Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week Six
Week six is upon us! Welcome to the only aspect of fantasy football where injuries don’t completely derail your team! Lost Odell Beckham Jr.? Who cares! He does not matter here! That’s actually kind of nice to say coming from someone who has lost multiple studs in one league. Week five was yet another good one and I hope you enjoyed some success in your lineups. The fantasy landscape is changing rapidly and I am here to guide you through like Cole Trickle going high through the smoke, completely over coming his fears!
As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Duke Johnson Jr., Andre Ellington, Buck Allen, T.Y. Hilton, Hunter Henry, Austine Sefarian-Jenkins, Baltimore defense, Miami defense
First Downs: Carson Palmer, Le’Veon Bell, Jordy Nelson, Joe Flacco
Punts: Jay Cutler, Tyler Lockett, Devante Parker (inj.),Jesse James, San Francisco defense
On to this weeks picks:
Deshaun Watson: $6,700 vs. Cleveland (Home)
All I have to say about Watson over the last few weeks is “wow”. I never saw this coming. Watson is currently the QB2 on the season and has back to back games of five touchdowns! He faces a Cleveland defense that gives up a passing touchdown on 7% of pass attempts. Watson currently throws a TD pass on every 8.3% of attempts per Graham Barfield. Sometimes the stars and moon align for a player and it appears that Watson is THE guy at home against the Browns.
Carson Palmer: $6,100 vs. Tampa Bay (Home)
A new week and yet another Palmer recommendation from me. While Palmer didn’t have a huge day against Philadelphia he was still solid for you in DFS. The Buccaneers are on the road and still licking their wounds from a tough Thursday night loss against the Patriots where there secondary looked pretty bad. I like Palmer to keep the volume and yardage totals rolling in what could be a bit of a shootout in the desert.
Kevin Hogan: $4,600 vs. Houston (Road)
My hail mary play of the week! Hogan relieved a struggling Deshone Kizer on Sunday and flashed some nice plays albeit against a Jets defense. I really like Hogan this week because of his usage on the ground. Think of him as a poor man’s Tyrod Taylor. Houston’s pass rush took a massive hit with the loss of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus for the season so Hogan should have time to find his receivers and pull the ball down and run with it. At this price it’s worth throwing Hogan into some of your tournament lineups.
Kareem Hunt: $8,200 vs. Pittsburgh (Home)
The Steelers are one of the biggest reverse funnel defenses in the league. Currently fifth against the pass they rate as one of the bottom run defenses. Hunt is exactly what you want this week, a bell cow back seeing almost all of the backfield touches and is heavily involved in the passing game. I know Charcandrick West scored twice in week five but that shouldn’t get you too discouraged. Hunt is the dude.
Lamar Miller: $5,400 vs. Cleveland (Home)
Miller finds his way into my article yet again! My fears of a RBBC in Houston have been a bit premature. Miller saw the lions share of the touches against the Chiefs in week five and Foreman had a costly fumble. I thought Miller looked really good this week and I expect his work load to continue at home against the Browns. We should see Miller top one hundred yards from scrimmage and grab a score this week.
Jerrick Mckinnon: $4,100 vs. Green Bay (Home)
A classic example of a Monday night performer that already had his price locked in for the following week Mckinnon absolutely stole the show in prime time! He doubled Latavius Murray’s snap total and asserted himself as the all around back in Dalvin Cook’s absence. I imagine his ownership number will be pretty high based on recency bias but he is far and away the best value in this price range. I also like Elijah Mcguire in this range too if both Bilal Powell and Matt Forte miss the game against the Patriots.
Aaron Jones: $5,600 vs. Minnesota (Road)
The biggest thing to keep an eye on is the practice reports of Ty Montgomery this week. If Tymo can’t go it’s alllll the Aaron Jones this week. He looked great against the Cowboys and went over one hundred yards rushing with a score. The Vikings are a harder match up but with Jones it will be all about volume.
Antonio Brown: $9,300 vs. Kansas City (Road)
On the road with a struggling quarterback and what looks like a tough match up on paper Brown is going to eat on Sunday. I expect a bounce back performance from Big Ben and the Chiefs aren’t as difficult of a secondary to score on as people think ( see week five). His ownership may be lower than normal as he is the highest priced player on the slate this week but their is enough value elsewhere that you can build around Brown is cash and tournaments.
Davante Adams: $5,700 vs. Minnesota (Road)
Xavier Rhodes shuts down his side of the field and Jordy Nelson should draw that assignment while Adams will face off against Trae Waynes who has been one of the worst cover corners in the league. When I first saw the pricing this week this was one of the ones that really stood out to me. Take advantage of the discrepancy.
Terrelle Pryor Sr.: $5,700 vs. San Francisco (Home)
I’m going with my gut on this one. I feel that after a bye week, against a struggling secondary that just got torched by T.Y. Hilton, everything is setting up for Pryor to build upon his week four performance. The targets have been there but his efficiency has been the problem. Hopefully after that bye week he cleans it up and lives up to the hype.
John Brown: $4,500 vs. Tampa Bay (Home)
Palmer and J.Brown stacks! I can’t quit Smokey Brown. He’s healthy and that’s what matters most. He presents quite the mismatch for the Buccaneers secondary and I like Brown to exceed eighty yards and a score at home.
Austin Hooper: $3,500 vs. Miami (Home)
No Sanu and a dinged up Julio Jones should mean Hooper sees some extra usage in the passing game. I’ll be happy with a 5/55/1 stat line in a tough week at the tight end position.
George Kittle: $3,400 vs. Washington (Road)
The Redskins have given up a top eleven tight end performance in every game they have played this season. Kittle emerged as a favorite target of Brian Hoyer down the stretch against the Colts and I think he builds upon that success in a plus spot.
David Njoku: $3,000 vs. Houston (Road)
I used to fade all tight ends against the Texans in DFS but they are proving to be vulnerable in 2017. Travis Kelce was tearing up the Texans before he left the game with a concussion. Njoku is even more athletic than Kelce and should see plenty of looks in a game where the Browns might be playing from behind.
Jacksonville: $3,600 vs. Los Angeles Rams (Home)
Sacksonville. Turnoverville. Interceptionville. Love them this week.
Washington: $3,400 vs. San Francisco (Home)
The Redskins defense has been much improved and faces a FG friendly Niners offense. I know Josh Norman is out but the Niners passing game isn’t all that and a bag of chips as the kids say.
Tamp Bay: $2,600 vs. Arizona (Road)
Out of all the cheap options this week Tampa is the only defense that interests me. It could be a trap however as the the Cardinals passing at will is in the range of outcomes. Sometimes the risky plays are the ones that pay off.
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week six! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!