Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week 17

Happy New Year everybody! It’s the final week of the regular season and the end of our DraftKings journey in 2016. I will be playing DraftKings in the playoffs and I suggest you do as well! I’m a fan of small slate contests and I actually cash more often in 2-4 game matchups. I will not be providing any content on tffgurus.com for the playoffs but you can always email us at insider@tffgurus.com or shoot me a tweet @dafantasyfather.

As important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.

As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value, which I discussed in the week one article. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it! With that said here are the results from week eight:

Touchdowns: 

Mark Ingram, Cameron Meredith, Antonio Gates, Patriots D

First Downs: 

Matt Barkley, Jordan Howard, T.Y. Hilton, Greg Olsen, Niners D

Punts: 

Cam Newton, Tom Savage, Jonathan Stewart, Malcolm Mitchell, Tyler Lockett (Inj.), C.J. Fiedorowicz, Packers D

 

Quarterback:

Aaron Rodgers: $7,700 vs. Detroit (Road)

The hottest Quarterback in the Nfl in a win and your’e in playoff scenario. Yes please! He’s the highest priced QB this week and I’m perfectly fine with playing him at his price. There is enough value on this slate to roster a few studs together in week 17.

Blake Bortles: $5,600 vs. Indianapolis (Road)

I know he hasn’t been that great this year but after a coaching change Blake put up 325 yards, a passing score and threw in a receiving touchdown to boot! Bortles has finished as the QB6, QB3 and QB3 the last three times he’s faced the Colts. I love his chances to finish within the top 5 this week against a struggling Indy secondary that just gave up three Td’s to Derek Carr last week. 300 yards and a couple of scores help save Blake’s season.

Sam Bradford: $5,200 vs. Chicago (Home)

Sam has put up over 290 yards or more in three straight games and offers a safe floor this week against Chicago. If Bradford can pass for a couple of touchdowns against the Bears, which surprisingly isn’t easy to do, he can be a tournament winner.

Bonus:

Matt Barkley: $5,100 vs. Minnesota (Road)

Volume, volume,volume. A good bet to throw the ball 40 times or more, Barkley should be able to put up respectable numbers against a Vikings defense that just got absolutely shredded by Aaron Rodgers. Barkley is no Rodgers obviously but I like his weapons in the passing game. Despite his five picks last week Barkley still almost had 20 DK points.

E.J. Manuel: $5,000 vs. New York Jets (Road)

Hail Mary play of the week! The Jets secondary stinks and I think Manuel can put up a solid stat line against them. I’m thinking 250 yards passing, 35 rushing yards and two scores. Maybe I’m dreaming or maybe I’m insane, who knows?

 

Running Back:

David Johnson: $9,800 vs. Los Angeles (Road)

All hail the King, David Johnson! I played him almost every week this season and he and Le’veon Bell provided the safest floor at any position this year. It appears Bell is going to rest this week as the Steelers have nothing to play for. Johnson is looking to finish the season with 16,16!! straight games with 100 yards from scrimmage. That’s insane. Put him all your lineups and enjoy!

Bilal Powell: $6,500 vs. Buffalo

It should be a one man show for the Jets this week as Khiry Robinson broke his leg for the third time in two years and Matt Forte is unlikely to play. The Bills just gave up yet another 200 yard rushing game to jay Ajayi last week so Powell should see a lot of success at home. 125 yards from scrimmage and a score.

Latavius Murray: $5,200 vs. Denver (Road)

The way the Raiders have handled their backfield has been maddening in 2016. No Derek Carr should mean that Latavius should see the bulk of work to help Matt Mcgloin control the ball. The Raiders need to win to get the two seed and I think they run the ball 60% of the time making Murray playable at low ownership.

Bonus:

Jacquizz Rodgers: $4,900 vs. Carolina (Road)

Doug Martin is suspended and Charles Sims was just placed on I.R. so it’s clearly the Quizz show this week. The last time Quizz faced the Panthers he went over 125 yards from scrimmage on over thirty touches! The absence of Cameron Brate should also provide Rodgers with a safe floor of receptions. High usage at a low cost. Bada boom!

Darren Mcfadden: $4,300 vs. Philadelphia (Road) 

I’m guessing that Zeke plays a series or two and takes the rest of the day off leaving Mcfadden with the bulk of the work. A nice matchup and we all know Mcfadden is a capable running back so I’m confident he can outperform his price.

 

Wide Receiver:

Jordy Nelson: $8,100 vs. Detroit  (Road)

The safest receiver to own on a week to week basis in 2016, Nelson is primed to finish strong in a must win game against an overrated Lions secondary. 125 yards and at least a score. Stack him with Rodgers and Adams this week and win all the monies.

Cameron Meredith: $5,200 vs. Minnesota (Road)

Welcome in to the Cameron Meredith fan club! My name is Doug and I am the president, nice to meet you! Another great matchup for Meredith this week at a great price. He’s leading the league with 21 catches and 279 yards out of the slot in the last month. That success continues this week and I will probably roster him in every lineup this week. The president of the fan club must support his boy!

Steve Smith Sr.: $4,900 vs. Cincinnati (Road)

Steve Smith just announced that Sunday will be the last game of his career. I have a feeling the Ravens will force feed Smith all day out of the slot in a game that means nothing to either team. Smith could have a monster send off.

Bonus:

Allen Robinson: $5,500 vs. Indianapolis (Road)

We were reminded of what Robinson was capable of last week with his 9 receptions for 147 yard performance. I think he gets fed double digit targets yet again this week making him a great value play.

 

Tight End:

Travis Kelce: $5,000 vs. San Diego (Road)

The clear cut TE1 over the last half of 2016, Kelce looks to add to that success in a game that the Chiefs have to win to have a shot at the division title. Love the matchup this week and he has been hot fire. Pay up at TE this week with some of the RB/WR savings.

Zach Ertz: $4,800 vs. Dallas (Home)

Carson Wentz may throw the ball another 45 times in this one and Dallas gives up the second most receptions to tight ends in the league. Ertz ended with a bang in 2015 and I expect the same in 2016. 10 catches or more isn’t out of the question.

Antonio Gates: $3,800 vs. Kansas City (Home)

Narrative street was in full effect last week and Gates had a receiving touchdown and 8 catches for 94 yards on 13 targets. He needs two touchdowns to break Tony Gonzalez’s record. I say he gets it!

 

Defense:

Buffalo: $3,400 vs. New York Jets (Road)

The Jets are awful and the Bills will be playing under a new coach so I think they come out with some juice on D. Adios Rex!

Arizona: $3,000 vs. Los Angeles (Road)

The Rams haven’t been able to score points and the while the Cardinals have struggled against the pass recently, Goff shouldn’t offer much resistance.

Oakland: $2,800 vs. Denver (Road)

Denver is another team struggling on offense and if the Raiders want to win this one they will play clock control with the running game and I think the D steps up to help in the absence of Derek Carr.

That wraps up Doug’s Draftkings player picks for 2016! Have a happy and safe new year!  If you have any questions please shoot us an email at insider@tffgurus.com or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!

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Find me on Twitter @DaFantasyFather

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