Doug’s DraftKings Player Picks Week Four
The first rule of fight club is that we dont talk about week three 2017 ever again. Not only was week three plagued by some awful sit/starts that affected my season long leagues it was also a down week in Draftkings. 2017 has been wild thus far and just when we think we know what’s going to happen the NFL says “hold my beer” and Case Keenum is a QB1 all of a sudden. Let’s strap in and get ready for the rollercoaster that will be week 4!
As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Deshone Kizer, A.J. Green, Zach Ertz,
First Downs: Le’Veon Bell, Davante Adams
Punts: Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Derrick Henry, Darren Sproles (inj.), Rashard Higgins, Austin Hooper, Zach Miller, Steelers D, Browns D, Titans D, Eagles D
On to this weeks picks:
Dak Prescott: $6,200 vs. L.A. Rams (Road)
Guess who has been a top twelve quarterback every week so far this year? The answer is Dak Prescott. A slow start on Monday night had all the Dak owners completely shook until his amazing flip into the endzone before half time. That play was the start of a great fantasy comeback for Dak and I think he posts another solid stat line against a Rams team that just gave up almost forty points to the 49ers. Solid floor with a high ceiling, a perfect play at this price.
Tyrod Taylor: $5,300 vs. Atlanta (Road)
Don’t look now but Tyrod Taylor is a fringe QB1 yet again despite a lack of play makers on Buffalo’s offense. The beautiful thing about Tyrod is how efficient he plays. He doesn’t turn the ball over and offers you a safe floor with his rushing capability. He had eight carries against Denver albeit for a paltry thirteen yards. He averages forty yards per game and i think he exceeds that total against Atlanta in what could turn into a favorable game script for Taylor if the Bills are trying to play catch up. 225 yards passing with two scores and sixty yards rushing seems about right to me in this one. Save some of that cash at QB and load up on studs!
Trevor Siemian: $5,200 vs. Oakland (Home)
Another GREAT value play this week is the former number one fantasy quarterback, Trevor Siemian! The Raiders are fresh off a total ass whooping by the Redskins and now have to travel to division rival Denver. Kirk Cousins went 25/30 for 365 yards and three touchdowns against the Raiders secondary on Sunday night. I don’t expect THAT kind of performance from the sybian but I do think he vibrates his way to a 250 yard, two score stat line with room for more. He’s my favorite value play of the week at any position.
Christian McCaffrey: $6,800 vs. New England (Road)
This is a pretty chalky pick as McCaffrey finally broke out in PPR formats with a nine catch, one hundred yard performance. I’ll mix in some CMC in my lineups for a couple of reasons; Kelvin Benjamin may miss this game and the Patriots have one of the slowest linebacking corps in the NFL and we don’t know if D’onta Hightower will be able to play either. He’s a match up nightmare for the Pats. A great cash play option with what should be a safe floor and enough of a ceiling to mix him in your tournament lineups here and there.
Dalvin Cook: $6,500 vs. Detroit (Home)
Currently second in the NFL in rushing, Cook looks to capitalize on a massive workload against a Lions team that just gave up 151 yards and 5.1 yards per carry to the Falcons. I don’t think Cook will be too heavily owned so I LOVE him in tourneys this week. Cook saw 32! touches on Sunday and 27/31 carries out of the back field. Can you say three down back? Cook is locked and loaded for me in week four. Go Noles!
Joe Mixon: $5,700 vs. Cleveland (Road)
Three running backs so far and they are all rookies! Look for most of the rookies to really shine this week as their match ups are all great. Enter Joe Mixon. A new offensive coordinator was exactly what Mixon needed. He showed flashes of talent against Green bay and led the Bengals in touches with twenty one. I think this may be the week we see a full blown Mixon break out. The Browns don’t pressure the QB nearly as much as the Packers do so that should help Mixon behind that sub par Bengals line. A recipe for success is Mixon him in more! Dad jokes folks, it’s what I do.
Duke Johnson: $4,500 vs. Cincinnati (Home)
If you have been listening to any of the content I’ve been included on this season you would know that I despise Isaiah Crowell with the fire of a thousand suns. It appears Hue Jackson has finally decided to get the ball into his best play makers hands. Johnson racked up 104 yards on eight touches with a beautiful touchdown. Look for his usage to increase against the Bengals as a satellite back plus as he cuts further into Crowell’s work load.
Odell Beckham Jr.: $8,900 vs. Tampa (Road)
Beckham finally broke out after his high ankle sprain limited him in week two. He looked 100% healthy to me while destroying the Eagles secondary and making ridiculous touchdown catches. The Tampa secondary is coming off of a miserable performance against the Vikings where they surrendered over 350 yards passing to Case Keenum. Even if they get Brent grimes back this week OBJ is my favorite high priced option to lean on in both cash and GPP lineups.
Emmanuel Sanders: $6,100 vs. Oakland (Home)
It’s time for a stack attack! Pairing Trevor Siemian with Sanders is a great way to maximize value and upside. I wouldn’t even blame you if you wanted to add Demaryius Thomas into the mix as well. I’m that sold on the Broncos passing game at home against the Raiders. Ride or die!
Stefon Diggs: $7,100 vs. Detroit (Home)
I like the Vikings to continue their offensive success against the Lions at home. Diggs is a bit chalky but he has moved himself into my “match up proof” wide receiver tier and now that he has shown he can put up monster games with Case Keenum the sky is the absolute limit.
Tyrell Williams: $4,400 vs. Philadelphia (Home)
There is going to be a Chargers receiver that pops off in this one and I’m betting it’s going to be Tyrell “the Gazelle” Williams. The Eagles secondary has been giving up an average of over 300 yards and has been susceptible to the big play. This is why I really like Williams in tournaments as he presents the most upside at receiver in this lower price bracket.
Cameron Brate: $3,800 vs. New York Giants (Home)
PPR finishes at the tight end position over the first three weeks of the season versus the Giants; 3,7,3. Start Brate and reap the rewards!
Hunter Henry: $3,500 vs. Philadelphia (Home)
Maybe it’s an every other game thing with Henry? Let’s hope so as I think he’s a great tournament play in a pass heavy game. He should also have low ownership as people have jumped off the Henry ship faster than the Titanic.
Ryan Griffin: $3,500 vs. Tennessee (Home)
Haven’t I seen this guy on Family Guy before? Griffin is no laughing matter as he had the second most catches for the Texans and added a score in week three. The Titans just gave up seven catches to Jimmy Graham this past week so I’m liking Griffin in an offense that needs pass catchers to step up. Look for Griffin to snag at least five catches and a score this week making him a great value play.
Jacksonville Jaguars: $3,600 vs. New York Jets (Road)
The Jets actually won last week. That was nice while it lasted…..
Philadelphia Eagles: $3,300 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Road)
Turnover prone Philip Rivers versus a good front seven makes for turnovers for dessert on Sunday.
Atlanta Falcons: $3,200 vs. Buffalo (Home)
Just a hunch the Falcons score either a special teams or defensive touchdown in this one. As much as I like Tyrod Taylor this week the Bills could struggle.
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week four! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!