Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week Twelve
I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving with family and friends! There is nothing like eating amazing home cooked food and watching football all day, it’s the best. We give thanks on Thursday and then we turn around and spend billions of dollars on Black Friday to give thanks again come Christmas time. It’s quite the turn of events when you sit down and think about it. I have a couple “Black Friday” bargain basement deals for you this week and I’m hoping they are good gifts but if not, just keep the receipt.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Mark Ingram, Vance Mcdonald, Jonnu Smith, Giants D
First Downs: Dak Prescott, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Courtland Sutton
Punts: Marcus Mariota, Case Keenum, Amari Cooper, Alshon Jeffrey, Ricky Seals-Jones, Panthers D, Cardinals D
Jameis Winston: $6,000 vs. San Francisco (Home)
Did you know that the QB position for the Bucs is the number two scoring QB after Patrick Mahomes? Did you also know that through ten games the Tampa Qb’s have thrown for the most yardage of all time!? Jameis is back at the helm in a plus match up at home. I think he’s here to stay and goes for 300 yards and three scores this week!
Russell Wilson: $5,600 vs. Carolina (Road)
I’m loving the pricing on Danger Russ this week. His floor is rock solid and he’s a great play in cash games, even on the road. Wilson has actually averaged more fantasy points on the road this year. He should pay off at 4X this week pretty easily as he’s averaged 22 draftkings points a game over his last four contests.
Baker Mayfield: $5,500 vs. Cincinnati (Road)
Fresh of the bye, Baker is ready to hunt some Bengals! He’s coming off a three score game against Atlanta and now faces a Cincinnati defense that is atrocious. They looked OK last week but that was only because the Ravens ran the ball 40 times with Lamar Jackson at QB. I expect the Bengals to show their stripes against the Browns this week.
David Johnson: $7,300 vs. L.A. Chargers (Road)
I’ll take the least expensive elite running back that will touch the ball twenty plus times for $1,000 Alex. Saquon is a great play, even at $9,100, so I don’t blame you for building around him. I like flexibility so I will pivot to DJ coming off a big game against the Raiders. The Chargers run defense got exposed by Phillip Lindsay last week and I think DJ can log a couple of scores and at least 125 yards this week. I can’t wait to see how the Chargers lose this week.
Matt Breida: $5,700 vs. Tampa Bay (Road)
I love Breida as a mid priced option this week. People may forget that before his bye he had a 100 yard from scrimmage and two score game against the Giants. He faces the Bucs this week, who are the greenest of lights against the running back position. This game should remain pretty close so Breida should see plenty of usage and hopefully he doesn’t get dinged up like he does EVERY WEEK, lol.
Josh Adams: $3,800 vs. N.Y. Giants (Home)
Lock him in to every lineup you build. He’s your free space running back folks! Will ownership be high? Yes it will but Adams will allow you to have the maximum flexibility needed to pack in as many studs as you can. Oh, and he will probably net you 5x this week as the Giants have been torched on the ground by Matt Breida and Peyton Barber the last two weeks.
Odell Beckham Jr.: $8,800 vs. Philadelphia (Road)
No. Brainer. The Eagles secondary is an absolute mess and just gave up big games to Michael Thomas and Trequan Smith last week so OBJ is the absolute chalk play. I’ll have him mixed in my lineups here and there but whatever you do don’t get too overweight on him in your builds.
D.J. Moore: $4,600 vs. Seattle (Home)
Recency bias alert!!! I think we are being invited to a breakout party and I don’t want to miss it. The Seahawks allow 230 passing yards a game and Moore is establishing himself as the number one WR target for Cam Newton. He’s a tournament dream and if you played him last week you know exactly what I’m talking about.
Chris Hogan: $3,800 vs. N.Y. Jets (Road)
I have no statistical data to back up this play. It’s purely a gut call on a guy that could blow up and help you in tournaments. The Patriots are fresh off the bye and Hogan has been MIA most of the season in a struggling pass attack. I’m willing to bet they start getting Hogan more involved. Tread carefully.
George Kittle: $6,200 vs Tampa Bay (Road)
Kittle is an absolute YAC monster and now he faces the TB defense that is atrocious against opposing tight ends. Kittle with a 50 yard TD wouldn’t surprise me in the least bit.
Eric Ebron: $4,000 vs Miami (Home)
A donut last week after a three touchdown performance in week 10, wowzers! A bunch of saltiness will keep his ownership down and I think he bounces back nicely against the fish men at home.
Cameron Brate: $3,600 vs. San Francisco (Home)
With O.J. Howard going on I.R. it’s clearly “Make Cameron Brate again” season! Jameis loves him and he’s about to be the chalk play at TE this week. What a crazy turn of events.
Indianapolis: $2,900 vs. Miami (Home)
It looks like Tannehill is back this week and the Dolphins are short on playmakers. A tasty recipe for the Colts this holiday weekend.
Buffalo: $2,700 vs. Jacksonville (Home)
The Jags are just awful. The only concern here is Fournette popping off. If the Bills can play good run defense the rest will fall into place and Bortles will Bortle.
San Francisco: $2,300 vs. Tampa Bay (Road)
The dirt cheap play of the week! We all know Jameis is prone to turn the ball over so I’ll take a shot on the Niners defense in tournaments.
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week eleven! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather or @TFFGurus. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!