3 Salary Cap Dynasty Resolutions for 2019
Let’s be honest, I’m not going go to the gym any more often than I do now, I’ll likely keep spending the same amount of money, and I certainly won’t watch less football. You are in the same boat, either you know it or you are one of the 94% of people who give up their resolutions by January 12th; so maybe we can all look at some more attainable, Salary Cap Fantasy Football themed resolutions that will make us all feel less like quitters and might bring us some more wins next year, and the next, and the next. Anyway, Happy New Year everyone.
Resolution 1: Stop using dynasty rankings for salary cap decisions, and start using yearly rankings.
Salary Cap Fantasy Football is not dynasty. I mean, it is, but we shouldn’t rank players like it is! 10 different salary cap league commissioners generously gave me access to their league rosters. Of the 116 rosters, the average contract is 1.7 years long and the mode (most common) is… wait for it… 1 year. Let’s compare s0me players on Dynasty Pros Dynasty/Keeper rankings (D)vs the same player’s standard rankings (S).
46-(D) Calvin Ridley 73-(S)
48-(D) Courtland Sutton 71-(S)
83-(D) Doug Baldwin 57-(S)
93-(D) Chris Carson 22-(S)
So just be cognizant of the fact that if you continue to use dynasty rankings you will be massively over-valuing some of your players, paying for them like you are paying for their entire career when really you are getting 1.7 years on average, and your sharper league mates will scoop up the Baldwin’s and Carson’s of the world who you are under-valuing.
Resolution 2: Start letting the experts be the experts. I’m a below average talent evaluation/predictor. I might even be simply horrible at it. But I am an above average fantasy player, especially Cap.
On my 21st birthday, after looking at a net loss mess of sports tickets, this man next to me looked around, waived his arm at the expensive ceiling/couches/TV’s and said “they don’t gamble here… only we gamble”. Think about it, we can count the number of people who have consistently beat Vegas at sports betting (without some scam) on one hand. I’m rambling but the point is this: the amateurs gambling at predictions include all the “experts” on Yahoo, ESPN, and, yes, Fantasy Gurus. Some are better gamblers than others, but we are all still gambling to some degree. But there are people who are using computer models we can’t even comprehend and their ability to put food on the table for their family depends on their metrics, and I want to use those people to win my leagues because they get paid because they are way, way better than me.
For next year, choose either DraftKings or FanDuel (whichever matches your league’s scoring most closely) and set your lineups based off of their value. They consider matchups, injured players, weather, and everything else under the sun. Should I start Gus Edwards or Corey Davis in my FLEX? Barring injury, check pricing, set it and forget about it. I’m going to take advantage of their computer models without giving them a rake. Or, don’t, and gamble to your heart’s content.
Resolution 3: Categorize your contracts. Take an hour and categorize every remaining contract on your team before the NFL draft. I suggest looking at it in a percentage. For example, if your salary cap is $200, and you have $20 of cap penalties calculate the actual and the “available” cap consumption of each players contract (use Excel or Sheets to make this way faster… you already have one set up for your roster I bet). So you have Chubb at $16 for 3 years (2019-2021). His annual contract would be 8% actual and 9% of your “available” cap-space. If you had David Johnson at $60 (true story for one of the guys in my league) for 4 more years he would be 30% actual and 33% available. I know, I know.
Once you have done this for each player, rank them in 4 tiers. “Great, fine, poor, and cut”. Hopefully, you don’t have any “cut” worthy contracts because if you did you would have just cut them right? But for whatever you rank as poor, work hard to shop those before your rookie draft. An aging DJ taking 33% of your cap-space while there are lots of great FA are on the waiver? It’s time to shop him. Maybe someone will actually give you a 3rd round for him. You win. Maybe you have to give a 3rd and DJ just to clear him… still, likely worth it. Your real goal? Start FA with no “poor or cut” contracts and less than 10% cap penalties. You do that and you are set up to immediately be better than 75% of your league mates.
Resolution 4: Eat salads and work out more. Or not. Just go win your league!