Doug’s DraftKings player picks week 5

The running back position single handily saved my bacon in tournaments last week as I cashed in half of the ones I entered and just missed in a double up by seven points. Like I said last week there were a ton of playable running backs at good value that I liked. This week we have New Orleans, Kansas City, Seattle and Jacksonville all on bye weeks so that has left the talent pool thinner than usual as all four teams have numerous fantasy relevant players on them. The good thing about DFS is you don’t have to worry about finding that replacement etc. Just pick good players. Sounds easy right? This week is definitely more challenging than last. Let’s see how we can build a winning lineup in week 5!

As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down in three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 5X their value, which I discussed last week. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it! With that said here are the results from week one:

Touchdowns:

Demarco Murray, Carlos Hyde, Jordan Howard,Mark Ingram,Steve Smith Sr.,John Brown,Broncos D

First Downs:

Joe Flacco,Devonta Freeman,Greg Olsen, Zach Miller

Punts:

Carson Palmer (inj.), Trevor Siemiaen (inj.),Legarrette Blount, Deandre Hopkins,Mike Evans,Ted Ginn Jr.,Adam Humphries,Coby Fleener, Patriots D, Jets D

 

Quarterback:

Tom Brady: $7,500 vs. Cleveland (Road)

This has narrative street written all over it. The Gronk you tour starts here! While I don’t think the Pats are gonna hang a fifty burger on the Browns I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least 30 points and that has me all in on a Pats stack, as you will see later. Back to Brady for a moment, I don’t think he will be rusty at all. He’s been in this offense forever and everyone with the exception of Gronk is 100% healthy so there is no excuse not to fire on all cylinders against an over matched Browns squad. How’s 300 yards and three touchdowns sound to kick his season off?

Carson Wentz: $6,400 vs. Detroit (Road)

Out of all the rookies this year Wentz has by far been the most surprising. I though he might get exposed against the Steelers but that was far from what happened. He’s playing like a vet and has a very good defense playing behind him. Fresh off the bye and facing a rather putrid Lions defense I don’t see why Wentz can’t have another great game as he chases the Rookie of the Year award. All you need him to do at this price is pass for 250 yards and throw a couple of touchdowns. I think that’s his floor this week to be perfectly honest.

Brian Hoyer: $5,500 vs. Indianapolis (Road)

The journeyman quarterback who eventually finds a home and becomes fantasy relevant every year. That’s exactly what Brian Hoyer is. Another great match up for him albeit on the road. Two straight 300 yard, two touchdown and zero pick performances and he’s only $5,500? Sign me up! A Bears GPP stack is a sneaky one this week as Alshon Jeffrey, Eddie Royal, Jordan Howard and Zach Miller all  represent some value at their respective positions. Kevin White was just put on the I.R. so all of these guys should see an uptick in targets and production.

Bonus:

Paxton Lynch/Trevor Siemian: $5,200 vs. Atlanta (Home)

Atlanta has given up at least three passing touchdowns in every game this year so whomever starts for Denver this week is a great value play. Emmanuel Sanders feels like a bit of a points chase but I’m pretty confident with him in this match up too.

Running Back:

Todd Gurley: $6,500 vs. Buffalo (Home)

This is the lowest price I have seen on Gurley since he erupted on to the scene last year. Have his results been great in 2016? No, they haven’t but he also faced pretty good run defenses every week up to this point. I think this is the week he bounces back and goes over 100 yards and a score. He will have the touches to do it and Buffalo and their run defense aren’t anything special and they typically don’t play well on the road, minus the Patriots shutout. I don’t want to talk about that. Go Pats.

Terrance West : $4,800 vs. Washington (Home)

If you were to tell me in the off season that West would be fantasy relevant I would have laughed in your face. Well, here we are in 2016 and West is officially a thing. Justin Forsett just got released and Kenneth Dixon will back him up. Take advantage of West while you can because I think Dixon takes that job eventually and will show some DFS value later in the season. Right now though West is a great play against a shaky front seven of the Redskins. I’ll probably have him in a handful of my lineups this week. 80-100 total yards and a score seems about right this week.

Jerrick Mckinnon: $4,000 vs. Houston (Home)

The one thing I took away from the Monday night game is that Mckinnon looked great and Matt Assiata was a trash bag. Demarco Murray had a really nice game last week versus the Texans and I think what we saw from their defense without Watt is what we should expect going forward. I Love Mckinnon at this price this week and think he’s one of the best values on the whole slate. Start with confidence!

