Doug’s DraftKings player picks Week 10
It’s great to be back! After a lovely week long cruise vacation I have triumphantly returned to give you your weekly DraftKings fix! First of all, big shout out to Christoper for taking the reigns while I was gone and providing you with some great content last week. He nailed QB, TE and defense! Secondly, it was nice to take a break from fantasy for a week and re-calibrate. I am a sponge when it comes to info and seek it out actively so to be off the grid was quite the mental stress reliever. The cruise was great and everyone had a great time, especially my son Lincoln who dressed as a pirate and trick or treated on the ship!
Now as important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.
As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 5X their value, which I discussed in the week one article. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it! With that said here are the results from week eight:
Dak Prescott, Colin Kaepernick, Aaron Rodgers, Zeke, Eric Ebron, Antonio Gates, Detroit D, San Diego D
First Downs: T.Y. Hilton
Punts: Josh Mccown, Charcandrick West, James Starks, Darren Sproles, Kelvin Benjamin, Demariyus Thomas, Tyler Lockett, Pittsburgh TE, Philly D
Tom Brady: $7,400 vs. Seattle (Home)
If you watched Monday nights game versus Buffalo you could probably tell that the “Legion of Boom” looked more like the human torch as Tyrod Taylor and Robert Woods carved them up in Seattle. Last I checked Brady and company are a little better then Buffalo on offense, coming off a bye and you damn right Tom Brady hasn’t forgotten Richard Sherman’s smack talk four years ago. Short week and flying across the country for the Seahawks make them vulnerable even if Kam Chancellor comes back. 300 yards and three scores is the floor this week. Go Pats!
Marcus Mariota: $5,700 vs. Green Bay (Home)
Mariota has been a favorite play of mine over the last five weeks and he’s currently the number five QB in redraft year to date. DraftKings continues to price him affordably despite another good match up. Green Bays pass rush has been non exsistent and their secondary still has holes that Marcus can exploit. Look for some healthy rushing yards for the former Heisman winner as well.
Jay Cutler: $5,300 vs. Tampa Bay (Road)
Fun fact: Tampa has given up over 1,000 yards from scrimmage over their past two games. Let that sink in. Fire up all your Bears this week! Stack them high and watch them fly! Smoking Jay looks to keep up the momentum he had going into the bye and I think he really breaks out in this one. My favorite value of the week and I’ll have him in numerous GPP’s this weekend.
David Johnson: $8,400 vs. San Francisco (Home)
More fun facts: San Francisco has allowed an opposing rusher to exceed 100 yards in seven straight games. They now face the RB who averages the most fantasy points per game in 2016. He’s chalk, he’s expensive, get him into your lineups. I would be SHOCKED if he had a let down game in this spot.
Todd Gurley: $5,300 vs. New York Jets (Road)
We go from the ultimate chalk play to my favorite contrarian play of the week. Gurley is going to bust out one of these weeks, I feel it. This isn’t a great match up on paper but Jay Ajayi just had a 100 yard performance against the Jets so I believe at this depressed price that Gurley can be a GPP winner on Sunday. Jeff Fisher says he wants to get Gurley more touches and I see a 100 yard, two TD game on deck. I’m either a genius or an idiot,lol.
Chris Ivory: $3,400 vs. Houston (Home)
I saw some flashes on 2015 Ivory last week and despite a fumble had a really nice game against Kansas City. The new OC looked to be more committed to the run by getting both Ivory and Yeldon touches. I think this continues against a Houston defense that can be attacked on the ground. Great price this week and one of my favorite GPP plays. 80 yards and a score would be icing on the cake.
Bonus: Mark Ingram $5,400 vs. Denver (Home)
Point chasing!! Hear me out first though. Denver has given up the fifth most rushing yards in the league. The Raiders just showed you how to beat them, run the damn ball. Ingram popped off last week in San Fran and while I don’t expect THAT again, I do expect 20 touches, 100 yards and a score. At $5,400 that’s #Greatvalue.
Alshon Jeffrey: $6,600 vs. Tampa Bay (Road)
See Cutler, Jay.
Tyrell Williams: $5,700 vs. Miami (Home)
I just traded for Mr. Williams in a season long league as he has one of the easiest schedules during the fantasy playoffs. Enough about the future, let’s talk about the present! It appears that Travis Benjamin may miss this game and that means big things for the Gazelle. Targets, yards and a touchdown should follow.
J.J. Nelson: $4,200 vs. San Francisco (Home)
Nelson has emerged as the number three option at receiver for the Cardinals and finds himself in a favorable situation this week against the lowly Niners. My only concern would be that David Johnson scores allll the points this week. Nelson at $4,200 makes a great GPP play as he has the ability to score from distance at anytime.
Bonus: Tyreek Hill: $3,800 vs. Carolina (Road)
Carolina just gave up almost 300 yards passing to Case Keenum in a low scoring affair last week. It looks as if Jeremy Maclin is a no go this week and Hill should see the majority of WR targets and with his skill set/speed poses a huge mismatch for the Carolina secondary.
Travis Kelce: $5,600 vs. Carolina (Road)
My favorite moment from last week was watching Kelce lose his shit after a no call defensive pass interference and throwing a towel, like a flag, at a referee. Too funny. This isn’t a great match up for Kelce on paper so I think his ownership will be fairly low which is a great opportunity to roster him and take advantage of the increased target share.
Zach Miller: $3,600 vs. Tampa Bay (Road)
See Jeffrey, Alshon.
Martellus Bennett: $3,100 vs. Seattle (Home)
The Seahawks can’t cover both Gronk and Bennett so I think this game ends up being a Bennett game against his brother’s team and he scores at least once, which as we know is all you really need at TE this year. Woof.
Washington: $3,100 vs. Minnesota (Home)
Minnesota can’t run the ball and the Redskins secondary has been very good thus playing right into their strength. The Vikings have all sorts of trouble scoring and I don’t expect that to change all of a sudden.
Los Angeles: $2,900 vs. New York Jets (Road)
Injuries along the Jets line pose big issues for the Jets offense this week against a really good Rams defense. Fitzpatrick is already banged up and he’s also #notgood this year. I’d be surprised if he even finished this game.
New York Jets: $2,800 vs. Los Angeles (Home)
On the flip side the Rams line sucks too and that plays into the Jets defensive strength along their D line. This game might end up being 13-10 when it’s all said and done. I still like Gurley though!
That wraps up week ten! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!