The Trade Report – Offseason Buys and Sells
Hopefully, I’m catching you in the midst of your championship parade. Most fantasy leagues had their championship match Week 16. If yours is in week 17 you should 1)tell your commissioner they are psychotic and 2)check out our articles on hunting the waiver wire, our ppr rankings, and more. Meanwhile, for those of you in dynasty and keeper leagues, I’m going to get you prepped for the off-season. My favorite aspect of dynasty leagues comes into play right about now. If your season didn’t end the way you had hoped, don’t fret! You can always get a leg up on your competition by prepping for next year. During the off-season I’ll be going further in depth, by position, on some of the best buys, sells, holds going into next year. Below is a little preview.
Buy: Baker Mayfield
I have a feeling Baker Mayfield will be waking up dangerous a lot next year. In Baker’s first 6 games as a starter, he averaged 16.3 points and had one game over 20 points. In his last 6 games as a starter, he averaged 19.2 points and had 3 games over 20 points. After a full off-season with starter reps, Baker is ready to take the next step as a high-end QB1. Buy him.
Sell: Drew Brees
One big disclaimer with some of my sells is…if you are a contender and you don’t have a viable back-up, don’t trade them necessarily. Drew Brees is an ageless wonder. He was even in the MVP discussion before Patrick Mahomes ran away with it. However, Brees regressed as the year went on. During the first 10 weeks of the season, Brees averaged a studly 23.7 points per game, however over the last 6 weeks he’s averaged 13.3. I don’t necessarily expect that 13.3 average to carry over into next year, but Brees began to show his age towards the end of the season. If you aren’t a bona fide contender, sell him.
Hold: Ben Roethlisberger
Similar to Brees, this depends a lot on your expectations heading into next season. If you are in a full rebuild, I would sell him, but just because you might not be a championship worthy team next year, doesn’t me you sell Ben. In years past, Ben typically was a streaming option, playing him at home but benching him when away. This year he showed a consistency that he typically hadn’t. This year, at home, Ben averaged 22.1 points per game and 21.1 away from the Steel City. Surrounded by the best pair of WRs in the NFL, and a dynamite o-line makes Ben a stronghold going into next year.
Buy: Tarik Cohen
If you’re anything like me, you’d get real tired real quick when it comes to deciding between Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard. I’m here to tell, nay, implore you to give up on Jordan Howard and commit to Cohen. I see a lot of James White potential with Cohen. He is an elite pass-catcher who does a wonderful job at avoiding big hits. To me, that’s a sign of longevity for an RB. This year Cohen showed the consistency of a viable fantasy option that he didn’t show last year. His home/road splits are 15.9 vs. 13.8 while his first/second half of the season stats are 14.8 vs. 14.9. Cohen surpassed 15 points in over half his games. He’s ready to be a perfect RB2 in your lineup for years.
Sell: Philip Lindsay
Every year there is a fantasy darling that goes from undrafted to RB1. This year, Lindsay averaged almost 15 points per game and stole the backfield from a fellow rookie, and higher drafted, Royce Freeman. However, I’m here to tell you that Lindsay is fool’s gold. Due to his small frame and Denver having a crowded backfield, I don’t see Lindsay lasting. His injury will eat into his off-season work, and with Anthony Lynn likely out as the Denver HC, his starting spot is far from guaranteed. His injury might be just what Freeman needs to grab the starting job from him. I would sell while the hype is still there.
Hold: Derrick Henry
While everyone is hyping up Derrick Henry’s apparent coming out party, I am VERY tempted to make him my sell. And honestly, if you’re in a full rebuild mode, with Henry as one of your best assets, I would suggest just that. However, if you’re using Henry as your RB2 or flex play, I’d hold. I want to see what Tennessee does with their offense this summer. Do they address the line? Do they look to shift more carries away from Dion Lewis to Henry? I’m holding.
Buy: TY Hilton
Andrew Luck is back baby, and with his return, so is the return of the Indianapolis skill position players. Frank Reich is doing wonders for the Indy offense and I only expect the growth to continue into 2019. While I’m sure they will bring in a viable #2 receiver opposite TY, I expect that to only help Hilton’s production, not hinder it. Luck already relied on Hilton A TON, giving him almost 19% of the team target share (over 35% of WR target share). With the offense set to get even better in the off-season, I think TY’s arrow is pointed up. Buy now, while you still can.
Sell: Allen Robinson
Going into the season, I expect a nice season from Robinson. He’s still young and paired with a young QB. However, they never seemed to click (only caught 55 of 94 targets). I thought, in Matt Nagy’s offense, Robinson would thrive but he never showed the ability to separate and make plays that he showed back in his early Jacksonville days. That, plus the emergence of Chicago’s other receiving weapons like Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen have Robinson’s arrow pointed down. I would sell.
Hold: Corey Davis
I love Corey Davis. I think his talent far exceeds his reputation. That being said, his situation in Tennessee is less than ideal. The Titans offense seems to have taken a step back this year. I expected Corey Davis’ production to explode this year and it did not. However, his numbers are a little misleading. While Davis is 21st in receiving yardage among receivers, Tennessee is 2nd lowest in pass attempts this year. That means Corey Davis is a back-end WR2 while Tennessee is only throwing the ball more than one other NFL team. I didn’t make Davis a buy, because I am taking the wait and see approach to Tennessee players, but he’s much closer to a buy than a sell. That’s why I’m holding.
Buy: Dallas Goedert
When Philadelphia selected Goedert in the 2018 NFL Draft you could hear a collective groan from fantasy players everywhere. Goedert was the number 1 tight end coming out and it seemed like he got stuck behind one of the best tight ends in the game, Zach Ertz, for the foreseeable future. However, don’t fret. Goedert showed flashes of his immense talent throughout the entire year. Goedert finished as the TE21 on the year, despite playing behind Ertz. Goedert is a better version of Burton, but like Burton, I expect Goedert and Ertz to be on different teams in two years. In which case, Goedert will be a top 8 tight end in fantasy. Buy him now, while the price is low.
Sell: Eric Ebron
I’m actually a big Ebron fan. I bought him high when he was in Detroit and had faith his move to Indianapolis would bear fruit. And while he had a great year (TE4), this was a down year for tight ends. Furthermore, Ebron benefited greatly from Jack Doyle’s absence in the beginning and end of the year. Even though Indy showed it can support two tight ends, I expect Ebron to take a back seat to Doyle upon his return. Ebron’s value will never be higher than it is right now. Sell him to a tight end needy team.
Hold: Evan Engram
Engram was the shiny new toy heading into this past season. I wrote that he would disappoint owners this year and he did. However, much like last year, when OBJ went down, Engram produced. Now I won’t be betting on an OBJ injury next year to help Engram out, however, I will be holding out hope that the Giants improve their quarterback position. With a more talented passer and a more innovative offensive coordinator/coach, the Giants’ offense can certainly support a stud receiver, a stud running back, and a stud tight end. At the same time, it’s possible the Giants roll with Eli Manning another year. That’s why I’m holding.
Thanks for sticking with me this year, I hope I helped you out. Stay tuned for off-season articles focusing more on dynasty and keeper leagues. If you have any questions or you’re just looking for free fantasy football advice, you can find me on Twitter @Sam_Wise730 or you could use our company handle @tffgurus. Also, feel free to check out the podcast page @trophytimepod and shoot us a follow.