Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week Eleven
As we start to wind down the fantasy football regular season and your teams are either in playoff contention or looking forward to 2018 I want to remind you of the stress reducing benefit of playing DFS! No waivers, No free agents, no injuries to worry about! Last minute inactive? No need to rush to the FA pool for a hot pickup. Man, maybe I should just play DFS and not season long from now on…….
As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Alvin Kamara, A.J. Green, Robby Anderson, Marqise Lee, Eric Ebron, Garret Celek
First Downs: Andy Dalton, Eli Manning, Carlos Hyde,
Punts: Josh McCown, Leonard Fournette, Terrelle Pryor, Adam Humphries, Cameron Brate, All defenses (womp womp)
On to this weeks picks:
Alex Smith: $6,700 vs. New York Giants (Road)
The Giants made C.J. Beathard a top five QB in week ten. What do you think Alex Smith is going to do? A Kansas City stack is albeit expensive but makes a ton of sense this week. The Giants have given up on 2017 and their play reflects this. Ryan Gosling is about to tear it up at MetLife stadium and continue his run for the MVP of the league.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: $5,300 vs. Miami (Road)
If you watched Monday Night Football you know why Fitzpatrick is on this list. The Dolphins made Cam Newton look like vintage Randall Cunningham out there! Fitzpatrick should see little resistance in the passing game. If you don’t want to invest as heavily in a Chiefs stack a Tampa stack makes a lot of sense as Mike Evans is the only player you will have to pay up for and sprinkle in some studs elsewhere. Can Fitzmagic go over 300 yards and multiple scores? I think he can and will!
Blake Bortles: $5,200 vs. Cleveland (Road)
Every time I say his name I want to puke a little bit in my mouth but Bortles has been shockingly decent as of late and now draws the Browns. Bortles is averaging 290 yards and a score over his last three games. The Browns run defense is one of the best in the league and may force Bortles to throw more and I like the fact the Bortles isn’t scared to take off and run too.
Kareem Hunt: $8,000 vs. New York Giants (Road)
A week off following his lowest snap percentage of the year, Hunt may not be as highly owned as he was previously as players may be scared of usage trends. I’m all in on Hunt this week. This is a great match up for him to exploit and I look for him to finally get back in the end zone after a SIX week absence.
Jerrick Mckinnon: $5,700 vs. L.A. Rams (Home)
A week after only seeing twelve touches, Mckinnon’s price is in a very sexy spot against the Rams. Latavius was the one who scored last week against the Redskins but as we all know Mckinnon is the talent in this backfield. I expect a nice bounce back game in what should be a high scoring affair.
Doug Martin: $4,500 vs. Miami (Road)
The ghost of Jonathan Stewart ran for over 100 yards and the Panthers ran for 294! yards as a team on Monday night. Fire up Martin on the cheap in your flex this week as he shouldn’t get game scripted out like he did the last two weeks as the Bucs trailed the majority of the time. 100 yards and a score for the Muscle Hamster.
Rex Burkhead: $3,600 vs. Oakland (Mexico)
Usage has been up three straight weeks, Gillislee was inactive and Rex looked great on the field. Plus match up with a dirt cheap price this week in what may turn into a slug fest on offense. Yes please! #GOAThead
Mike Evans: $7,900 vs. Miami (Road)
Evans missed last weeks game while serving his one game suspension for blind siding the Saints Marshon Lattimore. He returns in an absolute smash spot for production. The Dolphins looked cooked on defense on Monday night and Fitzpatrick tends to pepper his WR1 with a massive amount of targets so I absolutely love Evans this week. Stack Fitz, Martin, Evans and Brate this week.
Deandre Hopkins: $6,100 vs. Arizona (Home)
A lot of players will be down on Hopkins based on his match up with Patrick Peterson this week which makes him a great value play. His volume and target share shouldn’t change much so I like this spot at this price in a week where there aren’t a ton of great wide receiver plays. I may avoid Nuk in cash games but I’ll definitely sprinkle him in my tournament lineups.
Amari Cooper: $6,000 vs. Patriots (Mexico)
I really like Cooper this week as Malcolm Butler really struggled covering Emmanuel Sanders on Sunday night. As I stated earlier, this game could turn into a shoot out and for that reason I want some exposure to Cooper. He’s been extremely up and down this season so there is risk involved but I’m willing to roll the dice that this is a boom week.
Jamison Crowder: $4,300 vs. New Orleans (Road)
Jamison Crowder lives! In the last two games he’s played Crowder has averaged 12 targets, 6.5 receptions, and a 100 yards receiving but with zero touchdowns. I really like his chances against the Saints in week 11 to match those averages BUT with a TD!
Travis Kelce: $7,300 vs. New York Giants (Road)
The price is sky high and a ton of people will be on to Kelce this week as The Giants are the worst in the league at covering the tight end and the position scores every week against them, literally. Sprinkle him in here and there but don’t get too heavy on your ownership. Chalk city.
Vernon Davis: $4,600 vs. New Orleans (Road)
Keep an eye on Jordan Reed’s status during the week. Wash, rinse, repeat. Davis has averaged six catches and over seventy yards in Reed’s absence the last two weeks. The Saints do a nice job against the tight end position but Davis and Crowder have been Cousins go to receivers recently so the volume is safe and sound.
Tyler Kroft: $2,900 vs. Denver (Road)
Kroft drew six targets in week ten but only hauled in one catch for four yards. Not ideal but this is a great spot to bounce back. The Broncos linebackers are beat up right now and their cover corners will force targets to the middle of the field. I mean Dwayne Allen score against the Broncos last week. His first catch of the season, it’s week eleven and he’s been healthy all season! Anyhoo, Kroft is my red zone raider of the week.
Baltimore: $3,400 vs. Green Bay (Road)
The Packers offense looked a little better but the Ravens come in with fresh legs and force some turnovers and get a defensive score.
Arizona: $3,200 vs. Houston (Road)
Tom Savage and touchdowns don’t really go well together and the Cardinals defense has been playing solid as of late.
Chicago: $2,700 vs. Detroit (Home)
A wild card play. Detroit has played well on offense but not quite as well on the road where Chicago has excelled on defense at home. Let’s go Bears!
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week eleven! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!