Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week 8
Seven teams failed to score an offensive touchdown in week seven. If you had any Broncos, Cardinals, Colts, Bears, Panthers, Titans or Browns you probably didn’t do all that well and for that, my condolences. We have six teams on bye this week so with a smaller player pool we have to dive into the deep end to find you some value plays!
As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Dak Prescott, Tyrod Taylor, Dez Bryant, Lesean McCoy, Jimmy Graham, Jacksonville D
First Downs: Carlos Hyde, Joe Mixon, Hunter Henry, Minnesota D
Punts: Brett Hundley, Frank Gore, Davante Adams, Sammy Watkins, Kyle Rudolph, Bengals D
On to this weeks picks:
Carson Wentz: $7,300 vs. San Francisco (Home)
Recency bias, chalk, call it what you will but Carson Wentz is in another smash spot this week. The league leader in passing touchdowns, Wentz is having himself an MVP caliber season in just his second year. The only reason I can think of to fade Wentz this week is possible game flow as the Eagles may get up big on the 49ers. More on that later……
Tyrod Taylor: $5,900 vs. Oakland (Home)
I have found my new Carson Palmer! With the likely season ending injury to Palmer my new favorite low priced quality quarterback is officially Tyrod Taylor. He finds himself in another great match up versus the Raiders who are coming off of a season saving win. Trap game alert! The Raiders are flying west to east for a 1:00 game coming off of a major win. This has all the makings of a let down and I think TyGOD finishes with 250 yards, two scores and another 50 yards on the ground. Deep tournament play this week to pair with Taylor is Deonte Thompson.
Andy Dalton: $5,700 vs. Indianapolis (Home)
The Colts have been outscored by 101 points over seven games. Andy Dalton only passed for 160 yards against the Steelers last week but he did average 300 yards the previous two weeks. The Colts made Blake Bortles a QB1 last week so I think the Red Rifle gets back on his horse and rides his way back into some of my lineups.
Jordan Howard: $6,800 vs. New Orleans (Road)
I know Howard isn’t going to offer much in the passing game but let’s be honest here, The Bears don’t want to pass the ball anyway. Mitchell Trubisky threw the ball SEVEN times. That’s rare air, no pun intended. Look for Howard to pound the rock early and often. The Saints play much better defense on the road this year so don’t let the stats fool you. (per @tffgurus)
Chris Thompson: $5,800 vs. Dallas (Home)
The only player leading his team in both rushing and receiving, Thompson is enjoying a RB1 season and picking up the slack for Washington’s disappointing offense in 2017. I love his price this week against a Dallas defense that is susceptible to pass catching backs. Thompson is the lead back there and they really have been running their offense through him. Look for 6 catches with 100 yards from scrimmage and a score from the former Seminole.
Legarette Blount: $5,100 vs. San Fransisco (Road)
I spoke earlier about game flow concerns in this game as it is in the range of outcomes that the Eagles could get up big against the 49ers. For that reason I like Blount force trauma this week. He saw a decrease in snaps with Smallwood back in the lineup but this is what we call in New England a “Blount game” where he sees a ton of work with a big lead. He should be good for some decent yardage and a score with upside for more.
Joe Mixon: $4,700 vs. Indianapolis (Home)
The Colts lead the league in rushing touchdowns allowed with 10 on the season. The Bengals didn’t get Mixon any touches in the second half against Pittsburgh and he openly lobbied for the ball in his post game comments. I expect Mixon to get back to his 15-20 touch workload and shine against the Colts. Squeaky wheel get the grease narrative!
Keenan Allen: $7,300 vs. New England (Road)
Scoreless over his last six games, Allen is my favorite higher priced receiver play this week. The Patriots defense surprised last week holding the Falcons to just seven points but Julio Jones turned 13 targets into 9 catches and 99 yards and a score. Keenan Allen is seeing almost 10 targets a game and is due for a score against a smaller corner in Malcom Butler. Volume paired with match up is a beautiful thing in DFS.
T.Y. Hilton: $5,600 vs. Cincinnati (Road)
Tournament play alert! Hilton at $5,600. Holy buy. I wouldn’t touch him in cash games but this is the kind of play that wins people a million dollars. A great player in a bad situation with a depressed price in a game where his team will be playing from behind and forced to throw. Hilton has been boom or bust this season but this a boom week.
Desean Jackson: $5,100 vs. Carolina (Home)
Desean Jackson has been sneaky consistent this year. Averaging seven targets a game over his last five and going over 73 yards in three of them. Another great tournament play with a little more safety than Hilton offers. The Panthers will actually have to play pass defense this week against a good quarterback. Gut call that Jackson tops 100 yards and a score. YOLO.
Josh Doctson: $3,900 vs. Dallas (Home)
It looks like Doctson has officially supplanted Pryor as the starting outside receiver in Washington. Doctson played a career high 54 snaps last week against the Eagles. This game should be a high scoring affair and I think Doctson gets involved with a long touchdown.
Hunter Henry: $4,800 vs. New England (Road)
His price is finally climbing and deservedly so as Henry has provided a safe floor since week three. I like the spot here even though the Patriots held Austin Hooper to just one catch last week. Henry is much more involved than Hooper is in his respective situation.
Jason Witten: $4,200 vs. Washington (Road)
The Redskins stink against the TE. They gave up yet another score last week and the dad runner is a nice option this week as the Redskins likely get Norman back to cover Dez. This should force Dak to exploit the middle of the field where Mr. New Balance himself excels. PPR format gold,
Nick O’Leary: $3,100 vs. Oakland (Home)
My dumpster dive of the week! Mr. No gloves, dad runner junior Nick O’Leary to the rescue! O’Leary only had two targets last week but turned them into a slow burning 58 yards. Logan Thomas of all players caught a touchdown. This week it’s O’Leary. 50 yards and a score. Go Noles!
New Orleans: $3,400 vs. Chicago (Home)
If New Orleans manages to slow the Bears run game the Bears are going to find it difficult to score. Throw in a turnover or two and the Saints are a decent play this week.
Buffalo: $2,900 vs. Oakland (Home)
I spoke earlier about this being a trap game for the Raiders and for that reason I love their defense this week.
New England: $2,400 vs. L.A. Chargers (Home)
Last time I checked the Chargers aren’t an elite offense and the Pats just held the Falcons to seven points. This price is just bizarre this week. Take advantage!
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week eight! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at email@example.com or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!