Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week 13
Over the Thanksgiving holiday I realized a few things. One, falling down the stairs is never a good idea and playing flag football two days afterwards was probably not a good idea either. It was a sore weekend for yours truly. I tried to make myself feel better with my Draftkings lineups but alas, they didn’t do very well. It was a weekend full of pain and disappointment but the good news is a new week is upon us and we can prepare for a nice rebound here in week thirteen!
As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Dion Lewis, Juliooooo Jones, Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Kroft, Carolina D
First Downs: Matt Ryan, Tyrod Taylor, Jacksonville D
Punts: Jacoby Brissett, Mark Ingram, Devontae Booker, T.Y. Hilton, Corey Davis, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Saints D
On to this weeks picks:
Philip Rivers: $7,000 vs. Cleveland (Home)
Captain bolo tie is coming off of his best game of the season in which he passed for over 400 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving day. His price definitely reflects his latest performance and the fact he is taking on the Browns this week. I still have a feeling he will be relatively low owned because of the value at the QB position this week so I’m firing up Phil and all of his kids!
Blake Bortles: $5,400 vs. Indianapolis (Home)
Coming off of a 19/33 for 160 yards and an interception game, Bortles had zero value through the air BUT he added six carries for 62 yards and TWO touchdowns! The last time Bortles faced Indy he passed for over 300 yards and a score and proved himself usable in tournaments. The Colts are down their top two cornerbacks and Bortles is about to feast on some equine on Sunday. Look for 250 yards passing with two touchdowns and an extra score on the ground for good measure!
Brett Hundley: $5,100 vs. Tampa Bay (Home)
I really liked what I saw from Hundley on Sunday night against the Steelers and now he faces a Tampa Bay secondary that bleeds points and just got destroyed by Matt Ryan, Mohammed Sanu (throwing) and Julio Jones. I like an affordable stack of Hundley, Adams, Jamaal Williams this week at home. I kind of even like Jordy Nelson this week too. All the Packers!
Jordan Howard: $6,500 vs. San Francisco (Home)
I know it might be hard to trust a player that just posted a nine touch, nineteen total yard performance last week but hear me out. This is a game that should be competitive from start to finish and I would not be surprised to see Howard touch the ball over twenty times and be the hammer that controls the game. One hundred yards and a score seem imminent.
Dion Lewis: $5,500 vs. Buffalo (Road)
I’m going back to the well with Lewis this week. I know he only caught one pass last week but he rushed fifteen times for 112 yards against Miami. I look for him to repeat that performance in Buffalo and for good measure, he adds a rushing touchdown. Boom!
Alex Collins: $4,500 vs. Detroit (Home)
So apparently I like running backs that don’t tend to catch the ball out of their backfields this week. I know, I know it’s a PPR format. He led the Ravens backfield with sixteen carries and while the yardage wasn’t great he did rush for a touchdown. The Lions have struggled mightily against the run for over a month now and Collins, much like Howard, can be the ball control back in a great match up that pays DFS dividends.
Deandre Hopkins: $7,300 vs. Tennessee (Road)
Nuk OWNS the Titans in his career. He posted a ten catch, 100 yard and a score performance back in week four and has excelled despite seeing Patrick Peterson and Jimmy Smith in coverage the last two weeks. Rostering Hopkins at this price is the no brainer move of the week!
Davante Adams: $6,500 vs. Tampa Bay (Home)
Mr. Adams is clearly the apple of Brett Hundley’s eye as he once again led the team in targets, yards and touchdowns. Adams is averaging nine targets, over 100 yards and .66 scores over the last three weeks and still seems very under priced on Draftkings. He has potential to have a monster game at home against those skally wag Buccaneers.
Cooper Kupp: $6,400 vs. Arizona (Road)
Not only does Kupp look like a villain from a Die Hard movie but he also enjoyed a breakout performance against the Saints in week twelve. I think he keeps the momentum going against the Cardinals in a game that he should see sub par coverage out of the slot. Is he pricey this week? Yes, he is but I’m filling my lineups with Kupp.
Dede Westbrook: $4,100 vs. Indianapolis (Home)
Here is my tournament play of the week! Ten targets, six catches but only 41 yards last week but now he faces the Colts secondary I talked about earlier. I like Marqise Lee this week as well and wouldn’t blame you if you contructed a Bortles, Westbrook, Lee, Jags D stack. Sneaky with a ton of upside,exactly what I like to sprinkle into my tournament lineups!
Jared Cook: $5,400 vs. New York Giants (Home)
Crabtree suspended, Cooper concussed and hurt and they play against the Giants this week. An absolute smash spot. Chalk city so don’t get too many Cooks in your lineup kitchen.
Hunter Henry: $4,700 vs. Cleveland (Home)
Which Hunter Henry are we going to get this week, the two catch twenty yards Henry or the seven catch, eighty yard Henry? I think we get the latter as Cleveland just so happens to be awful against the tight end position.
Kyle Rudolph: $4,500 vs. Atlanta (Road)
Don’t look now but Rudolph has had 32 targets over his last five games with 25 receptions and three touchdowns. He is definitely back on the TE1 map and has earned enough trust to put into your cash and tournament lineups.
Jacksonville: $4,500 vs. Indianapolis (Home)
Sacksonville is gonna feast on the Colts. It’s going to be awesome.
Detroit: $3,000 vs. Baltimore (Road)
I think this will be a low scoring affair and the Ravens still start Joe Flacco.
Miami: $2,500 vs. Broncos (Home)
The Dolphins seem to play better at home and the Broncos and their QB carousel has struggled to score points. If you want to play a cheap defense I like both the Dolphins and the Broncos this week.
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week thirteen! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!