Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week 9
Welcome to week nine everybody! We have six more teams on bye and many heavy hitters that we normally like to play on a weekly basis. The Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, Vikings, Bears and Browns leave us with a tighter slate of players to choose from. Have no fear, Doug is here! I’m going to help you build those lineups and win that money this week!
As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo D
First Downs: Carson Wentz, Andy Dalton, Jordan Howard, Chris Thompson, Joe Mixon, Josh Doctson, New Orleans D, New England D
Punts: Legarrette Blount, Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton, Desean Jackson, Hunter Henry, Jason Witten, Nick O’Leary
On to this weeks picks:
Deshaun Watson: $8,100 vs. Indianapolis (Home)
THE hottest name in fantasy football! Watson is the chalkiest of plays this week and a Texans heavy stack makes a lot of sense against the lowly Colts. I won’t get too heavily invested in Watson in tournaments but I’m all about that Watson life in cash games where you need a safer floor.
Dak Prescott: $6,700 vs. Kansas City (Home)
Zeke is officially suspended for the next six games and I think that means the arrow points up for Dak. He will have to carry the load going forward and I especially like what I see this week at home versus the Chiefs. The Chiefs secondary is bleeding points on a weekly basis and I think Dak takes advantage of this plus match up in his first game as the alpha dog in the Cowboys offense.
Jared Goff: $5,500 vs. New York Ginats (Road)
Goff is my favorite lower priced option this week at the quarterback position. On paper this looks like a bad match up but Janoris Jenkins has been suspended indefinitely by the team and they have been giving up good performances to quarterbacks over the past month. The Rams lead the NFL in points per game and I think they hang another thirty burger as they have had two weeks to prepare for the Giants.
Lamar Miller: $6,200 vs. Indianapolis (Home)
A big home favorite with a large projected point total in a plus match up makes Lamar Miller a great play and affordable stack with Watson this week. It appears the days with him giving up double digit touches to D’onta Foreman are over for the time being. He should log twenty plus touches with a good chance to score.
Alfred Morris: $5,500 vs. Kansas City (Home)
Did you see Denver run the ball against Kansas City last week? They made it look too easy! I think Alf is the back that benefits most in Zeke’s absence. Some will want to wait before playing him and that’s all well and good as a “I wan’t to see it” strategy is just fine in redraft etc. but in DFS you need to be proactive and bold! That’s how you win the big money folks!
Adrian Peterson: $5,600 vs. San Francisco (Road)
Talk about a game with an ugly fantasy landscape. I think this will be a low scoring ground and pound type of game for both teams and that benefits A.D. the most. Drew Stanton is terrible and I don’t think they want him throwing more than twenty passes. I like Peterson’s floor and the fact that he isn’t “sexy” should keep his ownership relatively low. Take advantage.
Alex Collins: $4,600 vs. Tennessee (Road)
Still splitting time with Buck Allen, Collins is clearly the more electric and explosive option for the Ravens. I think this fact earns him even more snaps and touches against a middle of the road run defense of the road in Tennessee. Look for him to exceed one hundred yards on the ground and a touchdown!
Michael Thomas: $7,200 vs. Tampa Bay (Home)
Michael Thomas is due. Thomas is enjoying ten targets a game but has not scored in over a month. He’s posted at least seven receptions and seventy seven yards in four of his last five games and now gets to face the porous Tampa secondary at home. All the Michael Thomas this week folks!
Dez Bryant: $6,400 vs. Kansas City (Home)
Dez is about to ball out over the next six weeks with Zeke suspended and it all starts this week. The Chiefs sport one of the worst secondaries and Marcus Peters is a great play maker but an over rated cover corner which when Dez is lined up on him can beat him with physicality and precise route running. Throw up the X this week as Dez finally surpasses the seventy five yard mark and two scores!
Sterling Shepard: $5,200 vs. L.A. Rams (Home)
Evan Engram has been carrying the Giants pass offense with all the injuries the wide receiver corps has endured. Enter Sterling Shepard. He’s healthy and manning the slot with very little competition for targets. He should see a great amount of volume in what may be a bit of a shootout. I’ll take volume, combined with price on Shepard this week.
T.Y. Hilton: $4,900 vs. Houston (Road)
Sammy Watkins: $4,200 vs. New York Giants (Road)
I’ll lump these two disappointing assets together for week nine. Both under priced, in a plus match up with very nice prices. I wouldn’t touch them in cash games but both Hilton and Watkins are intriguing in tournaments. Sprinkle in one or the other here and there but do go to crazy as they call it “boom or bust” for a reason!
Cameron Brate: $4,500 vs. New Orleans (Road)
Slow and steady wins the race and Cameron Brate has been a TE1 in every game he’s played this season. Winston loves Brate and the Bucs may have to lean pass heavy to keep up with the Saints on the turf.
Tyler Kroft: $3,900 vs. Jacksonville (Road)
The Jags secondary is absolutely elite. This usually forces opposing offenses to funnel targets to the tight end positions and that’s why I like Kroft this week. Much like Brate he’s been a pretty safe bet week to week. I’ll take fifty yards and a score for $400 Alex!
Jonnu Smith: $3,400 vs. Baltimore (Home)
Delanie Walker is extremely questionable this week with an ankle injury so keep an eye on that situation. If Walker is inactive I LOVE Smith this week. One of the most athletic tight ends in this years draft, Smith has already shown that he can get in the end zone for the Titans. The Ravens tend to lock down opposing receivers much like the Jaguars so Smith could see a handful of targets from Mariota on Sunday.
Arizona: $3,400 vs. San Francisco (Road)
The Niners offense is a mess and Jimmy G won’t be playing this week it looks like. The Niners get beat hard this week. That’s a C.J. Beathard joke folks. I’ll be here all week, try the veal.
Philadelphia: $3,300 vs. Denver (Home)
Denver is starting Brock Osweiler at qaurterback. Enough said.
Atlanta: $2,600 vs. Carolina (Road)
The Panthers have been up and down and just traded their third best receiver. I have a hunch they might struggle a bit against a faster Falcons defense. I like to save money when I can on defense and this looks like the best way to do so this week.
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week nine! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at email@example.com or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!