Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week Eleven
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! You won’t see me again until Black Friday so wanted to wish you and yours a great holiday. I know I’m going to eat too much food while I watch football all day Thursday in a small home with 15 of my friends and family. Sharing that one bathroom is a blast! And let me tell you about that heat, I’ll be in shorts and a t-shirt so I don’t melt. Ah, the sacrifices we make to be with loved ones. I wouldn’t have it any other way honestly. That’s how great memories and stories are made! Now let’s stuff our faces and our wallets this week so we can go crazy spending that dough next weekend in those packed retail stores! If you are at Best Buy in Manchester, NH come say hi!
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Jared Goff, Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, David Johnson, Aaron Jones, Austin Hooper, Chargers D
First Downs: Josh Gordon, Maurice Harris, Nick Vannett, Kansas City D
Punts: Duke Johnson Jr., Mike Evans, David Njoku, Indy D
Marcus Mariota: $5,500 vs. Indianapolis (Road)
The arrow has been trending up over the last two weeks for the flyin’ Hawaiian. He looks to be all the way back after an impressive performance against the Patriots. Mariota found the end zone twice and that was enough to pay off his bargain bin price last week. The Colts meanwhile just gave up a 26/38, 320 yard, 2 TD performance to a previously struggling Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense. Love Mariota to exceed his numbers from last week pretty easily.
Dak Prescott: $5,200 vs. Atlanta (Road)
The Dak attack is back! Have you seen that ridiculous Skip Bayless video? Google it. It’s so cringe worthy! All of a sudden Dak finds himself in the conversation as a QB1 again after four good fantasy games in a row. He’s rushed for a TD in three of those games and has averaged 250 yards passing and 1.5 TD’s which makes him a great play against an Atlanta defense that just let the Browns roll them over. The Falcons do get stud LB Deion Jones back this week but alas it won’t be enough to contain Dak.
Case Keenum: $4,800 vs. L.A. Chargers (Road)
My sneaky QB play of the week! Keenum should be a lock for 250 yards passing and two scores this week against their division rival Chargers. A Keenum, Sanders, Lindsay and Heurmann stack is super affordable and cat burglar sneaky in GPP’s.
Alvin Kamara: $8,200 vs. Philadelphia (Home)
A no brainer in cash games and a potentially under owned asset in tournaments as the Eagles, on paper, have a good run defense. I saw what Zeke Elliott did to them last week and I’m going to go out on a limb and say Kamara should have a nice day on Sunday. Running back is super heavy at the top this week so look to stack Kamara with another stud like Melvin Gordon or Zeke to really maximize the points and the position.
Christian McCaffrey: $8,000 vs. Detroit (Road)
Much like Kamara, Dairy Sanders floor is safer than the pentagon and he sports a ceiling like the sistine chapel. It’s equally beautiful really. The Panthers released C.J. Anderson this past week so that only further cements Run CMC as a locked in bell cow back who will touch the ball 20 plus times every week. I like those kind of players! The cherry on top is the match up against the Lions who have improved against the run as of late but still are vulnerable to pass catching backs. Lock CMC in to as many lineups as possible.
Mark Ingram: $4,700 vs. Philadelphia (Home)
I’m staying away from Ingram in cash games but at this low price I can’t resist him in tournaments. On just sixteen touches last week Ingram rolled up 162 yards from scrimmage and a score in a blowout win in Cincinnati. This game has the second highest Vegas total and I want some affordable exposure to it. It could end up being a track meet in the big easy!
Alshon Jeffrey: $6,300 vs. New Orleans (Road)
This is another nice piece to get exposure to at the price. Alshon has been relatively quiet the past two weeks as he’s been locked down by Jalen Ramsey and then Byron Jones. Marshon Lattimore is a good corner but he’s been beatable. I’m betting on Jeffrey righting the ship on the road in a possible shootout. Tournaments only.
Amari Cooper: $5,400 vs. Atlanta (Road)
I have a feeling Mr. Cooper is who everyone is going to hang with this week and for good reason. He’s seen 18 targets in the two games he’s been a Cowboy and his tape has looked great. I’ll take the volume combined with the talent for $1,000 Alex. My only concern is ownership percentage as it may be high enough that you will want to pivot to another player in this price range in some of your builds.
Courtland Sutton: $4,600 vs. L.A. Chargers (Road)
This is a risky play but could pay off huge in tournaments. All the research says that Sutton should struggle as the Chargers have been one of the best teams at limiting the primary outside receiver. What if I told you those receivers were Jordy Nelson (twice), David Moore, Antonio Callaway, Kelvin Benjamin, Marquise Goodwin, Brandin Cooks and Sammy Watkins? Not exactly a murders row. Sprinkle in some Sutton ladies and gentleman.
Vance Mcdonald: $4,000 vs Jacksonville (Road)
Narrative street play! Mcdonald caught ten passes on a whopping sixteen targets against Jacksonville in the playoffs last year. I do not expect a repeat of that performance but I do expect his usage to increase in a plus match up for him.
Ricky Seals-Jones: $2,900 vs Oakland (Home)
His targets were up last week and he faces a Raider team that has no fight left. Why not?
Jonnu Smith: $2,700 vs. Indianapolis (Road)
He’s scored two weeks in a row and is an athletic freak. A cheap TD is all you need here if you are looking to save some money in your lineups.
Arizona: $3,100 vs. Oakland (Home)
See Ricky Seals-Jones
Carolina: $2,800 vs. Detroit (Road)
Detroit’s offense has struggled mightily and they may be without Marvin Jones this week. I like Carolina to bounce back after getting their asses whooped last Thursday night by the Steelers.
N.Y. Giants: $2,400 vs. Tampa Bay (Home)
As much as we all love Fitzmagic he is turnover prone and the Giants are the dirt cheap play of the week. The Bucs put up over 400 yards of offense last week but only scored three points, woof.
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week eleven! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather or @TFFGurus. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!