The Trade Report – Week 11 Buys and Sells
Last week we saw some MONSTROUS performances. If you’re like me and you try to own as many New Orleans Saints players as you can, it really paid off. Others weren’t so lucky. There were some big studs on byes, in particular, DeAndre Hopkins and Adam Thielen. So now that you’re getting those guys back, you’re losing all your shares of the suddenly fantasy relevant Cleveland Browns players, along with Matt Breida and George Kittle. With my help, I hope you feel confident to work through these tough bye weeks
- Marcus Mariota (TENN)– As a Corey Davis truther, I just kept telling myself “Mariota isn’t healthy, once he is…look out!” As the season progressed, I began to worry. Not anymore. The last 3 weeks, Mariota has averaged 20.4 points (standard scoring), compared to his first 4 starts where he averaged 12.7 points. With Mariota rounding into form and the Tennessee running game taking shape(146.3 yards per game over the last three weeks), Mariota is primed to finish the season strong. Buy him now before his price goes too high.
- Dak Prescott(DAL)– Another dual-threat quarterback who started the season slowly, but is picking up steam, is Dak Prescott. Over his first 5 games, Prescott finished as a top 12 QB ZERO times and a top 24 QB only twice. Those are the numbers of a quarterback you should drop. However, over his last 4 weeks, Dak has finished as the QB2, QB3, QB15, and QB7. The rest of the season, Dak faces only one defense outside the top 10 in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks (Washington-11th). You can confidently buy Dak now while owners might still be sour from his early season struggles, and trust he’ll put up top 12 QB numbers for you.
- D.J. Moore(CAR)– If you’re anything like me, you have a hard time trusting any of Cam Newton’s receivers. However, Moore might be an exception. Over the past few weeks, Moore has not only gathered more targets than Funchess, but he’s seen a nice trend himself. In his first four games, Moore averaged 2 targets per game. Over the past 5 weeks, he’s averaging over double that. When Cam Newton is efficient, he is dangerous and his receivers produce. Cam’s completion percentage is currently 9.2% higher than his career average. Moore stands to benefit from this surge by Cam, buy him now before his stock climbs to where it should be.
- Matt Breida(SF) – Believe me, I like Matt Breida. And if you are relying on him to fill your RB spots, by all means, keep plugging him in. However, this article is for you to buy players whose value may be too low and to sell players whose value may be inflated. Breida’s value is inflated. Yes, he had a monster week, but it was vs. a poor Giants team that is playing for the number 1 overall draft pick. Your league mates might see Breida’s monster game and think it’s a sign of things to come, but that production is an outlier. Breida averaged almost 6 yards per carry and over 10 yards per catch. While he is a nice running back, Breida’s production is unsustainable and should be sold at this inflated price.
- Derrick Henry(TENN) – Speaking of unsustainable, Derrick Henry has been on a tear. Over the last 3 weeks, Henry has 4 touchdowns. While impressive, if you look at his yardage totals (36 rushing yards per game) you’ll note that the touchdowns are an outlier. Over the past three weeks, Dion Lewis has still out-carried (52 to 39 carries), out-rushed (210 to 108 rushing yards), and most importantly, out-snapped (74% vs. 26% of offensive snaps) Henry. This recent string of success is nothing more than an outlier in an otherwise poor fantasy season. Sell while his value is higher than it should be.
- Chris Carson(SEA) – Despite Carson returning from injury, I am staying away. I know that Carson has shown the most promise out of the Seattle backfield, however that backfield is not one I want any part of. Over the past few weeks, both Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis have seen an increase in usage, even with Carson healthy. That tells me that the Seahawks plan to just ride the hot hand, which is virtually impossible to predict. So don’t try. Try and sell Carson to a running back-needy league mate and get whatever you can for him. The Seattle backfield is too volatile to rely on the rest of the season.
Tell me your thoughts! Did I miss someone obvious? Am I the best fortune teller you’ve ever seen or just plain wrong? If you want to let me know or if you’re just looking for free fantasy football advice, you can find me on Twitter @Sam_Wise730 or you could use our company handle @tffgurus. Also, feel free to check out the podcast page @trophytimepod and shoot us a follow. See you next week.