The Trade Report – NFL Trade Deadline Fallout
There are a lot of players that are going to be wearing different jerseys this week. The ripple effect from these recent trades will affect your teams both positively and negatively. Instead of your regularly scheduled buys and sells for week 9 I got your stock ups and downs for the NFL trade deadline fallout. Let’s roll.
Trade: Cleveland Browns trade RB Carlos Hyde to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a 2019 fifth-round draft pick.
- Browns Fallout: A crowded backfield can stifle talent. With Carlos Hyde out the way, Nick Chubb will be getting the 1st and 2nd down work. Duke Johnson has been getting criminally low touches, despite being a top 12 RB last year. There is little reason to believe that Hyde’s departure will signal an uptake in Duke’s usage. However, with the recent change in offensive coordinator, Duke Johnson could see an increase in 3rd down work.
My Verdict: Duke sees a slight stock rise, Chubb a big raise.
- Jacksonville Fallout: The Jacksonville side of things are essentially the opposite of Cleveland’s. Let’s start with Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville’s stud running back has a well-known injury history (why I was selling at the beginning of the year). The trade for Hyde tells me the Jacksonville is also worried about Fournette, so much so, they added extra insurance. Hyde’s arrival also eats up a large chunk of Yeldon’s value. Yeldon has been one of the better plays this year for a back-up. With Hyde’s presence, Yeldon’s lead backup role is gone. That has now turned into a committee. Finally, Carlos Hyde himself is in a worse position. In Cleveland, Hyde was getting the clear bulk of the carries. However, in Jacksonville, he is the clear back-up when Fournette returns. And even if Fournette’s injury persists, Hyde is sharing the role with Yeldon.
My Verdict: Hyde’s stock is down, Yeldon’s stock is down, and due to further injury concern, Fournette’s stock is also down.
Trade: The Oakland Raiders traded WR Amari Cooper to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2019 first-round draft pick.
- Raiders Fallout: Oakland has been a black hole for fantasy this year anyway. While Cooper’s talent is undeniable, he was barely being targeted by Carr. Now that Cooper is out of the picture, Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant could see a handful of more targets. However, neither promise to be viable options going forward.
My Verdict: Nelson and Bryant’s stock has risen but not enough to warrant your attention.
- Cowboys Fallout: Since Dak Prescott arrived in Dallas, he’s yet to have a true #1 wide receiver. Dez Bryant was past his prime and couldn’t separate from defenders. While Cooper has had his issues with drops, one thing he’s never struggled with his route running. Dak is not talented enough to throw his receivers open, so Cooper is a perfect weapon for Dak. On the other hand, Cooper’s is not ideal for the other Dallas receivers. While you were hopefully not relying on Hurns or Williams, rookie Michael Gallup was just starting to get more targets and more success. The arrival of Cooper sends Gallup back to your bench, along with the other Dallas receivers. There’s also the chance that, if Cooper finds real success up here, it could keep the defense honest and open up the box for Zeke.
My Verdict: Dak’s, Cooper’s, and maybe Zeke’s stock are up but the rest of the Dallas receivers go WAY down.
Trade: The Detroit Lions traded WR Golden Tate to the Eagles for a 2019 third-round draft pick.
- Lions Fallout: Similar to Cleveland’s trading of Hyde, Tate’s departure in Detroit opens up opportunity. Tate has been averaging just under 10 targets a game in Detroit. That’s 10 targets to be redistributed among Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. While Tate will be missed by the Detroit offense overall and especially his quarterback Matthew Stafford, the receivers he left behind will benefit.
My Verdict: Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay’s stocks are up, and Stafford’s is slightly down. It also couldn’t hurt to keep an eye on TJ Jones, he could step into Detroit’s WR3 role nicely.
- Eagles Fallout: For the Eagles, this trade is great for real life football, but not so much for fantasy. Tate gives Wentz an excellent underneath option with superb after the catch ability. From a fantasy perspective, Tate will almost certainly not get the almost 10 targets a game he was getting in Detroit. However, he may get enough to eat into Alshon’s and Ertz’s target share a little bit. Agholor does his best work from the slot, and Tate is most assuredly the better slot-receiver. That spells doom for Agholor’s value. Overall, the distribution of offensive weapons is just too great.
My Verdict: All Eagles’ weapons are seeing their stock dip, with a big drop for Agholor, plus smaller drops to Jeffrey, Ertz, Tate, and Goedert. The only player who could see an increase is Wentz.
Trade: The Denver Broncos traded WR Demaryius Thomas and their 2019 seventh rounder to the Texans for a 2019 fourth-round draft pick and their 2019 seventh rounder.
- Broncos Fallout: The Denver Broncos outlook is very similar to that of the Detroit Lions and Tate leaving. Thomas’ departure doesn’t change Emmanual Sanders’ outlook too much, Sanders was already the WR1 and getting the bulk of the targets. However, this is a big opportunity for stud rookie Courtland Sutton. The Broncos drafted Sutton to eventually replace Thomas and Desean Hamilton to eventually replace Sanders. Sutton’s opportunity comes earlier than expected and he’s now an ideal buy candidate.
My Verdict: Sanders’ stock gets a slight rise, Sutton a big rise, and Keenum a slight dip.
- Texans Fallout: Once it was announced that Will Fuller’s injury was season-ending, it only made sense that Houston would go out and trade for a #2 to DeAndre Hopkins. Thomas will be tasked withdrawing some of the extra attention away from Hopkins. I don’t expect a resurgence from Thomas back to the prime Peyton Manning years, however, Deshaun Watson is the best quarterback Thomas has had since Manning. The biggest stock faller on the Texans is rookie Keke Coutee. Coutee showed a lot of promise earlier in the year and seemed primed to step into the #2 role. The trade for Thomas put a stop to that chance abruptly.
My Verdict: Hopkins, Watson, and Thomas see small stock rises and Coutee see’s a big dip in his value.
Trade: The Green Bay Packers traded RB/WR Ty Montgomery to the Baltimore Ravens for a 2020 seventh-round pic
- Packers Fallout: There’s a lot of speculation about this trade. It seems to be less about a trade to better the team, but rather to teach Montgomery a lesson (see: end of Packers-Rams game). Either way, Montgomery is out. Montgomery wasn’t the biggest piece of the offense and you likely we not relying on him on your fantasy team. However, what this does is it thins out the Green Bay backfield a little more. I have little faith that Mike McCarthy will utilize Aaron Jones, his best running back, correctly. That being said, with one more body out of the way, it’s only natural that Jones will get more snaps. Other than this increase in opportunity, I don’t see this trade affecting the Packers too much.
My Verdict: I give Aaron Jones a slight stock raise and that’s it.
- Ravens Fallout: That Ravens love their pass-catching running backs. Since Ray Rice, they have utilized a RBBC in hopes they could find that perfect balance of 1st and 2nd down plodder and 3rd down pass-catching specialist. Buck Allen previously had the 3rd down role but the Montgomery acquisition has torpedoed his value. I don’t expect Collins’ role to change much as it remained fairly consistent last year when Woodhead came back. Montgomery I expect to get a little more, consistent usage in the Ravens offense.
My Verdict: I see a slight stock raise in Montgomery and a big stock dip in Buck Allen.
Tell me your thoughts! Did I miss something obvious? Am I the best fortune teller you’ve ever seen or just plain wrong? If you want to let me know or if you’re just looking for free fantasy football advice, you can find me on Twitter @Sam_Wise730 or you could use our company handle @tffgurus. Also, feel free to check out the podcast page @trophytimepod and shoot us a follow. See you next week.