Bonus:

Deandre Washington: $3,400 vs. San Diego (Home)

Latavius Murray is doubtful this week and Washington is in line to benefit the most. The Raiders love this kid and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him garner 15-20 touches against the Chargers. High ownership is probable so just be cautious of how many lineups you have him in for GPPs.

Josh Ferguson: $3,000 vs. Chicago (Home)

My hail mary GPP play of the week! 5X value on Ferguson means fifteen points and I think based on his usage in London last week that this may be totally doable. He is eating into Frank Gores workload and is the clear third down back. Game script in this one may see Luck going pass heavy again making Ferguson a super sneaky play.

Wide Receiver:

O’Dell Beckham Jr.: $8,500 vs. Green Bay (Road)

This a perfect spot to play OBJ in. Lowest price I’ve seen,Bad press, down game, prime time game and facing a porous Green Bay pass defense. I’m betting on OBJ to have a big bounce back game on a national stage. Just a hunch.

Steve Smith Sr.: $5,300 vs. Washington (Home)

Steve Smith Sr. was in this spot last week and paid off big time. His price has gone up this week but to me he still presents a bunch of value. He will most likely be lining up in the slot and that’s a huge mismatch. This game may be higher scoring than some think and I believe Smith Sr. benefits the most as he’s Flacco’s number one target. Look for 8-9 catches and close to 100 yards and a score again this week from father time.

Julian Edelman: $6,700 vs. Cleveland (Road)

Part two of the Patriots stack! Edelman gets his real life best buddy back this week and should get a ton of looks underneath and over the middle. Another player who is at the lowest price I’ve seen them at in a while, Edelman is a PPR DFS machine when he is healthy. A touchdown is icing on the cake if he can get it. I think Julian cooks his way up to 7-8 catches for 85 yards and a short score so he can celebrate in the end zone with his man crush TB12!

Tight End:

Martellus Bennett: $3,700 vs. Cleveland (Road)

The Patriots stack is now complete! I don’t believe that Gronk will be back to 100% this week and I think he will be used as a blocker for most of his snaps thus freeing up the Black Unicorn to do all the pass catching work this week. Bennett has looked great this year and I’m looking forward to him and Brady making some sweet, sweet music on the gridiron in week five’ Love his value this week in what really is a bit of a crap shoot for Tight Ends.

Zach Ertz: $3,500 vs. Detroit (Road)

Lesson one, start your tight ends against Detroit. They have given up a Tight End touchdown in every game this year. Ertz is returning after a shoulder/rib injury and looks to feast this week. He should see plenty of targets and I like his chances to grab a score in this one.

Hunter Henry: $3,300 vs. Oakland (Road)

Antonio Gates was back at practice this week so keep an eye on this situation as it develops. If Gates can go he is a great option against an Oakland team he has killed over his career. If he can’t go pivot to Henry, He’s looked really good the last two weeks and his targets, receptions and yards have all been healthy. He’s clearly the future in San Diego and the present in weekly DFS.

Defense:

Vikings: $3,400 vs. Houston (Home)

The NFL’s best unit so far. They don’t give up over 17 points and they force turnovers and get sacks consistently. They are at home and could really give the Texans fits. Great value this week and a safe floor for either cash or GPP games.

Buffalo: $3,100 vs. Los Angeles (Home)

I like both of the defenses in this one mostly based on turnover and sack potential. Case Keenum has looked better but he is still who we thought he was and that is a below average NFL Quarterback. Don’t expect a shutout this week as like I said earlier I think Gurley gets finally. I would expect a low scoring game here with its fair share of big defensive plays for both teams.

Titans: $2,400 vs. Miami (Road)

This one is a bit of a hail mary this week. The Dolphins are coming off a seven point showing against Cincinnati where they scored on a busted coverage early in the game. The offense looked lost honestly. Maybe some home cooking is what they need to get going but a sneaky Titans unit may surprise some people this week. Sacks and picks are what Ryan Tannehill is going to name his next two kids.

That wraps up week five! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at insider@tffgurus.com or feel free to send me a tweet @dafantasyfather Good luck and let’s win some money!!!

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