Doug’s DraftKings Player Picks: Week 9

Week eight was a bit of a mediocre one for us at TFFGurus, as we only had two value hits and five top ten hits of fifteen. Injuries bugged some of our selections for week eight while others ran into tough defenses.  This week I’ll be taking over Doug’s DraftKing Picks as he is on a lovely family vacation and has no access to the Internet. Unfortunately for Doug, he might be missing one of the craziest weeks in recent sports history. Aside from week eight of the NFL, he missed the surprising trade of one of his favorite players in Jamie Collins, games five through seven of this historical World Series, and what I expect to be a great game tonight between Atlanta and Tampa Bay. On to week nine’s DraftKings picks, which will involve a decent amount of chalk because it’s another case of the bye week hell.

Now as important as it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.

As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down into three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 5X their value, which I discussed in the week one article. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it! With that said here are the results from week eight:

Touchdowns:

Derek Carr, Devontae Booker, John Brown, C.J. Fiedorowicz

First Downs:

Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Jacquizz Rodgers, Melvin Gordon, Lamar Miller, Gary Barnidge, Kansas City D

Punts:

Brandon Marshall, Jimmy Graham, New York Jets D, Arizona D

Quarterback:

Dak Prescott: $6,100 vs. Cleveland (Road)

Anyone playing Cleveland is usually worth a look in my book. With Romo on the brink of return, Dak could really do his best to impress and force the coaching staff to keep him as the starter.  He and Dez looked good last week and should only improve as their rapport grows.  There might be a decent amount of ownership here but the matchup is one you cannot avoid.

Colin Kaepernick: $5,600 vs. New Orleans (Home)

Contrarian play here as Kaepernick still doesn’t throw the ball well at all but his running ability keeps him in the conversation for DFS. Playing against New Orleans is the caveat here, especially with it being at home.  New Orleans defense as we all know is not good, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Kaep can have himself a day and propel the 49ers past the Saints.

Josh McCown: $5,400 vs. Dallas (Home)

This one may come as a bit of a surprise, but I expect Cleveland to be playing from behind for the majority of the game, similar to most games (sorry Cleveland fans). McCown has cannon in place of his arm so he’ll be slinging it around all day.  Add in the fact that Dallas just lost two of their defensive backs in Barry Church and Morris Claiborne and this one could turn into a shootout, which we as fantasy players love.  This is one reason I’m avoiding the Dallas defense in all formats this week as well.

Bonus: Aaron Rodgers $7,800 vs. Indianapolis

I don’t usually like to pay up for quarterbacks, but in this case, I may just be enticed to do it. A shootout is looming and if the Packers don’t have any running game yet again, then Rodgers will have to throw (and run) a lot.  He should be able to return 5x value (39 points) if the Colts can keep up.

Running Back:

Ezekiel Elliot: $7,900 vs. Cleveland (Road)

I love the stack here with Dak. The Dak Stack if you will.  Dallas should rumble all over Cleveland this weekend (which means they probably won’t) and that means that Zeke and Alfred Morris ($4,600, not a bad play either) should pile up the rushing yards while they kill the clock.  I also think Zeke should get plenty of touches out of the backfield and Cleveland potentially tries to stack the box.  We know how good of a receiving threat he can be, so no matter what Cleveland does he’ll still get his.

Charcandrick West: $4,400 vs. Jacksonville (Home)

A favorite of mine last year especially because I thought he filled the role of Charles better than Spencer Ware, West finally gets his crack at it again this year. Ware did not practice Thursday so it appears to be all systems go for Charmander.  I expect him to be heavily owned but I don’t think you can pass up the opportunity or the matchup, especially with a huge workload coming his way.  West also has the ability to catch the ball well out of the backfield.  Going up against a Jacksonville defense that allows 124.7 yards on the ground per game and nine touchdowns, this is someone you must have in your lineup.

James Starks: $4,200 vs. Indianapolis (Home)

Keep an eye on this situation in what has the makings of a potential shootout. Starks practiced on Thursday so there’s a chance he suits up for the game on Sunday.  I’m not a huge fan of his game but he would basically be the only running back the Packers would have.  It might be difficult for Rodgers to continuously pepper around as many throws as he has been over the past few weeks.  If the reports coming out of Indianapolis are positive, I may take a chance on Starks this weekend.

Bonus: Darren Sproles $3,900 vs. New York Giants (Road)

He has been playing really well of late and is great catching it out of the backfield. Rumors have been swirling about him becoming the lead back and Ryan Mathews taking a backseat.  He could also take a return to the house at any time.  If you want a big play potential type and some great value, Sproles is your man.

