Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week Three
All of my confidence coming out of a strong week one has been shook after a relatively terrible week two. Ezekiel Elliott KILLED me last week as I had him in most of my lineups. Lesson learned here is to make sure you don’t get too overweight on any one player in tournaments. Every week I learn something new and I enjoy using the things I’ve learned into building the next weeks lineups. Value has dried up a bit this week so it’s going to be a bit of a challenge to find those diamonds in the rough to fill in those lineups but it can be done!
As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Tom Brady, Ty Montgomery, Jacquizz Rodgers, J.J. Nelson,
First Downs: Carson Palmer, Jared Goff, Julio Jones, Chris Hogan, Colby Fleener, Oakland defense, Philadelphia defense, Rams defense
Punts: Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, Brandin Cooks, Jimmy Graham, Charles Clay
On to this weeks picks:
Cam Newton: $6,600 vs. New Orleans (Home)
Cam has been pretty brutal thus far in 2017 but there is no better remedy than the Saints defense! Cam has a lengthy history of having his best fantasy games of his career against New Orleans and I think he keeps that streak alive and well this week. I wouldn’t play Cam in cash games because one of my range of outcomes is that he could struggle. You want safe bets in cash games and high upside plays in tournaments. That’s exactly what Cam brings to the table on Sunday.
Matthew Stafford: $6,200 vs. Atlanta (Home)
I originally had Ben Roethlisberger in this spot but chose to pivot to Stafford for one reason; game script. Stafford should find himself involved in a game where the Lions will need to throw the ball often to keep pace with the Falcons in a game that has a healthy point total in Vegas. I also tend to like Stafford quite a bit when he is playing at home so that factors in as well. He’s not a sexy pick but he will get the job done for you in cash and tournaments.
Deshone Kizer: $5,000 vs. Indianapolis (Road)
My cheap QB play of the week is here! All the arrows point up in a match up against a soft Colts secondary. Kizer isn’t afraid to throw down field and it definitely stinks that Corey Coleman is out because he would have been a great play this week too. I like the extra points that you can mine from Kizers rushing ability here as well. I can see a line of 250 yards passing with a touchdown and another 40 yards rushing and a score. That would be #greatvalue
Le’Veon Bell: $8,800 vs. Chicago (Road)
A price reduction, a potentially positive game flow situation and a healthy work load make me really warm up to paying up for Bell this week. He’s been a pretty big disappointment in both DFS and season long leagues thus far but I think he’s finally going to fully shake off all the rust and absolutely ball out in Chicago. If you are looking to pay up at the running back position I also recommend Jay Ajayi at $7,700 against the lowly Jets defense. Workload is key and sets these guys apart from the field.
Derrick Henry: $5,300 vs. Seattle (Home)
**disclaimer** I would only play Henry if Demarco Murray is declared out because of his hamstring injury. Henry will be the chalkiest of plays if this scenario plays out. I’m perfectly fine with playing Henry heavily in tournaments much like I did with Montgomery last week. Derrick Henry should have a great day against a Seattle run defense that didn’t look all that great against Carlos Hyde in week two and there would be nobody to push him for work making him a “bell cow” back.
Darren Sproles: $3,900 vs. New York Giants (Home)
What else do the Eagles have in that backfield? I’ll wait. Now that your back and actually said Legarrette Blount, shame on you! Darren Sproles only touched the ball 12 times in week two but turned that into 78 yards from scrimmage. I think they get him more involved as the Giants do have an elite secondary which makes me think they will lean on Sproles in the short passing game where he is a mismatch against their slower linebacker corps. There is always the possibility of a special teams score with Sproles too.
Lamar Miller: $5,000 vs. New England (Road)
My bonus plays are both players that I’m not a huge fan of in redraft but I like them enough to type words about them this week. Player one is Lamar Miller and this is solely based on the fact that I think the Patriots take away Deandre Hopkins this week and Miller should see twenty plus touches against an under performing front seven. I know they mixed Foreman in last week but Miller should still see the bulk of the work and a running back at this price with that type of volume is worth a shot.
A.J. Green: $8,100 vs. Green Bay (Road)
A new offensive play caller is exactly what the doctor ordered in Cincinnati. I believe Green bounces back in a big way on the road in Green Bay. He should see double digit targets and exceed 100 yards receiving with a score against a secondary that just gave up a 5/105 stat line against Julio Jones.
Davante Adams: $5,600 vs. Cincinnatti (Home)
Here is another injury situation to keep an eye on before you lock in your lineups on Sunday. If Jordy Nelson is ruled out it’s wheels up for Adams. I also feel the same way if Cobb misses this game too. The bottom line is if either of them are ruled out it gives Adams a larger target share and touchdown upside in an elite offense with an elite quarterback. at $5,600 I just don’t see many other options that have the same potential as Adams.
Rashard Higgins: $4,000 vs. Indianapolis (Road)
No Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt’s in the dog house, enter RASHARD HIGGINS!! An elite college producer at Colorado State, Higgins has had his ups and downs in the NFL and was cut as part of the Browns final 53 man roster. He landed himself on the practice squad and was called up last week and posted a 7/95 line working predominately from the slot. A Matt Harmon “reception perception” darling, I think Higgins is here to stay and is a great play this week in a plus match up.
Devin Funchess: $4,200 vs. New Orleans (Home)
Greg Olsen is out for an extended period of time and Funchess is playing a ton of snaps. I think he starts to get more looks and this is a great game for him to start. He draws P.J. Williams in coverage this week and that’s a huge plus for Funchess as Williams is not good at football. I now officially feel dirty for writing up Devin Funchess. Gross.
Zach Ertz: $5,000 vs. New York Giants (Home)
The Giants are softer than a loaf of wonderbread in the middle of the field. Ertz is the chalk this week so tread carefully with ownership in tournaments and roster him in most of, if not all of your cash game lineups.
Austin Hooper: $3,800 vs. Detroit (Road)
Speaking of soft in the middle defenses, Detroit isn’t much better than the Giants and with Jarrad Davis potentially missing this game with a concussion it means Hooper matches up with Tahir Whitehead in coverage. Whitehead was awful in coverage last year and I expect the Falcons to exploit this early and often.
Zach Miller: $3,000 vs. Pittsburgh (Home)
The Bears are throwing the ball a ton and their receivers aren’t exactly a talented group of players so I’m going to go with the ageless wonder Zach Miller this week to lead the team in receptions and yardage against the Steelers. He probably won’t score a touchdown but his usage should be relatively high in a game where the Bears will likely be trailing the majority of the time. For $3,000 I can see the upside but I’m using binoculars to do it.
Pittsburgh Steelers: $3,400 vs. Chicago (Road)
Mike Glennon and his offense stinks. The Steelers should be good for a handful of sacks and turnovers this week. A fairly obvious play.
Philadelphia Eagles: $3,000 vs. New York Giants (Home)
Did you watch Monday Night Football? The Giants are a MESS offensively and now they travel to Philadelphia. Sacks on top of sacks on top of sacks this week.
Cleveland Browns: $3,000 vs. Indianapolis (Road)
The Browns defense hasn’t been THAT bad this year and I look for them to play well against a sub par Colts offense.
Tennessee Titans: $2,700 vs. Seattle (Home)
My sneaky play of the week! The Seahawks travel East and only scored 12! points against the 49ers at home. This offense has almost been as bad as the Giants. The Titans front seven should dominate the putrid offensive line of Seattle. I’ll likely have a ton of the Titans defense in GPP’s this week.
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week three! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!