Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week 13
Who needs the playoffs when you have DFS! If you are out of contention in your season long leagues I highly recommend giving Draftkings a try. No draft or injuries to worry about and you can pick whoever you want as long as you stay with the salary cap. The best part is being able to win money! I’ve done pretty well this season and I only play for small amounts on a week to week basis. If you are new to Draftkings they actually have beginner tournaments for players that don’t have a ton of experience based on their profile and history. These matchups are a great way to get introduced to the game. Read this article, go to www.draftkings.com or download the app and go make yourself some extra Christmas cash!
Now as important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 5X their value, which I discussed in the week one article. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it! With that said here are the results from week eight:
Touchdowns: Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Marshall, Giants D
First Downs: Carson Palmer, Doug Martin, Jeremy Hill, Devante Parker, Miami and Tenn. D
Punts: Russell Wilson, Jay Ajayi, Thomas Rawls, Larry Fitzgerald, Tyler Lockett, Every TE
Aaron Rodgers: $6,700 vs. Houston (Home)
Nobody has scored more fantasy points in the last month than Rodgers. He is priced as the QB six in week thirteen. Houston does have one of the best secondaries in the league but Rodgers is nails at home and the Packers just can’t run the ball effectively. Rodgers throw it over forty times and nets 300 yards and three touchdowns.
Colin Kaepernick: $6,100 vs. Chicago (Road)
Do you know who has scored the second most fantasy points over the last month? It’s Kaepernick! He’s averaged twenty-five points per game and is currently priced as the QB 13! Chicago’s defense has played better than the stats let on but they just lost another starting linebacker for the season so Kap runs wild in this one. Mix in 250 yards and a couple of passing TD’s and I’ll own Kap everywhere this week.
Jared Goff: $5,000 vs. New England (Road)
I almost put Matt Barkley in this spot and I do like him this week but I don’t think anybody will be on Goff which makes him an interesting tournament play. The Patriots are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing QB’s this season and are fresh off making Ryan Fitzpatrick look like it’s 2015 again. They should be down in this game and I think Goff can go over 300 yards and maybe, just maybe, two scores. If he does that he’s a huuuuge tournament play.
David Johnson: $9,500 vs. Washington (Home)
Johnson is the chalk this week and I’ll have him in every cash and tournament lineup. The safest floor and has the highest ceiling every week. BEAST!
Theo Riddick: $5,800 vs. New Orleans (Road)
The Lions can’t run the ball at all and when they do it’s Riddick who will get the most work. I don’t roster him for his rushing ability, however. Riddick should catch 7-8 balls in this game as I expect the Lions to be playing from behind. One point per reception, plus good yardage and I think Riddick can settle in between 15-20 points.
Dion Lewis: $3,800 vs. Los Angeles (Home)
If you are looking to start both David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell this week in the same lineup you will need some good value plays. Much like Riddick, Lewis’s value comes through the passing game and at $3,800 I’m willing to take a chance on Dion this week as he is touching the ball on a high percentage of his snaps. This should only increase as he gets healthier and the Patriots get him more involved.
Brandin Cooks: $6,400 vs. Detroit (Home)
Zero targets, zero catches, zero points last week. I didn’t see that coming! This is a great case of the squeaky wheel gets the grease this week as Cooks has already chirped about his role in the offense. I expect him to be heavily targeted and rebound in a big way against a Lions defense that is overrated against the pass. 100 yards and a score at least in this one. Book it.
Tyreek Hill: $4,600 vs. Atlanta (Road)
I had Tyreek in this article two weeks ago and he let me down. I guess I was just a week too early. Hill balled out against the best passing defense in the league last week and now gets one of the worst pass defenses in Atlanta. I expect the ball to be put in his hands on 25% of the Chiefs plays as he is by far their best playmaker right now. It’s a winning formula so keep doing it! 10 targets, 7 catches for 90 yards and a score this week is my projection.
Marquess Wilson: $4,000 vs. San Francisco (Home)
Another great value play, Wilson popped off for 8 catches, 125 yards, and a score last week and looked like the clear WR1 for Matt Barkley. The Niners defense is the path of least resistance and I like Wilson to match the numbers from week 12. I will own him all over the place this week.
Jimmy Graham: $5,500 vs. Carolina (Home)
Graham is coming off a disappointing game against the Bucs where he had a back breaking fumble late in the fourth quarter. The good news is Jimmy is flying back to Seattle where he has enjoyed most of his success in 2016. Graham is averaging 80 yards receiving and almost a touchdown a game at home this year. The Panthers are one of the league’s worst in covering the TE and it looks like Luke Kuechly will miss this game. Graham is locked in as a TE1 this week.
Travis Kelce: $4,700 vs. Atlanta (Road)
Coming off back to back 100-yard games, Kelce now faces an Atlanta team that is ranked 27th against the tight end. I’m done trying to find value at TE this year and I’m just going to play studs and look elsewhere to save money!
Coby Fleener: $3,500 vs. Detroit (Home)
I know, I know, what about Josh Hill!? Look, Hill had one good week and Fleener still had 49 yards receiving despite not playing as many snaps. The Lions suck against the tight end. It’s a joke within the industry at this point. I like Fleener to go for 65 yards and a score this week.
Philadelphia: $3,100 vs. Cincinnati (Road)
No A.J., No Gio, and Dalton has been horrible. Eagles in a nice bounce back spot on the road.
Green Bay: $2,900 vs. Houston (Home)
Two words: Brock Osweiler
Miami: $2,600 vs. Baltimore (Road)
Baltimore has struggled on offense for most of the season and Miami is cranking up the pressure on opposing Qb’s. Flacco turns it over twice and the Ravens only score ten points this week.
That wraps up week thirteen! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!