Doug’s DraftKings player picks week 8

Week seven was one of my most successful weeks of the year and I’m really starting to hit my stride in 2016. This week we have a fun slate with some very chalky plays that should hit and help you win some of that precious DraftKings money! Now as important is it is for the “chalk” to hit in GPP’s it’s just as important to find those contrarian plays that nobody else is playing to increase your chances of placing in the money. It’s a gentle balance, that’s for sure. Lineup construction is the most important piece to success. Take your time, do your research and go with your gut as to who YOU think will do well. Group think can cloud your thinking! I’m just a guide to help you and I hope you enjoy my advice every week.

As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down in three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 5X their value, which I discussed in the week one article. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it! With that said here are the results from week six:

Touchdowns:

Jameis Winston, Jacquizz Rodgers, Spencer Ware, Tevin Coleman, Mike Evans, Jamison Crowder, Eagles D, Ravens D

First Downs:

Alex Smith, Marcus Mariota, Demarco Murray, Patriots D

Punts:

Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce, Hunter Henry, Cameron Brate

Quarterback:

Matt Ryan: $7,000 vs. Green Bay (Home)

The QB1 year to date in redraft finds himself in a great spot, at home against a suspect Green Bay secondary that has given up some big games recently through the air due to injuries. When I first started putting together this article Ryan stood out to me as an elite play at that price. He may throw 50 times in this one in what could be a back and forth game in the dome. An Atlanta stack of Ryan, Julio (who should go HAM) and Devonta Freeman with no Tevin Coleman makes a ton of sense too. Plenty of value out there this week to fit all three in your lineups.

Derek Carr: $5,900 vs. Tampa Bay (Road)

I love Carr this week at his depressed cost of $5,900 even though it’s on the road which with traditional thinking says Carr won’t perform as well. Tampa still has defensive problems and this game shapes up to be a potential shootout so at this price Carr is a safe play with the ole’ upside!

Jameis Winston: $5,700 vs. Oakland (Home)

Famous Jameis came up big for me last week in a great spot. Thank you sir,my wallet appreciates your good deeds. Jameis gets another great match up at home against the Raiders and leads a stack worthy Bucs team that should find success on Sunday. Winston, Evans and Martin/Rodgers should be an elite option for the stacking crowd as they all offer top 5 performance results. Go Noles! Clemson is going down at the Doak!

Running Back:

Lamar Miller: $6,300 vs. Detroit (Home)

It was unfortunate that Miller hurt his shoulder in the Denver game last week as he was off to a hot start. You wanna know how to make that shoulder feel better? Play the Lions defense, that’s how! Miller is considered “day to day” right now but I’m confident he suits up this week. The Texans need him to be successful on offense as a whole. He’s their bell cow and however Miller goes, they go. I see 125 total yards and a score as a floor this week. Crazy? Maybe, but I have faith in his health, talent and opportunity against the cowardly Lions.

Melvin Gordon: $5,700 vs. Denver (Road)

I’ve read some early DFS articles that have stated they are fading Gordon this week which, to me, is surprising. He’s getting the workload and albeit he’s been TD dependent week to week but it’s not like the Denver run D has been awesome. I saw Alfred Blue look decent last week against them, C’mon man! $5,700 is too good of a price to pass up for Gordon this week and he may have a low ownership percentage with all the major sites analysis of his “fade’ week. When they zig, you zag. That’s how money is won in this game.

Devontae Booker: $3,700 vs. San Diego (Home)

I usually outline this article on Tuesday morning to get a feel for the slate and didn’t have Booker in it initially. The C.J. Anderson injury news broke yesterday that he was going to miss multiple weeks and this launched Twitter into a fervor. Booker will no doubt be the highest owned player on ALL slates this week and even with that said I would not avoid him. Home game, Run based team, Chargers D and an opportunity to possibly seize the job from Anderson make this a drool worthy spot. The kid has looked great and with 20-25 touches I don’t see how he doesn’t pop off this week. ALL IN!

