Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week Five
Welcome to week five everybody! We have got some major fantasy players on bye for the first time this season so there will be no Falcons, Redskins, Saints or Broncos so it is a bit of a challenge this week to find some of those diamonds in the rough. I am here to guide you through the match ups and give you my best plays of the week! Last week was a success and a nice bounce back from an opportunistic week three. I needed that!
As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Dak Prescott, Tyrod Taylor, Duke Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr., Tyrell Williams, Cameron Brate, Hunter Henry, Jacksonville D
First Downs: Trevor Siemian, Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, Philadelphia D
Punts: Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Emmanuel Sanders, Ryan Griffin, Atlanta D
On to this weeks picks:
Carson Palmer: $5,900 vs. Philadelphia (Road)
I think I could put Palmer in this article every week. He’s leading the league in pass attempts and only behind Tom Brady in yardage. The Eagles pass defense has given up the second most passing yards this season. I know there is some concern about Palmer on the road and playing at one o’clock but I think the volume carries him this week and he has a solid enough floor to start in cash games and a high enough ceiling for tournaments.
Jay Cutler: $5,200 vs. Tennessee (Home)
Oh man it’s smoking Jay Cutler week! How on earth can I recommend him after that awful performance against the Saints in London? Well that’s easy my friends, he’s finally playing a home game and the Titans are the second worst secondary in the league after the Patriots! I like Cutler to bounce back with a 250 yard performance and a couple of touchdowns.
Joe Flacco: $4,700 vs. Oakland (Home)
It’s old, washed up QB week folks. There aren’t a ton of other great options in week five so here we are. The Raiders defense has had it’s fair share of issues and now the offense is led by E.J. Manuel with Derek Carr missing the next two to six weeks. This should mean the Baltimore offense should see plenty of opportunities to finally get right albeit on the road.
Le’Veon Bell: $9,500 vs. Jacksonville (Home)
Bell is the chalk play of the week. The Jaguars are a classic “reverse funnel” where they lock down the passing game but give up a ton of rushing yards. Bilal Powell and Elijah Mcguire both had long runs against the Jags last week and yes I know Powells was a bit fluky but it still happened! Bell saw over thirty touches last week and should see a monster work load once again. Safe as safe can be this week!
Duke Johnson Jr.: $4,900 vs. New York Jets (Home)
One thing to me is clear. It’s Duke Johnson’s backfield now. Johnson was on this list last week and finished as a top ten running back. In a full point PPR format players like Johnson are exactly what you want. A safe reception floor with multiple touch upside. The Browns are finally realizing that Johnson is a weapon they need to take advantage of and you need to do the same.
Andre Ellington: $4,600 vs. Philadelphia (Road)
Is it 2015? I’m recommending Andre Ellington! A pure volume play, Ellington has run the second most routes at the running back position in the last two weeks and produced a team high 14! targets in week four. I love a cheap Palmer, Ellington and John Brown stack if you have the intestinal fortitude to pull that off in a lineup or two. That can afford you to play studs like Bell this week relatively easily.
Buck Allen: $4,500 vs. Oakland (Road)
Allen is still active enough in the passing game to make him playable week to week. Alex Collins and Terrance West don’t exactly have the same skill set that Allen does. He is definitely a riskier play this week but I like his ceiling in this particular price range.
Jordy Nelson: $8,100 vs. Dallas (Road)
News flash! The Cowboys defense isn’t very good. The Packers backfield is a bit of a mess until we know more about the Ty Montgomery injury and Davante Adams is rumored to play this week despite that grotesque hit on Monday night. I think Rodgers will rely on Nelson heavily in a plus match up that should produce quite a few points.
Devante Parker: $6,600 vs. Tennessee (Home)
The lone bright spot yet again for the Dolphins was the play of Parker. The big game is coming folks and could very well be this week, The Titans have given up a WR1 performance EVERY week this season. That’s crazy consistent and offers the safe floor, high ceiling type of player you want to target. Love Parker this week. Put him in coach!
T.Y. Hilton: $6,000 vs. San Francisco (Home)
The Niners are apt to give up the big play and there are very few players in the league better at the big play than Hilton. The Niners lock up the tight end position so Jacoby Brissett should be targeting Hilton early and often on the turf in Indy. Crazy low price for a player with his upside.
Tyler Lockett: $4,500 vs. Los Angeles Rams (Road)
Snap shares and targets keep rising for Lockett and that “boom” game is coming. I was spot on with my Tyrell Williams call last week and I think I’ll strike gold again here with Lockett. All the signs are pointing in the right direction.
Hunter Henry: $3,800 vs. New York Giants (Road)
Start your tight ends against the Giants. It could be a Gates game as he is out snapping Henry but Henry is the far superior pass game weapon so I’ll roll with Hunter this week.
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins: $3,500 vs. Cleveland (Road)
The Browns are getting absolutely gashed by opposing tight ends and ASJ is seeing a healthy target percentage the last two weeks so that makes him a great value play.
Jesse James: $3,000 vs. Jacksonville (Home)
Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are locking down the outside receivers for the Jaguars so look for James to see an uptick in targets and put up a score here. If you’ve made it this far and are still reading, I also like JuJu Smith-Schuster this week at WR for many of the same reasons.
Baltimore: $2,900 vs. Oakland (Road)
E.J. Manuel and a struggling offense should be a nice remedy for the ravens defense.
Miami: $2,700 vs. Tennessee(Home)
If Matt Cassel is the starting quarterback it’s wheels up for the Dolphins defense.
San Francisco: $2,600 vs. Indianapolis (Road)
The Niners defense isn’t as horrible as we thought and the Colts are prone to turning the ball over. You could do worse at this bottom basement price point.
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week five! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!