Wide Receiver:

T.Y. Hilton: $7,600 vs. Green Bay (Road)

Another potential shootout T.Y. looks ready to go again after being a little banged up last weekend. He is a bit expensive, but we all know that he can have some huge games.  Rodgers and Luck will be trading off passing touchdowns all day and Indy has no reason to force the running game with Green Bay’s rush defense being so good.  Thank You Hilton should have a big game!

Kelvin Benjamin $6,800 vs. Los Angeles (Road)

I think LA will try and take away Greg Olsen in this game and that should open things up for Benjamin, especially downfield. Cam will be doing a decent amount of scrambling having to face the stout Rams front, giving him time to get open.  Benjamin is a sneaky play who should have some low ownership and the Rams’ front seven is the strength of their D.  I’m not worried about any of the Rams’ defensive backs giving Benjamin trouble.

Demaryius Thomas $6,000 vs. Oakland (Road)

Another expected low ownership play, I expect most people to look to the other Denver receiver as their choice this weekend in Sanders. Oakland as we know does not have a good secondary and if they can put up points in bunches as we’ve seen them do this season, Denver could be in trouble.  I would not be surprised to see Siemian forced to throw a ton in this game.  Oakland has given up almost 300 yards per game and fifteen touchdowns through the air so far this year.

Bonus: Tyler Lockett $3,800 vs. Buffalo (Home)

With Russell Wilson shedding his knee brace soon, all signs are pointing to him being back in good health. Concerns over his pectoral muscle are nothing, and I expect him to be much more mobile this weekend.  If he can be the mobile quarterback we all know and have seen before, Lockett could have a few big plays this weekend.  Shot in the dark!

Tight End:

Eric Ebron $3,100 vs. Minnesota (Road)

Ebron is finally healthy and has reassumed his role in the Detroit offense.  Targets always find their way to him, especially in the redzone.  I expect Anquon Boldin’s role to decrease and think Marvin Jones stays at his current level of targets which are down from the beginning of the year.  Eeb’s saw ten targets last week and should see a similar number this week in a tough game against Minnesota.  Even against a stingy defense, I’ll still be plugging him into a few lineups.

Antonio Gates: $3,000 vs. Tennessee (Home)

Gates is still Philip Rivers’ favorite redzone target and we know that they want to get him the tight end touchdown record. He’s still six touchdowns away from tying the record which is certainly within his grasp this year.  For a brief moment, Hunter Henry seemed like he was going to take over as the main tight end there, but Gates has come back and reassumed that role.  He should be good for at least 30 yards and a touchdown, which is phenomenal at his price.

Jessie James: $2,800 / Ladarius Green: $2,500 vs. Baltimore (Road)

Pick your poison here. If you want the higher upside you go with Green and hope he and whoever plays QB can be on the same page.  If you want the safety blanket and safer floor, then run with James.  Keep an eye on this situation as we head into Sunday to see how healthy Ladarius Green is actually going to be.

Defense:

Philadelphia: $3,100 vs. New York Giants (Road)

Philly always has big play ability with some playmakers on defense and special teams. Going up against an always knuckleheaded team in the Giants could lend itself to be a big day.  A stack with Sproles and the defense would be a wise and potentially huge play this weekend.

San Diego: $3,000 vs. Tennessee (Home)

Joey Bosa has been an animal so far this year and he and Melvin Ingram have really formed a solid one-two punch. Tennessee could be without Demarco Murray and Marcus Mariota has a tendency to turn the ball over.  If Denzel Perryman can eventually become the playmaker some of us thought he would be (he’s still only 23), San Diego could have themselves a potent defense that could remind us of the old Shawne Merriman days.  I really think San Diego could have a huge day on Sunday, especially if Murray is out.

Detroit: $2,500 vs. Minnesota (Road)

Last up on the defensive docket are the Detroit Lions, who I’m expecting to have low ownership because their defense is not that good. But the matchup is what has me all over this one.  Minnesota’s offensive line is leaky and just gave up five sacks to the Bears so-so front seven.  Philadelphia’s defense put up 24 points on the Vikings two weeks ago with six sacks and Chicago put up nine on the back of those five sacks.  Detroit has five sacks in their last two games and should have at least that this weekend.  This is certainly a risky play though.

That wraps up week eight! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at insider@tffgurus.com or feel free to send us a tweet @dafantasyfather, @TFFGurus, and @thefantasyboys. Good luck and let’s win some money!!!

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