Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week Two
Week one is always a risky play and I usually don’t submit a ton of lineups. We just don’t have enough data to make great decisions based on teams we haven’t seen play competitively. We didn’t think the Saints and Lions would implode defensively and we also couldn’t have predicted the Ravens, Buccaneers and Jets leading the league in points after one week. So neeedless to say I’m not surprised my hit rate was below average coming out of the gates. Week two will be my redemption song!
As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen, Emmanuel Sanders, Rob Gronkowski
First Downs: Andy Dalton, Antonio Brown, Jack Doyle
Punts: Dak Prescott, Danny Amendola, ASJ, Every running back and defense (sigh)
Alex Smith: $6,000 vs. Indianapolis (Home)
I really liked what I saw from Smith in week one and he delivered a healthy 19.6 draftkings points. Ryan Gosling has such a safe floor week to week that he’s a must start when he has a juicy match up like he does against Indy at home. Indy’s secondary didn’t get torched by Andy Dalton like we thought it would last week but that was largely due to Joe Mixon’s “coming out” party on the ground. I don’t expect Adrian Peterson to tear it up again this week so Smith should see more than thirty pass attempts and his scrambling ability is always a plus.
Jimmy Garoppolo: $6,000 vs. Detroit (Home)
The best looking man in the NFL struggled against Minnesota’s top rated defense in week one and now he faces the DISMAL Lions defense that got absolutely roasted by the New York Jets and rookie Quarterback Sam Darnold. This is a superb bounce back spot at home and I fully expect a 300 yard, multiple touchdown performance from Jimmy GQ. Magazine cover worthy!
Tyrod Taylor: $5,900 vs. New Orleans (Road)
Tuh-Rod put up one of the ugliest 24.6 point weeks I’ve ever seen last week against Pittsburgh in the inclement weather. He’s now in a dome, on the turf, against a Saints defense that got exposed by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Tampa Bay Bucs last week. I think this game also has shoot out potential and I want affordable pieces of both offenses in some of my lineups this week. Tuh-Rod goes for three total scores and exceeds his score from last week!
Christian McCaffrey: $7,000 vs. Atlanta (Road)
Dairy Sanders lead the Panthers in targets last week with nine and also tied his career high percentage of running back snaps at 85%. Greg Olsen is out indefinitely for the Panthers and both Deion Jones and Keanu Neal are on the I.R. for the Falcons. The middle of the field is going to be a barren waste land for the Falcons and Run CMC is going to be galloping through with a shit eating grin, football in hand.
James Conner: $6,700 vs. Kansas City (Home)
36 touches, 192 yards, 2 touchdowns and 100% of the running back snaps for Conner last week. He’s going to be popular in lineups this week, needless to say. I don’t care. I’m snorting the chalk and not looking back.
Tevin Coleman: $5,300 vs. Carolina (Home)
Devonta Freeman did not practice on Thursday with a knee injury he suffered on opening kickoff night. This should clear the path for Coleman to receive the bulk of the back field work against a Panthers run defense that is without Thomas Davis and allowed almost five yards a carry in week one. 20 touches, 100 yards and a score. Easy money.
James White: $4,500 vs. Jacksonville (Road)
With both Rex Burkhead (Concussion) and Sony Michel (Xbox better) statuses up in the air for Sunday the only healthy backs for the Pats are White and newly signed Kenyon Barner. The Jags defense is one of the best but they do struggle against pass catching backs thus making “sweet feet” a solid play based on volume and skill set.
Josh Gordon: $5,800 vs. New Orleans (Road)
It was a bit of a slow start for Flash in week one but he was able to haul in a TD grab on his only reception at least. Gordon should see a healthy amount of Ken Crawley this week as Ken’s ashy remains have been put back together after Desean Jackson incinerated him and the Saints secondary in week one. Another low cost player in a match up with a high Vegas point total. Me likey.
Will Fuller V: $5,300 vs. Tennessee (Road)
As of this writing Fuller looks like a go this week. Fuller is a great tournament play as he’s the prototypical deep threat that offers massive upside against weak secondaries. Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler don’t exactly strike fear into any receivers hearts and Watson looked like he could use a play maker like Fuller last week against the Pats. Let’s get ready for blast off shall we?
Jamison Crowder: $4,900 vs. Indianapolis (Home)
A measly four targets and three receptions in week one left many Crowder owners disappointed. Let’s turn that frown upside down! A great match up awaits for my second favorite Jamison, Boie being the first. I think he has double digit target upside this week and I expect a 7 catch, 85 yard and a score stat line. Hail!
Dante Pettis: $4,000 vs. Detroit (Home)
Some of us in the fantasy community have been big Pettis fans since his college days at Washington. With the injury and doubtful status of Marquise Goodwin Pettis enters Sunday as a starter opposite Pierre Garcon. In relief of Goodwin last week Pettis put together a 5 target, 2 catch, 61 yard, touchdown performance and just barely missed a second score. I’ve called him my 2018 JuJu Smith-Schuster, an under the radar second round NFL draft pick that emerged in his rookie year. I’m putting my money where my mouth is on Pettis, Niners passing attack stacks!
Jordan Reed: $5,000 vs. Indianapolis (Home)
I’ll take Reed against a very inexperienced Colts line backing corps. allll day. My second favorite stack of the week is Smith, Crowder and Reed.
George Kittle: $3,800 vs. Detroit (Home)
Niners. Passing. Attack. Stack. JG+DP+GK= $$$
Jonnu Smith: $3,100 vs. Houston (Home)
Delanie Walker is done for the season, Corey Davis has been on the injury report and Marcus Mariota is nursing an elbow injury, potentially limiting his medium to deep throwing ability. All these signs point to Smith potentially having a coming out party in Tennessee.
L.A. Chargers: $3,600 vs. Buffalo (Road)
A rookie QB with almost no play makers to help him. Chalky but worth it.
Minnesota: $2,600 vs. Green Bay (Road)
I’m a bit puzzled by The Vikings price this week. I know it’s on the road but the Packers didn’t look like world beaters Sunday night and both Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are banged up. SKOL!
Tampa Bay: $2,200 vs. Philadelphia (Home)
Ok, hear me out. The Bucs run defense and pass rush looked good last week against the Saints so this boils down to how much you believe in Nick Foles who looked like Nick Foles of the Chiefs last week not the Super Bowl MVP. It’s a gamble that could pay off. How big are your onions?
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week two! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!