Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week 16

Wow, what an absolutely smoking week for this here article! We enjoyed our highest hit rate percentage of the season and brought you the top QB and RB last week and only had four “punt” plays. That makes me feel pretty awesome, I have to say. It’s a new week and while I’m focused on two of my championship games, I’m also very excited for this weeks millionaire maker slate and finding the value plays! Let’s get to it!

As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.

As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!

Touchdowns: Cam Newton, Blake Bortles, Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, Marquise Goodwin, Zach Ertz, Kyle Rudolph

First Downs: Alshon Jeffrey, Charles Clay, Arizona D, Panthers D

Punts: Blaine Gabbert, Alex Collins, Corey Coleman, New Orleans D

 

On to this weeks picks:

Quarterback:

Cam Newton: $6,800 vs. Tampa (Home)

Hello? Is it me your’e looking for? Why yes Cam, it is! The Qb1 from a week ago finds himself back in the same article this week. Tampa hasn’t really changed much in the last few weeks although they didn’t surrender a monster day to the Falcons passing game on Monday night, this unit still stinks and gets more and more injured every week. Carolina is in a must win game, at home which leads me to believe that Cam is going to pop off again this week.

Jameis Winston: $5,700 vs. Carolina (Road)

Sticking with the same game here but I really liked what I saw from Jameis against the Falcons. He played mistake free football, looked confident and put up a very nice stat line against a good Falcons defense. The game script for this one could mean that Winston drops back forty plus times against a secondary that has struggled as of late. I know they picked off Aaron Rodgers three times last week but they also gave up almost 300 yards passing and three scores. I attribute some of those picks to Rodgers being rusty if anything. While I don’t think the Bucs “Eat a “W”‘ I think Jameis throws for 300 yards and two scores.

Tyrod Taylor: $5,500 vs. New England (Road)

Tygod, my second favorite player to write up this year after Carson Palmer (R.I.P.) sees himself in a very favorable match up against the Patriots on the road. Tyrod always gives the Patriots problems as they struggle against Qb’s who can and will tuck and run with the football. His lack of weapons outside of Lesean McCoy has been laughable but yet Tyrod Taylor still puts up back end QB1 numbers on a consistent basis. I expect a 250 yard, two score game with another 50 yards rushing in a game where Buffalo has a little bit of extra motivation and a playoff birth on the line.

 

Running Back:

Ezekiel Elliott: $8,000 vs. Seattle (Home)

The Ewok returns to Endor!! Zeke is my play of the week. Six weeks have gone by and Zeke trained his ass off in Mexico, did you see those pics? He is ready to rock against a Seattle D that just got eviscerated by Todd Gurley. There will be no “easing” in for Zeke and he will see his typical 25 touch workload and rush for over 100 yards and two scores.

Dion Lewis: $6,000 vs. Buffalo (Home)

The injury to Rex Burkhead should mean even more touches for Dion. This also happens to be a great spot for him as Buffalo has struggled against the run over the last four weeks. If he gets a bump in passing game usage too then oh man. oh man, sky’s the limit!

Gio Bernard/Joe Mixon: $5,000/$5,100 vs. Detroit (Home)

I know the Bengals stink and look like a team that just wants the season to end. Whoever is the starting RB for the Bengals this week I want some exposure to. The Lions are a favorable match up and for some reason I think this game is going to be closer than most think. The Lions are atrocious on the road in 2017. Tournament plays only.

Bonus:

Mike Gillislee: $3,900 vs. Buffalo (Home)

Goal. Line. Carries. A great tournament play this week with Burkhead out.

 

Wide Receiver:

Keenan Allen: $7,700 vs. N.Y. Jets (Road)

The Jets gave up another monster game to a WR1 last week and I believe that trend continues in week 16. Allen was carted off with a back injury in Kansas City last week but early reports indicate he is “fine”. A must win game for the Chargers so I’m putting my money on their best offensive weapon. Take that Melvin Gordon! Don’t @ me.

Mike Evans: $6,400 vs. Carolina (Road)

A great stack play with Jameis this week, Evans look to build upon his 8 target, 5 reception, 79 yards and a score performance on Monday night. I love Evans at this price and it really looked like the Bucs focused on getting Evans the ball which is what they should have been doing all season……

Cooper Kupp: $5,300 vs. Tennessee (Road)

Tennessee hasn’t been giving up big plays in the passing game as of late but they are very exploitable over the middle of the field where Mr. Kupp does his best work. This also means Bob Woods is a good play as well but I’ll take the $1,100 cheaper player in Kupp.

Bonus:

Devante Parker: $4,200 vs. Kansas City (Road)

I’m being drawn back in to Parker. God dammit. He had a nice game with 11 targets and 89 yards last week but still hasn’t scored since week 3. The Chiefs secondary has been playing better over the last few weeks but I still think Parker has some upside at this price in tournaments.

 

Tight End:

Travis Kelce: $6,900 vs. Miami (Home)

My TE1 this week. He’s at home against a Miami defense that ranks 29th in the league against the TE and that’s including a game the Patriots didn’t have Gronk in. Catch some Kelce this week!

Eric Ebron: $3,700 vs. Cincinnati (Road)

A formerly gross option, Ebron is having quite the late season resurgence. The Bengals are extremely banged up and Tight Ends have been taking advantage, you should too.

Adam Shaheen: $3,600 vs. Cleveland (Home)

Keep an eye on his health this week but if Shaheen plays he is a great tournament option. The Browns yielded yet another TE touchdown last week. That trend should continue as the Bears passing attack is putting up yardage over the last three weeks.

 

Defense:

Kansas City: $3,300 vs. Miami (Home)

Miami has a tendency to implode here and there and this seems like a spot where it could happen.

Denver: $3,200 vs. Washington (Road)

The Redskins continue to struggle on offense and Denver seems to have righted the ship on defense so advantage, Denver.

Detroit: $2,900 vs. Cincinnati (Road)

Another Bengals collapse could very well happen this week and for this price I’m willing to sprinkle them in here and there to find out.

That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week sixteen! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at insider@tffgurus.com or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!

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Find me on Twitter @DaFantasyFather

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