Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week One
It’s the most wonderful time of the year. Week one is upon us! I’m happy to be bringing back my weekly article for your consumption. If you were a loyal reader last year, welcome back, and if you are brand new to this article, thank you for checking it out and I hope you enjoy the weekly content! Draftkings is currently running a FREE contest where if you submit the perfect lineup in week one you could win a BILLION dollars! My lineup is done and it’s fingers crossed baby!
As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it!
On to this weeks picks:
Derek Carr: $6,700 vs. Tennessee (Road)
I always like to target Quarterbacks in games that have high Vegas point totals. Currently sitting at 51 points, this game has the highest point total in week one. Marcus Mariota is similarly priced to Carr at $6,800 so you may see this as a pick em type of situation. I’m leaning Derek Carr here as we don’t really know how their backfield is going to perform and Carr will probably lean on the pass to keep up with the Titans. The Titans revamped their secondary so it may take a while for them to gel so Carr could definitely take advantage. Look for a 300 yard, two touchdown game from the man who was the highest paid player in the league, for a few weeks anyway!
Carson Palmer: $6,000 vs. Detroit (Road)
I think Palmer is primed for a nice rebound season in 2017 and it all starts in Detriot. The Detroit secondary is very exploitable and even though it’s a 1:00 game and on the road, two things Palmer has struggled with since he joined the Cardinals, the match up and price are just too juicy to avoid.
Carson Wentz: $5,300 vs. Washington (Home)
Two Carson’s in the same week,oh my! I really like what Philadelphia has done in the off season to help Wentz in the passing game. The additions of Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith should help Wentz grow in year two. This game currently has a 47.5 point total so we should see some healthy scoring opportunities. I don’t have a lot of faith in Philly’s ground game so don’t be surprised to see Wentz throw the ball 40 times or more in this one.
Lesean McCoy: $8,200 vs. New York Jets (Home)
Here is a pro tip for you. When you construct your lineups make sure to target a running back that is playing at home and is a big favorite. Enter Shady McCoy! He is truly the only show in town in the Bills backfield this year and looks to touch the ball twenty five times a game until the wheels fall off. I wouldn’t blame you for rostering Le’Veon Bell or David Johnson this week but I think Shady offers a tad more value in week one.
Todd Gurley: $6,000 vs. Indianapolis (Home)
A big bounce back candidate in 2017, Todd Gurley looks to hit the ground running at home in week one. We all know that the Colts defense is a bottom rung unit in the league and now they have no Andrew Luck in week one. This means that the Rams should be in possession of the ball early and often which means Gurley touches the rock at least twenty times. I’ll take that volume combined with his talent at a roster friendly price every damn time.
Carlos Hyde: $4,600 vs. Carolina (Home)
Another year and another week that Carlos Hyde is priced at a great value. Hyde finds himself in a similar situation as McCoy and Gurley as a running back that doesn’t have a third down back behind him and a razor thin depth chart leads to zero concerns of a running back by committee situation. Carolina has a pretty good run defense so this is a volume play with a safe floor for me with a potential of some nice upside! 100 yards and a score could be in the cards for Hyde on Sunday.
Julio Jones: $8,500 vs. Chicago (Road)
Flip a coin between Antonio Brown and Julio Jones in week one. I’m leaning Jones as I have a feeling Matt Ryan is going to have to lean on Julio while the Bears run defense gives Freeman and Coleman fits.
Larry Fitzgerald: $5,900 vs. Detroit (Road)
The Cardinals wide receiver depth chart is a bit of a mess at the moment but the one steady player has been and will always be Larry Fitzgerald. The Lions have major issues covering the middle of the field and I would not be surprised to see Fitz lead the league in catches in week one. I’ll take that potential for $5,900 every time. He will be in all of my lineups.
Zay Jones: $3,500 vs. New York Jets (Home)
We now have my first “gut call” of the season! Zay Jones is going to be the number one receiver for the Bills in week one. Jordan Matthews looks like he is going to play but he hasn’t practiced much at all with his new team while Jones has been getting all the reps. Tyrod Taylor needs someone to throw to and I think Jones is a name to know at his price. Six catches for eighty yards and a score is in the range of outcomes for Jones in his NFL debut.
Delanie Walker: $4,300 vs. Oakland (Home)
The Oakland Raiders know they can’t cover the TE position and drafted Obi Melifonwu to help in this area but he recently found himself on the I.R. so make sure to target this mismatch every week in DFS. Delanie Walker should eat in this high scoring week one affair.
Zach Ertz: $3,500 vs. Washington (Road)
With Jordan Matthews gone and the only other player working the middle of the field named Nelson Agholor, Ertz looks to have a big season especially in PPR formats. Wentz and Ertz have shown that the “men with names ending in “Z” is a sure fire connection! Five receptions for seventy five yards and a score against a sub par linebacker group seems about right.
Evan Engram: $2,900 vs. Dallas (Road)
This play really hinges on the health of Odell Beckham Jr. If OBJ misses this game with his ankle injury I look towards Engram and Shepard to pick up the slack. If OBJ does suit up I would look to Austin Hooper at $3,000 and Charles Clay at $3,200 as alternatives to Engram.
Pittsburgh: $3,600 vs. Cleveland (Road)
An emerging defense versus a rookie quarterback in his first ever start. That’s a recipe for fantasy success.
L.A. Rams: $3,200 vs. Indianapolis (Home)
A Wade Phillips defense even sans Aaron Donald versus Scott Tolzien is a cheat code for DFS.
New York Giants: $2,600 vs. Dallas (Road)
I have a hunch that the Cowboys may struggle against the Giants again this year. The Giants defense was second in the league in points allowed and has some nice potential for a turnover or two from America’s team. They are my value play of the week.
That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for week one! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!