Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week Four
I’m currently laying on the floor with ice on my back as I finish this installment of my Draftkings player picks. I’ll survive thankfully but I’ve never felt so old. No intro banter this week. Let’s dive in!
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Tyler Boyd, George Kittle, Bears D
First Downs: Jordan Howard, Tyreek Hill
Punts: Andrew Luck, Corey Clement, Keelan Cole, Allen Robinson, Will Dissly, Vikings D, Dallas D
Eli Manning: $5,600 vs. New Orleans (Home)
Eli looked more like his brother Peyton last week as he completed over 80% of his passes for almost three hundred yards, two scores and zero picks. He now gets a juicy match up at home against a Saints defense that gave up another 37 points, four hundred yards and five scores. I love a Eli, Beckham and Barkley stack this week and you have to consider Sterling Shepard as well with Evan Engram out for this game.
Andy Dalton: $5,400 vs. Atlanta (Road)
I know Dalton threw four interceptions in week three but if you look at the tape two of those were on tipped/deflected passes and Dalton threw for 352 yards and two scores. Atlanta is hemorrhaging points to the quarterback position and the Bengals are a top five scoring offense so far this year. You can trust Dalton and build your lineups around him. I love a Dalton, Bernard (if Mixon is out), Boyd and Eifert stack this week. It’s so affordable and the upside is rich.
Josh Allen: $5,100 vs. Green Bay (Road)
Is Josh Allen for real? I have no idea! I think this is a good spot to play him in a GPP. Low ownership with some upside against a leaky Green Bay defense. Why not?
Ezekiel Elliott: $7,700 vs. Detroit (Home)
Feed the beast! Zeke is touching the ball on half of the Cowboys offensive plays and is a locked in bell cow. I know the Lions defense looked much better against the Patriots on Sunday night but Zeke has looked great this year and he’s extra motivated after blaming himself for last weeks loss against the Seahawks. Next stop, narrative street!
Matt Breida: $5,800 vs. L.A. Chargers (Road)
C.J. Beathard was a check down master last year on his way to getting Carlos Hyde 50 receptions so i’m thinking the same will hold true for Breida in a game where the Niners should be playing from behind. Breida’s hands appear to be markedly improved over last year so you can trust his role in the passing game especially with just Alfred Morris to contend with in the back field. Oh, and by the way Breida’s leading the NFL in rushing too.
James White: $5,400 vs. Miami (Home)
Rex Burkhead was just put on the I.R. with a neck injury so it’s the White and Michel show in a huge home game for the defending AFC champs. I think the Pats bounce back here and the Miami linebacking corp has struggled against pass catching backs so White really has a chance to show out as one of Brady’s most trusted weapons. I also like Michel this week at his price of $4,500. Maybe I was a week early predicting his breakout? I sure hope so, for fantasy and real football purposes. Squish the fish!
Aaron Jones: $4,100 vs. Buffalo (Home)
We didn’t get an accurate look at the Bills run defense last week as the Vikings were pass heavy playing from multiple scores down in a Bills blow out. Aaron Jones is the juice in this backfield as has the big play ability to really pop in the GPP format. He averaged seven yards a carry in his debut and looked great in between the tackles. he’s sneaky elusive. Look for his role to increase for a struggling Packers offense that needs so more “oomph”.
Odell Beckham Jr.: $8,700 vs. New Orleans (Home)
The Saints defense continues to crater against the pass and OBJ is coming off his best game of the season. I’m playing the trends here in what hopes to be a shoot out in NY.
Kenny Stills: $5,800 vs. New England (Road)
I love me some Kenny Stills this year. Always under the radar in most leagues and he used to be a boom or bust GPP play but his consistency is really showing he can be a cash game play now as well. The Pats have some problems in their secondary and made the Lions look like world beaters. Eric Rowe and Patrick Chung appear on the right track to play but that’s not nearly enough for me to fade Tannehill’s most reliable target.
Tyler Boyd: $4,600 vs. Atlanta (Road)
Year three break out! One of the biggest surprises of the NFL season thus far, Boyd is seeing consistent target volume and making the best of it averaging over 100 yards and a score the past two weeks. I think the upward trend continues against a shaky Falcons defense. This might be the last week Boyd is a must start at his cheap price so make sure to roster him for those big returns!
Taylor Gabriel: $3,900 vs. Tampa Bay (Home)
Usage on the rise and now Anthony Miller is on the shelf with a shoulder injury. If you’ve seen the Buccaneers play football lately you probably know they can be passed on with ease. The only risk here is Mitchell Trubisky and his lack of play making thus far in 2018. GPP play only.
Trey Burton: $3,900 vs. Tampa Bay (Home)
See Taylor Gabriel. Again, not trusting him for my cash lineups but GPP usage has the chance to pay off.
Tyler Eifert: $3,800 vs. Atlanta (Road)
The Bengals stack continues! Load up on those tigers ladies and gentleman!
Austin Hooper: $2,900 vs. Cincinnati (Home)
The Bengals have been one of the worst units in defending the TE position and the Falcons passing game has been humming over the last two weeks. I’ll take a shot on the most affordable part of that unit.
Philadelphia: $3,300 vs. Tennessee (Road)
The Titans offense stinks worse than a bag of trash left in the mojave dessert.
Seattle: $3,200 vs. Arizona (Road)
I’ll take my chances on a defense against a rookie quarterback and an offensive coordinator that doesn’t know how to use his best players.
Buffalo: $2,000 vs. Green Bay (Road)
I loved what the Bills did against the Viking offense last week so why not ride the hot hand against an injured Aaron Rodgers? YOLO!
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week four! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!