Bonus:

Doug Martin: $6,100 or Jacquizz Rodgers $5,800 vs. Oakland (Home)

Raise your hand if you’ve heard start your players against the Raiders D this year! This situation obviously bears monitoring as there hasn’t been much news on Doug Martin for this week yet. Whoever starts at RB for Tampa this week is a must play as they will see the volume needed to make them a safe play for cash games. I expect high ownership in GPP’s so don’t be TOO overexposed to them if you can avoid it. Whoever starts cracks 100 yards and a score, book it.

Wide Receiver:

Brandon Marshall: $7,800 vs. Cleveland (Road)

The best news for Marshall owners is that Geno Smith was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Marshall has been the most vocal supporter of Ryan Fitzpatrick on the team and in turn Fitz targets the crap out of him. Cleveland has been the leagues worst defense in terms of giving up points so a Fitz, Marshall, Forte stack would make a ton of sense this week. Marshall may finish as the WR1 when it’s all said and done for week 8.

Ty Montgomery: $5,300 vs. Atlanta (Road)

Is he a WR? Is he a RB? Tune in to our Trophy Time podcast where we discuss the controversy! For DraftKings purposes he is a WR so that’s how we will cover him. A great match up against a soft Atlanta run D on the fast turf is a win win for Montgomery. Reports out of Green Bay say that Knile Davis will see more work in the backfield this week as he’s learned the playbook. In a PPR setting I still have a pretty high level of trust that Montgomery will produce 100 total yards with 5-6 catches and possibly a score as the Falcons do give up big plays on the ground. Safe floor and high ceiling play this week which is exactly what you want!

John Brown: $4,700 vs. Carolina (Road)

This is one of my bigger, bolder calls of the week as Brown is coming off of a hamstring injury and was diagnosed with sickle cell anemia. He looks like a go and this Cardinals passing game desperately needs him back. The Panthers as we all know have been lenient in the passing game so Palmer should have a field day and Brown is who I’m pegging for the most success this week. 6/90/1 is in play.

Tight End:

Jimmy Graham: $6,100 vs. New Orleans (Road)

Revenge game narrative! Graham returns to the dome where he was once an elite option at the position and looks to build on his comeback season. At least five catches per game in his last three and has averaged over 80 yards a game make Graham a TE1 once again! It has certainly helped that Tyler Lockett has been hurt so Graham has siphoned a fair share of targets and while he hasn’t looked like the same player he was in New Orleans he’s getting the job done. Massive upside this week in what should be a fairly high scoring game.

Gary Barnidge: $3,300 vs. New York Jets (Home)

A Tight End is typically a young QB’s best friend and it looks like that will be the case this week against the Jets. Barnidge has been a disappointment this year but finds himself in a great spot to bounce back against a defense that likes to give up the big play. I expect to a stat line similar to last weeks 6/66 but throw in a TD this week for good measure!

C.J. Fiedorowicz: $2,800 vs. Detroit (Home)

I’ve started C.J. two straight weeks in a primetime only GPP and he’s paid nice dividends for me as I’ve cashed in both. He faces a great match up against the Lions, who honestly are one of the worst units in the league at stopping the TE position. C.J. has been seeing 6-7 targets a game and that alone gives me enough confidence to play him.

Defense:

New York Jets: $3,400 vs. Cleveland (Road)

Cleveland might have to start yet another rookie QB against a respectable Jets D who desperately needs a win. If Josh Mccown is healthy enough to go for the Browns I’d probably tick them down slightly.

Kansas City: $2,800 vs. Indianapolis (Road)

Which Kansas City defense will we see this week? The tight unit or the crappy secondary version? I think they do a good job here limiting Luck. They shut down tight ends so it’s really only going to be Hilton and Moncrief this week. Look for a couple of turnovers and a handful of sacks this week.

Arizona: $2,700 vs. Carolina (Road)

This unit might be tired after playing five quarters of football and then flying across the country to face the Panthers BUT they did just hold the Seahawks to six points and its’s not like the Panthers have been the 2015 version of themselves, so at this price I’ll fire them up in a few GPP’s.

That wraps up week eight! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at insider@tffgurus.com or feel free to send me a tweet @dafantasyfather Good luck and let’s win some money!!!

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