Doug’s Draftkings Players Picks Week 15

 

Who needs the playoffs when you have DFS! If you are out of contention in your season long leagues I highly recommend giving Draftkings a try. No draft or injuries to worry about and you can pick whoever you want as long as you stay within the salary cap. The best part is being able to win money! I’ve done pretty well this season and I only play for small amounts on a week to week basis. If you are new to Draftkings they actually have beginner tournaments for players that don’t have a ton of experience based on their profile and history. These matchups are a great way to get introduced to the game. Read this article, go to www.draftkings.com or download the app and go make yourself some extra Christmas cash!

Now as important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.

As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 3-5X their value, which I discussed in the week one article. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it! With that said here are the results from week eight:

Touchdowns: Lamar Miller, Todd Gurley, Emmanuel Sanders, Robby Anderson, Zach Ertz, Atlanta D

First Downs: Kirk Cousins, Demarco Murray, OBJ, Cincy D

Punts: Jameis Winston, Carson Palmer, Jamison Crowder, Coby Fleener, Jason Witten, Minnesota D

Quarterback:

Tom Brady: $6,700 vs. Denver (Road)

Did you see what Brady did against the number one defense in the NFLon monday night? I know it’s Denver and that has been a house of horrors for Brady in his career but I’m willing to take the risk and use Brady as a contrarian play in tournaments. 300 yards and a couple of scores feels right and if Qb’s across the league play like last week that makes Brady a top five play.

Andrew Luck: $6,400 vs. Minnesota (Road)

Another Qb with a tough road match up, Luck is a volume based contrarian play in this spot. Last week Blake Bortles passed for 257 yards and a score against the vaunted Vikings pass defense. I think Luck, much like Brady can eclipse 300 yards and two scores. Luck will also give you some extra yards on the ground. I expect low ownership for Luck based on the “on paper” match up that will scare people off.

Tyrod Taylor: $5,700 vs. Cleveland (Home)

The Bills welcome Cleveland this week and Tyrod faces their dead last ranked pass defense. I think Taylor has a solid floor for cash games and gives you enough upside for tournaments. The only thing I’m wary of is if Buffalo decides to just run the ball 70% of the time and Taylor only has 20 pass attempts which may be possible. Still safe at this price in my opinion.

Running Back:

Lesean Mccoy: $8,900 vs. Cleveland  (Home)

I don’t blame you if you start your lineups with either David Johnson or Le’veon Bell this week as they are elite options in DFS but Mccoy could have the best day of the three. Mccoy is seeing a ton of volume in the pass game and faces Cleveland’s terrible run defense so his floor is great and his ceiling is massive. 150 yards and two scores this week from Shady. Mike Gillislee endzone sniper be damned!

Lagarette Blount: $5,000 vs. Denver (Road)

I love Blount this week. I know he doesn’t catch passes but his touchdown upside makes him a steal at this price.  Denver is giving up over 120 yards a game on the ground and Blount will see the majority of work for the Patriots. Coming off of a 18 carry, 72 yards and a score against the Ravens I have to think Blount goes for over 100 and a score this week. Easy money!

T.J. Yeldon: $4,100 vs. Houston (Road)

Playing Yeldon really hinges on if Chris Ivory and Denard Robinson are out. If they both miss another game, Yeldon could be a tournament winning play. Yeldon was the bell cow back last week against Minnesota, touching the ball 24 times for 90 yards with seven catches. A respectable line against a good defense. Yeldon faces the 18th ranked Houston run D this week and I love his potential to put up a 125 yard, six catch and a score game. Keep an eye on the injury reports this week and the inactive list 90 minutes before the game. If Yeldon is the only healthy back I build my lineups around him.

Bonus:

Kenneth Dixon: $3,800 vs. Philadelphia (Home)

It looks like Dixon has FINALLY taken over the Ravens backfield! It only took until week 14.  19 touches, 8 receptions, 81 yards and a score cemented himself as the lead dog. I think he sees a similar workload this week against the struggling Eagles D and benefits from check down Flacco. Save some money with Dixon to help pay up for one of the big three running backs this week.

Wide Receiver:

Jordy Nelson: $7,300  vs. Chicago (Road)

Jordy is averaging almost a TD a game and is tied to the hottest QB in the league. This game is supposed to be freezing cold but I still like Nelson to put up a 5/75/1 line. I don’t like a lot of the higher priced receivers this week and I think Nelson has the safest floor out of the top 10 options.

Sammy Watkins: $5,900 vs. Cleveland (Home)

Playing over 90% of the snaps last week, Watkins appears to be all the way back. I love his upside in a drool worthy match up. He should see close to double digit targets and I think he puts up a long score in this one. He has the most upside in this price range for me.

Tyreek Hill: $5,700 vs. Tennessee (Home)

Emmanuel Sanders and Demariyus Thomas both went over 100 yards and 10 catches each against the Titans last week. This is the way to attack Tennesee. The WR2 against the Titans has been enjoying top ten performances for the last two months! The Chiefs should target Hill early and often and we know how explosive he is. He can score from anywhere. A perfect tournament play!

Bonus:

Rishard Matthews: $4,600 vs. Kansas City (Road)

 I think this game might have sneaky shoot out potential. I know the Chiefs shut down the Raiders through the air last time we saw them but they do have flaws. I like Matthews to bounce back against them with a 5/65/1 line. Matthews should see low ownership this week and give you a nice advantage if you decide to roster him.

Marquise Lee: $4,000 vs. Houston (Road)

The best receiver on the Jaguars! T.Y. Hilton just torched Houston out of the slot last week and now the Texans face Lee who is on the rise. Lee is averaging seven targets a week over the last NINE games. His yardage has been boom or bust but I think he exploits the Texans for seven catches, ninety yards and a score. Sign me up!

Tight End:

Travis Kelce: $5,900 vs. Tennessee (Home)

I don’t like to pay up at Tight End but Kelce is on a historic run of four straight 100 yard games and has another plus matchup against the Titans. His safe floor makes the price worth it.

Delanie Walker: $3,900 vs. Kansas City (Road)

I LOVE Walker this week and will have him in most of my lineups. No Derrick Johnson for the Chiefs really hurts their chances of covering Delanie. Walker almost scored twice last week and the target volume is still really healthy. I’m really surprised he’s priced this low, Great cash game and tournament play. All aboard!!!

Ladarius Green: $3,700 vs. Cincinnati (Road)

It’s really hard to trust Big Ben on the road, I know. I do trust that Ben will find Green early and often this weekend against the Bengals who have given up 79 yards or more in three of their last five games against tight ends. Green is a good tournament upside play at this price and should find the endzone.

Defense:

Buffalo: $3,700 vs. Cleveland (Home)

It’s the Browns.

Arizona: $3,000 vs. New Orleans (Home)

The Cradinals at home have been a great defensive unit. The Saints are struggling. Worth the risk here.

New England: $2,800 vs. Denver (Road)

Denver has trouble scoring points and can’t run the ball. New England drops into coverage and let’s Siemian try to beat them. Good luck with that.

That wraps up week fifteen! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at insider@tffgurus.com or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!

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Find me on Twitter @DaFantasyFather

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