Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week One
The season is upon us! I’m back for my third season of giving you the best Draftkings plays of the week. This article will be live every Friday morning for your consumption. I will be covering the “Millionaire Maker” slate every week so don’t get too bent out of shape if there are players not listed as they might be playing on Thursday, Sunday or Monday night. I’m looking forward to digging deep, crunching the numbers and combing the player pool so we can win some money together in 2018!!
As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
On to this weeks picks:
Philip Rivers: $6,400 vs. Kansas City (Home)
The bolo tie is ready to get all gussied up and lay waste to a Chiefs secondary that looks like it will be one of the worst in the league in 2018. Marcus Peters is gone, Eric Berry is banged up already and Daniel Sorensen is on the I.R. This game has some shootout potential despite the Chargers defense being very good on paper. I fully expect Rivers to eclipse 300 yards and pass for three touchdowns making him a great value QB in week one.
Andy Dalton: $5,800 vs. Indianapolis (Road)
Speaking of suspect secondaries, The Colts have some opportunities needless to say. Kenny Moore and Nate Hairston are listed as starters, have you ever heard of them? Me either. The Bengals should have an easy time moving the ball in this one and I really like them to be a bounce back offense in 2018 so taking advantage of both prices and match up is a savvy play even though Dalton’s ownership may be fairly high.
Dak Prescott: $5,500 vs. Carolina (Road)
Everyone seems to be forgetting that Dak has been a fantasy QB1 two years in a row. He performs best when his backfield partner is Ezekiel Elliott and guess what? Zeke is back baby! I know the pass catchers for Dallas are a bit of a mess but I think Dak will play clean and efficiently against a Panthers team that has a stout front seven but a weak back end. His ownership should be pretty low and I love what Dak can do with his legs in the face of a good pass rush so a rushing TD and 40-50 yards on the ground are very doable.
Carlos Hyde: $4,500 vs. Pittsburgh (Home)
The preseason gave us some valuable info on Carlos Hyde. He was treated like a clear cut number one running back based on his usage and the fact he saw one series in the third game and then was put in bubble wrap for the rest of the preseason. I think Hyde gets twenty touches and has a chance to eclipse 100 yards from scrimmage and a score in a game with a fairly healthy Vegas point total of 47.5.
Royce Freeman: $4,500 vs. Seattle (Home)
Officially named the week one starter! Enjoy the discount on Freeman while it lasts. He will probably be one of the heaviest owned running backs of the week so prepare to get chalky if you put him into your lineup! There are quite a few value plays at running back this week so you can go cost heavy at WR and TE this week which is the strategy that I am executing.
Rex Burkhead: $4,200 vs. Houston (Home)
Waiting in the grass and ready to pounce, Burkhead is a “full go” for week one despite a partial tear in his knee. The Texans struggled mightily against pass catching backs last year and I expect that to carry over in 2018 as their personnel on defense hasn’t changed much. I would not be surprised to see sexy Rexy lineup in the slot or on the outside on passing downs as the Patriots currently have opportunities at wide receiver with Julian Edelman suspended for the first four games.
Jordan Wilkins: $3,700 vs. Cincinnati (Home)
Strictly a volume play with Marlon Mack being likely to miss week one. Christine Michael played in the fourth preseason game while Wilkins was put on ice which tells me Wilkins is the guy, for now. He’s probably the cheapest running back that will touch the ball fifteen times so at a near minimum price I’ll be sprinkling some Wilkins on my lineup steaks this week.
Antonio Brown: $8,600 vs. Cleveland (Road)
With the rumors swirling that Le’Veon Bell may not report before week one, Brown is a must start. If you saved money at Qb and RB this week you can surely afford to roster AB who absolutely destroys the Brown twice a year. I know the Browns defense is improved but AB is matchup proof and will receive an increased volume even if Bell eventually reports as like last year Bell received a small workload after missing the preseason. This also gives you the opportunity to roster James Conner on the cheap at $4,500, keep an eye on the situation. Slam dunk start of the week for me. Pay up!
Keenan Allen: $7,500 vs. Kansas City (Home)
I talked about the Chiefs earlier when I touted Rivers as a value play. Keenan Allen should see double-digit targets in this one and eclipse 100 yards pretty easily. Will it be a multiple touchdown performance? I think it might be! Love Allen this year and I’ve predicted he will lead the league in targets in 2018.
Emmanuel Sanders: $5,000 vs. Denver (Home)
Sanders has had a great preseason and looks like Case Keenum’s favorite target early on. The Seahawks no longer have a “Legion of Boom” as Earl Thomas is the last man standing and he JUST reported back to the team on Weds. Sanders should eat lined up in the slot at home in week one.
Danny Amendola: $4,200 vs. Tennessee (Home)
Devante Parker is going to miss week one, Jarvis Landry is gone, they have a rookie tight end and Ryan Tannehill needs a security blanket against and a good Tennessee pass rush. He’s not sexy, in fantasy anyway, but damn it I think he could catch 6-7 balls for 80 yards or so and at that low cost I’m in!
Rob Gronkowski: $6,900 vs. Houston (Home)
Gronk is gonna get fed this year. TB12 is well aware of the incentives in Rob’s contract and with all the uncertainty at the WR position Gronk is lined up to see his biggest workload in years. It starts here in week one. I have zero issue with paying up for big 87 at a NICE price of $6,900.
Jack Doyle: $3,600 vs. Cincinnati (Home)
We have yet to see Andrew Luck uncork a deep ball so I’m guessing he is going to work the shallow and medium parts of the field against a soft Cincinnati LB corps. Doyle has a proven track record with Luck so he’s a super safe play if you decide to try and hit on some big plays elsewhere in your lineup.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: $3,200 vs. New York Giants (Road)
The Giants allowed the most fantasy points to Tight Ends last year so I’m going back to the well with ASJ. He missed practice on Weds. so that is a situation to monitor until Sunday. If he is good to go, get him in your lineup and reap the rewards the Giants defense will give you!
Denver: $3,300 vs. Seattle (Home)
Seattle has issues in the backfield and their offensive line is a mess and Doug Baldwin is banged up. Look for Denver’s pass rush to steal the show at home.
Tennessee: $2,900 vs. Miami (Road)
I don’t know what to expect from Miami’s offense so I’ll gladly take a shot on the Titans D that is pretty loaded with talent.
Dallas: $2,300 vs. Carolina (Road)
My dirt cheap D of the week! Dallas is low key loaded on defense while the Panthers are much speedier than last year. Something has to give and I’m betting on the Dallas pass rush to feast on the Panthers mash unit of an offensive line.
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week one! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!