Doug’s DraftKings player picks week 12
Happy Thankgiving everybody! I love me some turkey day with the family and watching some football! I’ll be covering the twelve game Sunday slate this week for you. I did fill out a couple of lineups for the three game turkey day slate as it looks like some fun games are on tap. Hopefully I don’t fall victim to a turkey coma.
Last week was a pretty solid one overall as there were only a few really bad calls, I’m looking at you Marty B., cause you killed me, bro! Life goes on and I did win some money last week so I’m not going to complain. I stacked Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson together in lineups last week so yeah, that worked out well. I recommend pairing guys like that every week if you can. Their floors are insane in DFS. On to week 12!
Now as important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 5X their value, which I discussed in the week one article. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it! With that said here are the results from week eight:
Touchdowns: Kirk Cousins, Le’Veon Bell, Doug Baldwin, Zach Miller
First Downs: Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, Theo Riddick, Dion Lewis, Mike Evans, Jordan Reed, Rams D, Dolphins D
Punts: Spencer Ware, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Martellus Bennett, Philly D
Russell Wilson: $6,700 vs. Tampa Bay (Road)
The hottest QB in the NFL right now and his price still hasn’t caught up to his performance. Tampa has improved on defense the last two weeks but they faced Jay Cutler and Alex Smith, not quite on the Wilson level. A 300 yard, multiple TD game should be pretty easy on Sunday.
Ryan Tannehill: $5,500 vs. San Francisco (Home)
Ryan hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire with his play recently but finds himself in an attractive spot against a struggling Niners defense that just gave up four passing TD’s to Tom Brady. My gut says Tannehill can put up enough points at this price so that you can stack your pricey running backs this week. 250 yards and two scores feels right to me.
Carson Palmer: $5,300 vs. Atlanta (Road)
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Palmer was a top five QB last year and this year has just looked lost. I think his ownership will be very low this week despite a GREAT rebound spot. Palmer stunk up the joint in Minnesota last week but did have back to back 300-yard passing games to his credit. I think this game will be a shootout and Palmer eclipses 300 yards with two scores. I like a Palmer, Johnson, and Fitzgerald stack this week too.
Jay Ajayi: $7,600 vs. San Francisco (Home)
There are a lot of attractive matchups this week so I don’t blame you if you start David Johnson or Melvin Gordon in your lineups. I like Ajayi for the most obvious reason, he faces the league’s worst run defense and he is a bell cow back who should touch the ball 20 times or more. As you will see in the following players I recommend, touches are king in DFS. Can Ajayi get his third 200-yard rushing game this week? We shall see!
Thomas Rawls: $5,700 vs. Tampa Bay (Road)
Thomas Rawls suddenly finds himself to be the only guy in town in the Seahawks backfield after C.J. Prosise’s year ending injury and the release of Christine Michael. Just like Jay Ajayi, Rawls finds himself in a situation where he should be touching the ball a ton against a sub-par run defense. He can catch the ball a little too so at $5,700, I love Rawls this week.
Doug Martin: $4,900 vs. Seattle (Home)
Now here is a play that screams bad idea! Wait, hear me out. Martin saw 22 carries in his second week back against a good Chiefs defense and was on the field 80% of the time. He’s healthy and the Seahawks run defense hasn’t been an elite unit in my opinion so Martin’s volume and opportunity should pay off at this depressed price. Take advantage and spend up elsewhere.
Bonus: Jeremy Hill $3,900 vs. Baltimore (Road)
Much Like Doug Martin, Hill should see a ton of work now that Giovanni Bernard is done for the year with a torn ACL. He only has Rex Burkhead pushing him for work. The Ravens are stout against the run and we don’t really know if the Bengals will use Hill in the passing game but I’m willing to find out. Hill can take one to the house from distance or on short yardage. A great GPP play this week as ownership should settle into the low single digits.
Larry Fitzgerald: $7,000 vs. Atlanta (Road)
Marcus Trufant won’t shadow Fitzgerald and Palmer is going to pepper Larry with targets this week. Super safe floor in a great match up. I’m not a big fan of a lot of the big priced receivers this week, to be honest so Fitz gets the call!
Brandon Marshall: $6,100 vs. New England (Home)
One of the biggest disappointments in season long leagues, Marshall is coming off of a bye and getting his boy Ryan Fitzpatrick back at starting QB. Marshall should be a target monster in this one despite facing a plus cover corner in Malcolm Butler. The Patriots defense as a whole hasn’t left much to be desired lately so Matt Forte is a good play this week as well. The Jets get back on track and make it a close game this week.
Devante Parker: $4,700 vs. San Francisco (Home)
It looks like Parker likes to wait until the end of the year to break out every year. 8 targets two weeks ago and 10 targets last week make Parker a player on the rise. The target numbers are solid but it’s how Parker has looked that has me encouraged about his prospects this week at home against the Niners. 5 catches for 100 and a TD is in store for the second year receiver out of Louisville.
Bonus: Tyler Lockett: $3,600 vs. Tampa Bay (Road)
The healthier Lockett gets the more and more I feel a break out performance is incoming. One of the best deep threats in the league, Lockett is a GPP winner waiting to happen. Tampa can be exposed deep so fire up Lockett on the cheap and reap the rewards!
Greg Olsen: $5,800 vs. Oakland (Road)
The Texans TE’s were pretty wide open on Monday night and the trio of Fedora farts, Griffin and Stephen Anderson can’t hold a candle to Greg the third leg. Not a bad week to pay up at TE this week. It’s rough out there.
Gary Barnidge: $3,600 vs. New York Giants (Home)
Mccown+Barnidge= fantasy success. Should lead the Browns in targets and snag a score. The Giants got torched by Zach Miller before he got hurt. More of the same for mash potato mountain this week. It’s all gravy baby!
Will Tye: $3,000 vs. Cleveland (Road)
To be quite honest, TE sucks this week on this slate so Tye is a dart throw. I’ll take 40 yards a TD to give me a cheap top ten TE. I know, yuck.
New York Giants: $3,600 vs. Cleveland (Road)
Josh Mccown doesn’t scare anyone and the Giants have been playing pretty good defense as of late.
Miami: $3,300 vs. San Francisco (Home)
Kaepernick is due for a multiple interception game and Miami isn’t giving up a lot of points.
Tennessee: $2,800 vs. Chicago (Road)
Matt Barkley at QB. That is all.
That wraps up week twelve! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!