Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week Five
We are a quarter of the way through the NFL season and we are finally seeing some great data points that allow us to maximize our DFS lineups every week. The disadvantage of that is that everyone else has them too so part of how I approach this article every week is to use the data and also use my gut feeling on players and match ups. I’ll be on vacation in Las Vegas next week so I have no idea who’s stepping up and filling my shoes while I’m gone so stay tuned and best of luck in week five! Viva Las Vegas!
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, pod casters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Andy Dalton, Zeke Elliott, James White, Aaron Jones, Tyler Boyd, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton
First Downs: Eli Manning, Matt Breida, Seattle D, Buffalo D
Punts: Josh Allen, Kenny Stills, OBJ, Tyler Eifert (injured), Austin Hooper, Philly D
Matt Ryan: $6,600 vs. Pittsburgh (Road)
We’ve come quite aways since Ryan’s miserable season debut in Philadelphia haven’t we? He’s been on absolute fire over his last three games and now faces a Pittsburgh secondary that blinks and gives up three hundred yards passing. I expect Ryan to ball out once again and eclipse three hundred and fifty yards passing and three scores. Matty Ice is en fuego!
Derek Carr: $5,200 vs. L.A. Chargers (Road)
At the beginning of the season this looked like a minus match up for Derek Carr but it turns out the Chargers secondary has been really disappointing with the exception of Derwin James. Carr is averaging only six yards per target which is one of the worst in the league but I think he will build on the momentum of his four hundred yard day against Cleveland and be a solid GPP play with low ownership.
Josh Rosen: $4,700 vs. San Francisco (Road)
Rosen only passed for 58 yards in the first half of his game last week but then really started to settle in and look like the promising QB we all think he is. He passed for one hundred and fifty yards and a score in the second half and would have had more if not for some egregious drops by his receivers. I love this play in GPP’s this week as I think he will barely be owned at all. He’s got upside so I’ll sprinkle him into a few of my lineups.
Christian McCaffrey: $8,000 vs. New York Giants (Home)
Dairy Sanders is back from bye! Fresh legs after a 28 carry performance in week three, McCaffrey is locked in as the bell cow, do it all running back for the Panthers. His floor is safer than the freaking pentagon. Lock him in.
T.J. Yeldon: $5,600 vs. Kansas City (Road)
No Leonard Fournette? No problem! Exactly one hundred yards from scrimmage and two spikes last week and now Yeldon faces a porous defense that just got gashed by Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. He gets a ton of usage in the passing game too so I love Yeldon for cash lineups where you need a safe floor and a chance at a high ceiling. Yeldon is that guy this week especially in this price range.
Aaron Jones: $4,300 vs. Detroit (Road)
Making his second straight appearance in this article because dang it, he’s good! A nice and tidy 11/65/1 with a seventeen yard reception made him a great play last week and now he gets the Lions who have struggled against the run. Adams, Cobb and Allison are all not currently practicing so I’d look for Jones to get more work in the passing game too. Ty Montgomery might be a sneaky GPP play this week as well, just a heads up.
Chris Carson: $4,100 vs. L.A. Rams (Home)
Seattle has shown over the last two games they REALLY want to run the ball. Carson looks like he will suit up this week and should lead the way in carries. The only thing you want to be cautious of is the potential for him to get game scripted out if the Rams go up big. Carson can do some damage in the passing game and he’s the clear favorite for goal line work.
Stefon Diggs: $7,000 vs. Philadelphia (Road)
Diggs has seen double digit targets the last three weeks and now draws Jalen Mills in coverage. This is a JUICY match up for Stefon and I keep finding myself putting him into most of my lineups. Mills is currently ranked as the #102 CB in the league by Pro Football Focus. Giddy up!
Golden Tate: $6,700 vs. Green Bay (Home)
Six or more receptions in every game this season has provided Tate with a solid floor for cash game lineups. I’m not expecting him to score twice like he did last week but he should be able to grab seven to eight passes and get close to the century mark in yardage. A TD will just be icing on the proverbial cake.
Dede Westbrook: $4,700 vs. Kansas City (Road)
This game has potential shoot out written all over it so I’m all about exposing myself to affordable pieces of it. A Bortles, Yeldon, Westbrook, Sefarian-Jenkins stack has super sneaky GPP potential. It would also allow you to pay up for the Julio Jones and Alvin Kamara’s of the world too.
Taywan Taylor: $4,000 vs. Buffalo (Road)
Corey Davis is going to find himself blanketed by Tre’davious White in this one so Taylor should see his fair share of targets against the Bills. Last week was just the start of his coming out party where he saw nine targets and grabbed seven passes for seventy seven yards. Love Taylor this week as a cheap cash game play.
Vance Mcdonald: $3,700 vs. Atlanta (Home)
Vance to make you dance! Tight end is beyond ugly right now so I like Vance this week in a game that has a high over/under point total. Give me the potential for a score, that’s all I’m looking for.
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins: $2,900 vs. Kansas City (Road)
Match up is there. Points should be scored. Can ASJ capitalize? I’m willing to find out for $2,900.
Hayden Hurst: $2,800 vs. Cleveland (Road)
It appears that Hurst is set to make his season debut and Joe Flacco is targeting his tight ends twenty percent of the time. I think Hurst steps right in and makes an impact right away. GPP play of the week!
Denver: $3,000 vs. N.Y. Jets (Road)
The Broncos made Patrick Mahomes almost look human so I like their chances against a struggling Jets offense, even on the road on a short week.
Arizona: $2,900 vs. San Francisco (Road)
The Cardinals defense held Russell Wilson in check and even though C.J. Beathard played ok last week I’m not a huge fan on the Niners offense as a whole. Start the Cards with confidence.
Buffalo: $2,300 vs. Tennessee (Home)
They played fairly well against the Packers on the cheap last week and this is setting up as a “trap” game for the Titans coming off of a big OT win against the Super Bowl champs.
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week five! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!