Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! While you won’t find any turkey day game player picks, you will find my favorite plays for the millionaire maker! The fall is in full swing and I’m ready to sit down with family and have some great food, watch some football and just enjoy the day. I used to work as a retail manager so needless to say Thanksgiving is  a day I can finally enjoy to the fullest. No more early openings, long hours, traffic or stores packed with customers all day while the rest of my family does all the cool stuff. I’m thankful that I have the opportunity to be a stay at home dad and fantasy analyst. Life is good!

As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.

As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!

Touchdowns: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Deandre Hopkins, Jamison Crowder, Travis Kelce, Vernon Davis, Baltimore D

First Downs: Blake Bortles,Kareem Hunt, Jerrick Mckinnon, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Tyler Kroft

Punts: Alex Smith, Doug Martin, Rex Burkhead, Arizona D, Chicago D

 

On to this weeks picks:

Quarterback:

Matt Ryan: $6,400 vs. Tampa Bay (Home)

Good ole Matty Ice coming off a two touchdown performance against the Seahawks now gets to face one of the leagues worst secondaries at home. I know this year has been frustrating for Ryan owners in season long leagues but the beauty of DFS is that you can just use the under performing players when they have great match ups! I like Ryan to eclipse 250 yards and to throw for three scores as the Falcons should be able to move the ball at will this week against the Bucs.

Tyrod Taylor: $5,800 vs. Kansas City (Road)

Nobody circle jerks the wagons like the Buffalo Bills! I have a great idea, let’s bench our starting quarterback for a fifth round rookie while we are still contending for a playoff spot. Sounds completely logical right? We all witnessed the implosion that Nathan Peterman had against the Chargers in week 11 and I can’t imagine they roll him out there on the road in Kansas City. Tyrod took over at the half and proceeded to throw for 158 yards and a touchdown and he added 38 yards rushing to boot. Great spot for TyGod this week against a struggling Chiefs team.

Jacoby Brissett: $5,400 vs. Tennessee (Home)

The one thing you want to monitor in this situation is that as of this writing Brissett is still in concussion protocol. This is a bit concerning as the Colts had a bye week last week. If Brissett is cleared he finds himself in a great spot for fantasy success. The Titans were just torched by Big Ben and the Steelers and are one of the QB friendliest teams in the league. The Colts typically don’t run the ball successfully so you should see plenty of drop backs for the Brisket.

 

Running Back:

Mark Ingram: $8,300 vs. L.A. Rams (Road)

If you choose to pay up for a running back this week I think Ingram is the player to target. The Rams biggest weakness is their run defense and the Saints biggest strength is their run offense. I expect the Saints to keep pounding the rock with Ingram and have some Kamara sprinkled in. Ingram has been an absolute beast this year and I fully expect 100 yards rushing and at least one score in the coliseum.

Dion Lewis: $4,800 vs. Miami (Home)

Lewis once again led the Patriots running backs in touches with 14 and produced 88 yards with a score in Mexico City. I know the Patriots backfield is a bit of a roulette wheel week to week but I think Lewis is the one back we can trust right now. Miami’s run defense did look slightly improved against Tampa after the Panthers debacle two weeks ago but this game is on the road in potentially chilly weather. Let Lewis keep your lineups warm on Sunday.

Devontae Booker: $3,700 vs. Oakland (Road)

It seems like the Broncos are finally ready to give the rock to their best running back. Booker logged 19 touches last week and most of them came after a big C.J. Anderson fumble that likely cost the Broncos the game. At 3-7 I think the Broncos are going to give Booker a shot at being their long term answer at the running back position. Last year Booker exploded in week 17 against the Raiders for a hundred yards from scrimmage and two scores. This Oakland defense may be even worse this year. Love his three down skill set and this juicy match up.

 

Wide Receiver:

Julio Jones: $7,700 vs. Tampa Bay (Home)

Talk about a frustrating year for one of the most elite talents at his position. Jones has ONE touchdown through ten games. The usage is there. Ten targets against the Seahawks on Monday night has me excited for this match up against the Bucs. No other Falcons pass catcher was targeted over four times so the effort to get Julio the ball was there. I think this is a big “get right” game for Mr. Jones.

T.Y. Hilton: $6,700 vs. Tennessee (Home)

Again, keep an eye on the Brissett concussion situation because if Scott Tolzien is the starter I don’t want anything to do with Hilton because Tolzien is #notgood. If Brissett plays this is a smash spot for Hilton as the Titans have allowed a WR1 performance in every game this year. I fully expect that trend to continue despite Hilton’s one catch for nineteen yard performance in week seven.

Emmanuel Sanders: $5,200 vs. Oakland (Road)

Sanders has seen 19 targets over the last two weeks and is coming off a disappointing game against the Bengals where he only had two catches for fifteen yards which will keep his ownership low. I know Brock Osweiler isn’t good but I’m hoping that the OC change in Denver helps Sanders against a Oakland secondary that just gave up three touchdowns and over 300 yards to the G.O.A.T.

Bonus:

Corey Davis: $4,900 vs. Indianapolis (Road)

I can feel it coming in the air tonight, oh lord. It’s the Corey Davis breakout we have all felt is on the way. I think this is the week folks. Davis still led the Titans in targets last week against the Steelers despite some mistakes in route running etc. I won’t over saturate my lineups with Davis but I’m going to make damn sure I sprinkle him in my tournaments.

 

Tight End:

Rob Gronkowski: $6,900 vs. Miami (Home)

The milly maker slate is a pretty ugly one for tight ends and the Dolphins continue to be vulnerable so I don’t see too much of an issue paying up for Gronk after a down game.

Jared Cook: $4,600 vs. Denver (Home)

Jared Cook has eclipsed 100 yards in two of the past four games. I wouldn’t be shocked if he does it again versus the Broncos. Even if the yardage isn’t there I think Cook finds his way into the end zone.

Tyler Kroft: $3,900 vs. Cleveland (Home)

This is purely a “I’m hoping for a TD” type of play. Kroft hasn’t been setting the world on fire with targets but this is a plus match up this week and we did just see Mercedes Lewis score a TD against the Browns so there is hope!

 

Defense:

Jacksonville: $4,100 vs. Arizona (Road)

Blaine Gabbert revenge game! I think he gift wraps a few turnovers for his former team. Sacksonville might have another ten sack game in them this year. That Cardinals line is rough so fire up the Jags, they good.

Carolina: $3,000 vs. New York Jets (Road)

This Panthers unit has been low key awesome this year. The Jets are on the road and the Josh McCown resurgence has looked like it’s hit the wall. Panthers might be my heaviest played defense this week.

New Orleans: $2,500 vs. L.A. Rams (Road)

This is a bit of a hail mary play. The Rams only scored one touchdown last week and will be without Robert Woods in this game. Can they bounce back? Is Robert Woods really that important to this offense? Is the Saints D really that good? I don’t have the answer to any of those questions but I’m willing to play them here and there.

 

That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week twelve! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at insider@tffgurus.com or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!

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Find me on Twitter @DaFantasyFather

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