Doug’s Draftkings player picks week 11
Wow, last week was a brutal one. My apologies for that. Win some, lose some I suppose. One thing I did learn from last week by looking at some of my lineups and seeing the winner of the millionaire makers squad was that if you can put together a lineup with a safe receptions floor that you can be successful without having to totally rely on touchdown production. Players like Antonio Brown, Le’veon Bell and Julio Jones are guys you should be building your lineups around every week because they are the safest bets for catches in the NFL. I’ve been doing DFS for just over a year now and I’m learning new strategies all the time in order to make myself a better player. I hope I can help you get better too!
Now as important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 5X their value, which I discussed in the week one article. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it! With that said here are the results from week eight:
Touchdowns: Marcus Mariota, Tyrell Williams, Tyreek Hill, Martellus Bennett
First Downs: David Johnson, all defenses
Punts: Tom Brady, Jay Cutler, Todd Gurley, Chris Ivory, Mark Ingram, Alshon Jeffrey, J.J. Nelson, Travis Kelce, Zach Miller
Andrew Luck: $7,200 vs. Tennessee (Home)
The last time Luck faced the Titans he went off for 353/3 and that was on the road. Fresh of a bye and with some home cooking I expect Luck to have the safest floor among quarterbacks in week 11.
Marcus Mariota: $6,700 vs. Indianapolis (Road)
I think I’ve had Mariota in this article for four weeks straight and I’m hitching my wagon to him once again! Mariota had a decent day the first time around on the Colts with a 232/2 line in week 7. I think the Titans offense as a whole has improved since then, especially in the passing game with the emergence of Rishard Matthews and Kendall Wright. I like a Mariota, Murray and Walker stack this week if you prefer to build your lineups with that strategy.
Kirk Cousins: $5,800 vs. Green Bay (Home)
Captain Kirk is averaging 25 fantasy points over his last three games and performed well against a good Vikings defense last week. He know gets to face the Packers defense which has been ripped to shreds the last three weeks by giving up almost 40! points per game. I love the Redskins passing attack this week and think Cousins is severely under priced especially at home, where he really excels.
Le’veon Bell: $8,800 vs. Cleveland (Road)
I talked about building blocks in the first paragraph and mentioned Bell as one of those key players. The reason you want Bell this week and every week is his touch volume. You know he will touch the ball at least 25 times and he was the only Steelers RB to take snaps last week. He is an animal! On top of all of that goodness he is running a ton of routes which opens up more chances for receptions. It was great to see him pop his touchdown cherry this past week and I expect more fantasy goodness in Cleveland on Sunday.
Spencer Ware: $6,000 vs. Tampa Bay (Home)
Ware has been off of the fantasy radar for a couple of weeks now after suffering a concussion and then having a tough road match up with Carolina. Tamp Bay gives up the 7th most fantasy points to running backs and Ware is the bell cow that should get 20 touches this week. I forecast 125 yards from scrimmage and two TD’s for Ware this week with a few receptions sprinkled in.
Theo Riddick: $5,100 vs. Jacksonville (Home)
Receptions, receptions, receptions. That is the name of Theo Riddicks game! Jacksonville ranks in the middle of the league in run defense but they do have a tendency to give up a lot of receptions to running backs. Enter Theo as a great value play this week at only $5,100. 100 total yards and 6-7 catches would be sweet and Riddick has had a nose for the end zone this year soooooo…..
Bonus: Dion Lewis $3,300 vs. San Francisco (Road)
After being a surprise inactive last week against Seattle, I think Lewis will be good to go in a plus match up in San Fran. Obviously keep an eye on the inactives about 90 minutes before kick off just to make sure he’s good to go. The reception upside at this floor pricing makes Lewis very intriguing to me in a game that could have a lot of garbage time snaps for the Pats (unless the D that played against Seattle last week returns). If active, I’m taking a shot in some GPP’s.
Mike Evans: $8,100 vs. Kansas City (Road)
Evans only saw five targets last week which was a season low. He did have four catches and 66 yards receiving but that was a disappointing stat line in what was perceived to be a plus match up. I think Evans is a great bounce back candidate against a KC D that gives up the 9th most fantasy points to Wr’s. Marcus Peters is a play maker but he can be exposed by players like Evans in coverage. I expect him to get back to double digit targets and crack 100 yards and a score pretty easily.
Stefon Diggs: $7,000 vs. Arizona (Home)
.42 targets and 34 catches over the last three weeks for Diggs. Even if he is shadowed by Patrick Peterson, Digg’s volume alone puts him in play this week. He really is the only guy in town for the Vikings passing offense. Kyle Rudolph be damned.
Doug Baldwin: $5,700 vs. Philadelphia (Home)
Baldwin popped off for three scores in New England this week as the Seahawks offense has been humming right along. This is a bit of a point chase but at this price, at home, against the Eagles. I think Baldwin is a safe play this week regardless as Russell Wilson’s favorite target.
Bonus: Tyreek Hill: $4,500 vs. Tampa Bay (Home)
Tyreek the freak is back in this article! A 10 catch day will do that to you I guess. Hill played as many snaps as he did the week prior so if maclin comes back this week I don’t think it eats too far into Hill’s workload. They love this kid and want to get the ball in his hands. He’s a play maker who can take it to the house anywhere on the field. Love his ceiling potential this week versus the Bucs.
Jordan Reed: $5,900 vs. Green Bay (Home)
See Cousins, Kirk.
Zach Miller: $3,800 vs. New York Giants (Road)
The loss of Alshon for four games benefits Miller the most as smoking Jay loves to throw to the players he trusts the most (sorry Cameron Meredith). The Giants stink at covering the TE and I see Miller getting peppered with looks at Met Life stadium.
Martellus Bennett: $3,700 vs. San Francisco (Road)
The black unicorn is probably the chalkiest play at TE this week and for good reason. Gronk may miss this game and that obviously opens up volume for Martysaurus Rex. I had him in this space last week despite the rest of the industry calling to bench him. He went for 7/102 against Seattle. Go me! Self high five!
Los Angeles: $3,100 vs. Miami (Home)
The Rams have given up a total of 30 points over their last three games and now faces a Miami squad that, while improved, doesn’t strike fear into your heart. The lack of turnovers by the Rams is concerning but I’d still give them a go.
Miami: $2,900 vs. Los Angeles (Road)
On the flip side the Rams are starting a rookie quarterback so that alone makes them start worthy. Ownership of them will be high.
Philadelphia: $2,500 vs. Seattle (Road)
The Eagles defense just did a great job against the Falcons in week 10. I think Seattle will be a challenge in the points allowed department but the ability for the Eagles to force turnovers and sack the quarterback make them playable for me at a rock bottom discount.
That wraps up week eleven! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!