The Trade Report – Stock Up, Stock Down
Well, we’ve finally made it. If you’re still alive in your league you managed to survive the black hole of Keenan Allen’s zero points. You successfully waded through the toxic wasteland of single digit quarterbacks like Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Dak Prescott. You navigated through the injury-plague running back graveyard of Lamar Miller and Aaron Jones. You traversed tight end purgatory where 3 of the top 6 were Garrett Celek, Chris Manhertz, and Jeremy Sprinkle. All in all, we saw some juggernaut teams fall this week, all because of the fickle beast that we all love, called Fantasy Football. If you’re still here, that means you made it. You’re in the championship. I have a few more players whose stock is on the move for the final week of the season. Now, on to glory.
- Josh Allen(BUFF): Josh Allen has quietly been putting together a strong string of fantasy games. Over the past 4 weeks, Allen has averaged over 24 fantasy points per game. This week he gets the Patriots and while I don’t expect him to have a great passer rating after the final whistle, I expect his fantasy stat line to look nice. Patriots have yielded the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and that’s largely due to their struggles vs. mobile QBs. Allen has that talent and will look to utilize his running ability, which gives him a high fantasy floor. His stock is up this week.
- Marcus Mariota(TENN): Mariota has given us much better fantasy games at home. He averages 16.8 points at home vs. 10.9 away, and two of his home games we duds vs. elite defenses in Baltimore and Jacksonville. This week, Mariota gets Washington who is subpar at best, yielding large games to Eli Manning and Dak Prescott. His stock is up this week. Play him.
- Chris Carson(SEA): Reshard Penny is out. And while Penny isn’t infringing on Carson’s role as Seattle’s number one running back, Carson has better games when Penny is out. In the 3 games Penny sat, Carson touched the ball 75 times for 442 yards. That’s almost 5.9 yards per touch. His stock is up for your fantasy championship. Start him.
- John Kelly(LAR): This suggestion is contingent on Todd Gurley sitting. Gurley injured his knee mid game last week, however he came back. McVay has been holding Gurley out of practice this week and insists its precautionary. However, if they choose to rest their franchise back, Kelly slots in and becomes an immediate RB2 and a decent flex play. His stock could be on the rise.
- Tre’Quan Smith(NO): Smith has been virtually non-existent the last few weeks. However, his home/road splits are vastly different. His last two games yielded NOTHING, so you know now is the time to buy. In Smith’s last 3 home games, he’s amassed 291 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. That’s dynamite production. Back in the comforts of his home dome, I expect Smith to flourish. Stock is up.
- Mike Williams(LAC): I know I used the Williams’ boys last week but I am doubling down this week. We saw what Mike Williams can do with the target volume. If Keenan Allen remains sidelined with a hip injury, Williams is a borderline WR1 in the dynamite Charger offense.
- Chris Herndon(NYJ): Herndon has been one of those guys I’ve kept my eye on all season. While he is averaging 3.8 targets per game this season, in the last 4 weeks he’s averaged 5 targets. The Jets offense is incredibly limited but Sam Darnold is showing great promise and growth. If you don’t have a bona fide tight end to start, Herndon is a solid, stock-rising, streamer.
- Evan Engram(NYG): Initially I thought Engram was done being productive this season. However, with the injury to Odell Beckham Jr, Engram has gotten much more usage. Over the last two weeks, Engram has averaged 8.5 targets and 76 yards. If OBJ can’t go again, Engram looks to be one of the best options at tight end this week. Stock is back up for one last week.
- Lamar Jackson(BAL): Jackson will always be a sneaky good play because of his nice floor. However, the Chargers defense is buzzing. Last week they held the vaunted Kansas City MVP candidate, Patrick Mahomes, to only 246 total yards. The Chargers have a chance to grab the #1 seed in the AFC if they keep this up and Jackson’s lack of weapons and experience will make him a poor play this week. Stock down.
- Jamaal Williams(GB): Yes Aaron Jones is out and yes Williams will get the opportunity to be the lead back in Green Bay. However, when given the chance, Williams has shown he’s one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL. So far this year Williams averaged only 3.72 yards per carry, despite having Aaron Rodgers at QB and elite weapons on the outside. While others are raising his stock, I’m telling you it shouldn’t be.
- Carolina/Green Bay receivers (CAR/GB): So you’re probably disappointed by the performances of the Green Bay and Carolina quarterbacks as of late. Well, now Cam Newton is being shut down for the season. Also, Aaron Rodgers is banged up and Green Bay is considering resting him. That doesn’t bode well for their weapons. The Carolina receivers were just gaining traction before Newton’s injury flared up and Rodgers elevates the play of his receivers unlike most quarterbacks (outside of Davante Adams). Without their franchise QBs at the helm, I shudder to think what kind of production you should expect to receive when you need it the most. Stock is down on both the Carolina and Green Bay receivers.
- Kyle Rudolph(MINN): Rudolph’s season has largely been a disappointment. He is TE14 during a very down year for tight ends. I believe Tyler Conklin, Minnesota’s young, super athletic back-up TE, will soon surpass Rudolph. Conklin led the team in receiving yards last week and Rudolph only had 3 targets and 23 yards. You can’t trust Rudolph to produce this week. Stock is plummeting.
Thanks for sticking with me this year, I hope I helped you out. Stay tuned for off-season articles focusing more on those of you in dynasty and keeper leagues. If you have any questions or you’re just looking for free fantasy football advice, you can find me on Twitter @Sam_Wise730 or you could use our company handle @tffgurus. Also, feel free to check out the podcast page @trophytimepod and shoot us a follow.