
- Jameis Winston(TB): Why is Drew Brees considered perhaps the greatest fantasy quarterback to have had for the past decade(maybe all-time)? Not only did he have immense talent and good weapons, but the Saints’ defense was garbage. Well, Winston will benefit from the same things. While his talent isn’t up to Brees’ standards, his weapons and his sub-par defense are. Tampa Bay will be in a lot of shoot-outs and/or will be playing catch-up. Winston is going to be spreading the ball around to Evans, Godwin, and Howard like crazy. As he gets back in the regular season rhythm, look for the former Seminole to put up QB1 numbers the rest of the way, and through the fantasy football playoffs. His price tag should still be a bargain and primed to buy.
- Baker Mayfield(Cle): Over the past two weeks, Mayfield and the Browns’ offense has had a rough go of it. They managed only 23 total points and 2 touchdowns in that span. Last week Jarvis Landry and Antonio Callaway, Mayfield’s two leading receivers, converted a total of 4 out of 19 targets for 20 yards. Their leading rusher, Carlos Hyde, has only averaged 3.12 yards per carry over the last two weeks. While Njoku finally had a solid fantasy game, the rest of the Cleveland offense sputtered. So why buy now? The Browns just played perhaps the two best defenses they will play all year in Baltimore and the Chargers. Despite playing Baltimore again, the rest of their schedule is full of weak defenses. The receivers catch rate will positively regress. The running game will get it together. Njoku will continue his ascent. And Mayfield will be the prime beneficiary of all of this. Buy now when his price isn’t too high.
- David Johnson(Ari): Earlier in the year, Johnson looked to be in fantasy purgatory. He was in a dull offense that lacked creativity and innovation. However, that was before Josh Rosen took over at quarterback. In games that Bradford started, Johnson averaged 14.67 touches a game (criminally low) and .67 touchdowns per game. In games that Rosen has started, Johnson is averaging 21.67 touches and 1.3 touchdowns per game. DJ’s name and draft capital will have his value rocketing up soon. Buy while his price is at an all-time low.
Update: After the debacle on Thursday Night Football, Mike McCoy has been fired from his Offensive Coordinator position. QB coach Byron Leftwich has been promoted to OC. The change can only mean good things for David Johnson.
- Trey Burton(Chi): Through 7 weeks, Trey Burton is a TE1 (11th). In such a barren landscape of fantasy tight ends this season, you’re probably satisfied with those numbers. There are some red flags, however. For starters, his season high of targets (6) was in Week 1 and he’s yet to hit that again. Secondly, he has only 15 receptions on the year but 3 touchdowns. That’s a touchdown per catch rate of 20% which is ridiculously high. This trend is especially troubling because you would think his targets and catches going up as Trubisky and the rest of the offense gets more comfortable. Burton’s touchdown rate is unsustainable and if you are fortunate enough to have depth at the TE position, I would sell to a TE-needy team.
- Tom Brady(NE): Whether you believe he is the GOAT or not, it’s undeniable that he’s been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks for the past decade. Now that Edelman is back and Gordon is up to speed, you may be thinking Brady will have even better numbers. Fortunately, so will your potential trade partners. Last year, Brady was on a torrid pace, but when New England wraps up the AFC East really early and seems destined to clinch the AFC’s top seed, Brady takes his foot off the gas. Last year, in weeks 1-11, Brady averaged 18.9 fantasy points. However, at the end of the fantasy season and in the playoffs, when you needed Brady the most, he averaged 13.8 fantasy points a week. I don’t see this year being any different. If you have two good options at QB, I would sell Brady while the price is high. Try and shore up some of your other needs.
- Jordan Howard(Chi): I know I know, the goal is to sell high, and right now Jordan Howard is NOT high. We faced this last year with him, he followed up a .7 pt performance with a 31.4 pt performance. Later in the season, he followed up 3.9 and 4.3 pt performances with a 28.5 pt game. It was maddening. Matt Nagy and the Chicago coaching staff seems committed to Tarik Cohen being a larger part of the offense, and that means that Jordan Howard’s weaker games will start to become the norm. So, wait for that Jordan Howard explosion game, find a team that needs RB help badly, and pounce. Sell when Howard’s value spikes, then never look back.
Tell me your thoughts! Did I miss someone obvious? Am I the best fortune teller you’ve ever seen or just plain wrong? If you want to let me know or if you’re just looking for free fantasy football advice, you can find me on Twitter @Sam_Wise730 or you could use our company handle @tffgurus. Also, feel free to check out the podcast page @trophytimepod and shoot us a follow. See you next week.