Doug’s Draftkings player picks week 4

What a week! The taste of victory was so sweet in week three. I won a little bit of cash even though my picks weren’t close to perfect. Week three was pretty much a combo of week one and week two’s results, a mixed bag. I’m feeling really good about week four. Lots of great running back value will allow you to pay up at receiver or tight end and really balance those lineups.  I think doubling up this week should be pretty easy and I have a few different lineups in GPP’s that I’m counting on to pay off big!

As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down in three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 5X their value, which I discussed last week. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it! With that said here are the results from week one:

Touchdowns:

Shane Vereen, Jarvis Landry

First Downs:

Ryan Tannehill, Melvin Gordon, Dez Bryant, Travis Benjamin

Punts:

Marcus Mariota, Philip Rivers, Dennis Pitta, Jordan Cameron, Trey Burton, Tampa, Miami, Pittsburgh

Like I said earlier a mixed bag of results in week three. I really banked on San Diego stacks to anchor a few of my lineups and they disappointed in a great match up. It’s a shame Shane Vereen is going to miss an extended period of time. He was really starting to show out for the Giants and was my best call last week for a value play. Now that we have more data we can make better decisions going forward.

Quarterback:

Carson Palmer: $6,300 vs. Los Angeles (Home)

Four interceptions last week for Palmer in a tough road game up in Buffalo, nothing like some home cooking for a big rebound! This is a perfect spot to buy low on Palmer because so many people will be off him this week it’s not funny. I love Bruce Arians and I think he fires up the troops and gets Arizona back on track in a big way in the desert. 300 yards and three touchdowns incoming!

Joe Flacco: $5,900 vs. Oakland (Home)

Joey Flacco seagulls is looking to fly high at home in a great spot against a spotty Oakland secondary. Flacco roasted Oakland last year for over 400 yards in the air. Baltimore can’t run the ball with any success so Joe will be dropping back early and often in this one. 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns should be the baseline this week.

Trevor Siemian: $5,400 vs. Tampa Bay (Road)

The number one QB last week, who saw that coming? I though the Bengals were better than that but I guess I was wrong! Now Siemian faces the ultimate funnel defense in Tampa Bay. Great against the run but absolutely awful against the pass. Case Keenum looked like a capable QB against them last week, Case Keenum! I love Trevor’s chances to pass for 250 plus yards and multiple touchdowns this week.

 

Running Back:

Demarco Murray: $6,800 vs. Houston (Road)

I was wrong. I admit it. I though Murray was going to be absolutely useless this year. He’s doing it all this season. Rushing and receiving well and seeing the bulk of the touches even with Derrick Henry waiting in the wings. Houston is now without J.J. Watt for what looks like the remainder of the season so running against the Teaxans just got a tad easier. Murray is a bellcow back and those are the ones you want to target in DFS. 125 total yards and a touchdown for Murray this week. Lock it up.

Devonta Freeman: $5,500 vs. Carolina (Home)

This pick may seem like a bit of a point chase but I think people will be scared off of Freeman this week. Carolina’s defense is usually one to avoid but if you want to make money in DFS this is how you differentiate your lineups from the masses. Freeman looked great on monday night and racked up over 200 all purpose yards. I don’t think he will do that this week but at his price you don’t need him to. I bet Freeman racks up over 100 yards from scrimmage and crosses the plain at home in what might be a high scoring game.

Lagarette Blount: $5,000 vs. Buffalo (Home)

The current rushing yards leader is about to have another “Blount” game this week. The game plan for the Patriots the first four weeks has been pretty clear, run the ball. The Bills are middle of the pack in run defense this year and I think Blount could see up to 30 carries with both of the Pats Qb’s banged up. Could we see one of those four touchdown games from Blount? I don’t think so this week but I’ll take over 100 yards and two touchdowns for $5,000. You damn skippy.

Bonus:

Mark Ingram: $5,900 vs. San Diego (Road)

The Saints wanted to get Ingram going last week but unfortunately the game got out of hand and running wasn’t really an option. Look for Ingram to get fed the ball a ton this week against a soft front seven.

