Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week Two
Week one is in the books and it was a profitable one for this guy! I cashed in 5/6 lineups including a Yahoo! one I forgot I entered in for free. That was a nice surprise. We now have some data that we can work with to help construct our week two lineups which is a great feeling. Week one is always a gamble as it feels like you are going in blind and we won’t really have any “trends” until about week five but I feel that having a base line to draw conclusions from makes me feel more comfortable in big tournaments.
As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
Touchdowns: Carson Wentz, Lesean McCoy, Todd Gurley, Delanie Walker, Zach Ertz, Steelers Defense, Rams Defense
First Downs: Derek Carr, Carlos Hyde, Larry Fitzgerald, Evan Engram
Punts: Carson Palmer, Julio Jones, Zay Jones, Giants Defense
On to this weeks picks:
Tom Brady: $7,900 vs. New Orleans (Road)
The champs got knocked off their pedestal in week one and Tom Brady looks to bounce back big against a defense that just got carved up by Sam Bradford. He’s the most expensive QB on the slate so I wouldn’t put him in every lineup but I do want some exposure to him as this game currently sits at a 55 point total in Vegas. I wouldn’t be opposed to starting Drew Brees at $7,600 either. As you will read below, I am all about exposure to this game. Two opportunistic defenses versus two elite offenses. This should be a fun game to kickoff Sunday’s slate.
Carson Palmer: $6,000 vs. Indianapolis (Road)
I know, I know, Palmer was really bad in week one. He threw three picks, lost David Johnson for most of the season and struggled with accuracy. Guys, it’s the Colts defense this week! They gave up over 300 yards to Jared Goff last week! Palmer will bounce back this week and his ownership should dip because of that awful performance in Detroit. The Cardinals will employ a RBBC now that DJ is on I.R. so I expect Palmer to sling it forty plus times for over 300 yards and two scores.
Jared Goff: $5,100 vs. Washington (Home)
The aforementioned Mr. Goff looked like a solid NFL Quarterback against the Colts. Can he do it two weeks in a row? I think he can. The Redskins defense has trouble in the pass rush department and their secondary doesn’t necessarily scare anyone so Goff should find the time to find open receivers. At this price Goff allows you to stack some pricey running backs and wide receivers this week which is a strategy I like to use from time to time.
Ezekiel Elliott: $7,800 vs. Denver (Road)
Give me the bell cow back against a very good passing defense every single time. Zeke should see twenty five or more touches in this one and he showed in week one that he is going to be more involved in the passing game this year. His price actually went down this week but I’m not scared of the Broncos run defense what so ever so it’s all in on Zeke week!
Ty Montgomery: $5,800 vs. Atlanta (Road)
Speaking of “bell cow” running backs, TyMo had the second highest snap share at the position in week one which clearly states that he is “the guy” in Green Bay. The Falcons really struggle against pass catching running backs (see James White in the Super Bowl and Tarik Cohen in week one) so I fully expect Montgomery to have a HUGE game on Atlanta’s turf this week. This game is also a great one to target when building your lineups as it currently sits at a 53.5 point total in Vegas. He is the chalk play this week so expect a high ownership percentage. This does not scare me off of him at all. Get him in your lineups.
Jacquizz Rodgers: $4,400 vs. Chicago (Home)
The Jacuzzi looks to bubble up and get hot this week as the Buccaneers finally make their 2017 debut. I know the Bears have a solid defense but they did just lose their best linebacker, Jerell Freeman, to the I.R. so Rodgers should see some more room to run. When Rodgers was the feature back in 2016 he saw an average of 23 touches a game and I think that usage will be pretty consistent here making him a nice value play.
Alvin Kamara: $3,500 vs. New England (Home)
I talked about wanting exposure to this game earlier and I think Kamara is a very sneaky play this week. He saw the most snaps at running back for the Saints in week one and with this being a potential shoot out means Peterson should be riding the pine again. The Patriots have almost always had issues covering satellite backs in space and Sean Payton is too smart of a head coach to overlook this. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kamara exceed 100 yards from scrimmage and a score making him a potential tournament winning play!
Julio Jones: $9,200 vs. Green Bay (Home)
Courtesy of the great Adam Levitan: “Julio was under 70 yards six times last year. His lines in games immediately following: 5-106-1, 12-300-1, 7-139-1, 8-111-1, 7-113-0, 7-96-1. You can book Julio in for a big game as he breaks in the new stadium in Atlanta.
Brandin Cooks: $8,200 vs. New Orleans (Road)
Did you see what Stefon Diggs did to the Saints on Monday night? Well if you did there is no reason to think that Brandin Cooks shouldn’t have his way with his old team Sunday. I think Brady looks for Cooks early and often and he explodes for 150 yards and two scores in this one.
Chris Hogan: $5,600 vs. New Orleans (Road)
Hogan worked primarily out of the slot versus the Chiefs and it looks like Danny Amendola will miss this game with a concussion as he didn’t practice again on Weds. opening up the opportunity for Hogan to be a mismatch all over the field. No Edelman, no Amendola and only Cooks and Gronk to compete with for targets makes Hogan a good mid price value play in your lineups.
J.J. Nelson: $3,800 vs. Indianapolis (Road)
Call this one a hunch for your tournament plays but I think Nelson scores a long touchdown in this one and at $3,800 that’s all you are really looking for to give you an advantage in big tournaments to be honest.
Jimmy Graham: $4,900 vs. San Francisco (Home)
I expect the Seattle passing game to rebound nicely against a fairly soft Niners defense. I know they held Greg Olsen in check in week one at home but they are heading up to Seattle where Graham’s stat splits favor him the most. I think 70 yards and a score in the hawks nest sounds about right.
Coby Fleener: $3,100 vs. New England (Home)
The Patriots like to take away your best play maker and they did a good job on Travis Kelce last Thursday so what does this mean for Fleener? It means the Patriots will be keying in on Michael Thomas and that Fleener should see a fair share of targets and you can justify playing him at an affordable price in a high scoring game.
Charles Clay: $3,000 vs. Carolina (Road)
Thirty percent target share! Whew boy does Tyrod Taylor love him some Charles Clay. The Panthers are middle of the road versus the TE position so we should see Clay maintain his workload this week and at $3,000 is a great way to save some cash and play some of the big dogs.
Oakland Raiders: $3,500 vs. New York Jets (Home)
It’s the Jets, traveling east to west and the Raiders defense looked pretty good against the Titans, which was a surprise. Great spot.
L.A. Rams: $3,000 vs. Washington (Home)
The Redskins didn’t exactly look like a well oiled machine against the Eagles so I’m betting the Rams keep them in check at home this week. They also get Aaron Donald back, so yeah, that helps too.
Philadelphia Eagles: $2,900 vs. Kansas City (Road)
The second year in Jim Schwartz’s system is already paying dividends for the Eagles as they put up 22 DK points in week one. Many will fade them on the road versus the Chiefs because of what the Chiefs did to the Patriots on opening night. That game was an outlier to me and I expect the Chiefs to come back down to earth.
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week two! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!