Carlos Hyde: $4,200 vs. Dallas (Home)

How Hyde is only $4,200 is beyond me. He is the best value play of the week. A bellcow back against a suspect defense at home is a recipe for success! Save money here and ride high with a stud elsewhere in your lineups.

Jordan Howard: $3,700 vs. Detroit (Home)

I have a feeling Howard will be the highest owned running back along with Melvin Gordon this week. I don’t blame you for playing him at this price but beware the trap. Chicago could get down early in this one and abandon the run all together. Total boom or bust play. I’d much rather pay up $500 for Hyde.

 

Wide Receiver:

Deandre Hopkins: $8,400 vs. Tennesse (Home)

9-238-2,8-94-1 and 7-117-1 those are Nuk’s last three games versus the Titans. He owns them. My favorite receiver to pay up for this week.

 

Mike Evans: $6,500 vs. Denver (Home)

Much like Freeman I think the majority of players will fade Evans this week against a great Broncos secondary. This is a great contrarian play. The Bucs have throw the ball over 50 times twice already this year and Evans is a target hog. The volume should be there for him to do well. This is the lowest Evans will be priced all season so take advantage. 100 yards and a score wouldn’t surprise me, at all.

 

Steve Smith Sr.: $4,500 vs. Oakland (Home)

Smith Sr. is really starting to find his groove. Last week he posted a 8 for 89 line and was Flacco’s go to down the stretch in a close game against the Jags. I think this game is the mighty mouses coming out party. This dude is like a cockroach, you just can’t kill him.

 

Bonus:

Ted Ginn Jr.: $3,700 vs. Atlanta (Road)

Newton has been taking shots downfield to Ginn a lot but has been unable to connect so far. I think he connects this week for a long TD on the turf in Atlanta. Great GPP play this week.

John Brown: $4,300 vs. Los Angeles (Home)

Where there is Smokey Brown there is fire. Brown led the Cards in receiving last week as he gets back into his 2015 form. Look for him to fully bounce back this week at home as the Cardinals come out firing.

Adam Humphries: $3,000 vs. Denver (Home)

Who? He’s not on the Patriots? Humphries has proven to be Winston’s number two target in the passing game through the first three weeks. Like I said earlier, they are going to throw the ball quite a bit and the ghost of Vincent Jackson has all but dissipated into the abyss.

 

Tight End:

Greg Olsen: $6,000 vs. Atlanta (Road)

Coby Fleener made the Falcons look silly. Imagine what Greg Olsen is going to do this week. He’s my TE1 this week and with the position being a landmine of players I’ll pay up this week to roster Mr. consistent. Panthers should come out ever more motivated than usual after a 1-2 start.

 

Coby Fleener: $3,200 vs. San Diego (Road)

I don’t love this play this week as San Diego is decent at controlling the tight end. The reason I’ll roster Fleener hee and there is the upside. We saw it on Monday night with a healthy flow of targets and an increased trust with Brees means he should still be involved. 60 yards and a score is in the cards.

 

Zach Miller: $2,700 vs. Detroit (Home)

As long as Brian Hoyer is in at QB I like Miller’s chances to produce especially at this rock bottom price. The Lions suck against Tight Ends so yeah, that helps too.

Defense:

Denver: $3,700 vs. Tampa (Road)

Sacks, turnovers and touchdowns. All in play every week with this D. Jameis Winston has a history of being careless with ball if playing from behind.

Patriots: $3,300 vs. Buffalo (Home)

Patriots at home coming off a shutout against a team struggling on offense. Yes please!

New York Jets: $2,800 vs. Seattle (Home)

This might be the lowest scoring game of the week and I love this match up. The ultimate strength vs. weakness along the trenches should result in a handful of sacks for the Jets. Russell Wilson is also not 100% healthy and his mobility is what helps him in the pocket. If he can’t escape this one might get ugly quick.

 

That wraps up week four! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at insider@tffgurus.com or feel free to send me a tweet @dafantasyfather Good luck and let’s win some money!!!

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