Doug’s DraftKings player picks week 3

Can we pretend that week two just didn’t happen? I know I’d like to. I entered into the millionaire maker and a few other three dollar or less GPPs this past weekend and got absolutely smoked. Last week was the worst week I’ve had since I started playing and I have vowed to myself to dig in and do deeper analysis around constructing my rosters.

As a way to hold myself accountable to myself and you, the reader, I will provide a weekly recap of the previous weeks player picks. I find that accountability is important in this industry as too many writers, podcasters and “experts” throw things at a wall and see if they stick and are quick to tout their “wins” but never talk about the “losses” or “misses”. Both you and I know nobody is perfect at predicting what is going to happen week to week but I think some reflection is due when you whiff on a player or team pick for the week. I will break these down in three categories: Touchdowns are players that finished in the top 10 at their respective position or produced 5X their value, which I discussed last week. First Downs are players that didn’t hurt you in your lineup and had average results based on cost. Punts are the players that I completely whiffed on and did not help you in any way, shape or form. They happen, it’s part of the game. If I did a bad job picking them I’m going to own up to it! With that said here are the results from week one:

Touchdowns:

Stefon Diggs

First Downs:

Joe Flacco, Josh Mccown, Cole Beasley, Eric Ebron, Clive Walford, New England

Punts:

Dak Prescott, Eli Manning, Rashad Jennings, T.J. Yeldon, Jonathan Stewart (inj.), Ezekiel Elliott, A.J. Green, Emmanuel Sanders, Jason Witten, Baltimore, Jacksonville

Wow, it wasn’t a good week at all for my picks. The only touchdown pick was Stefon Diggs who was the WR1 in week two. I felt really good about myself after week ones choices and these results for week two brought me right back down to earth. Week two was tough not only in DraftKings but in redraft leagues as well. So many injuries! The good news is we get to pick new teams every week and value will present itself in the wake of all the destruction.

Quarterback:

Philip Rivers: $6,700 vs. Indianapolis (Road)

Rivers is the highlight of my stack of the week team, the San Diego Chargers. Rivers torched the Jaguars for four TD’s on Sunday and helped alleviate any questions about the offense after Keenan Allen was lost for the season with an ACL tear. Danny Woodhead is now lost for the season as well for the same reason. I expect Mr. bolo tie to light up the Colts depleted secondary in what should be a battle of awful defensive teams on Sunday. Over 300 yards and three touchdowns for Rivers should anchor your lineups this week.

Ryan Tannehill: $6,200 vs. Cleveland (Home)

Is what we saw in the second half of the Patriots game what Tannehill is capable of, or was it a relaxed defense with the Patriots up 24 points? I’m willing to bet that with a healthy Devante Parker that Tannehill is moving in the right direction. Arian Foster is probably not going to suit up in this one so Tannehill will be dropping back quite a bit against a suspect secondary and little to no pass rush. I think 350 yards and two to three touchdowns is his ceiling this week.

Marcus Mariota: $5,900 vs. Oakland (Home)

The Oakland secondary has given up over 800 yards through the air in the first two weeks and I think the trend continues in Tennessee. Mariota went off for three touchdowns the last time these teams met and I have a feeling the Titans will throw more than they usually do as Oakland is pretty good against the run thus far. Pencil in at least 250 yards passing and a couple of touchdowns mixed in with some rushing yards for the second year Quarterback.

 

Running Back:

Melvin Gordon: $5,800 vs. Indianapolis (Road)

With the loss of Danny Woodhead for the season Melvin Gordon becomes a bell cow back for the Chargers. He will probably have one of the highest ownership’s on the slate this weekend but he’s in such a good spot to succeed that you have to play him. Gordon saw 24 carries for 102 yards and a score last week against the Jags and shouldn’t see nearly as much resistance against a sub par Colts front on Sunday. Like I said earlier I expect this one to be one of the highest scoring games of the day so fire up Gordon and reap the rewards!

Isaiah Crowell: $4,700 vs. Miami (Road)

Miami could not contain Lagarette Blount last week when they knew the run was coming the whole time after rookie Jacoby Brissett took over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo in week two. Crowell’s skill set and situation are  very similar this week as rookie Cody Kessler gets his first career start. Crowell ripped off an 85 yard touchdown run last week and has now scored in both games. I think we see a heavy dose of Isaiah as the Browns try to ease in Kessler, 25 carries for 100 yards and a score would be mighty nice at his $4,700 price.

Shane Vereen: $3,700 vs. Washington (Home)

Rashad Jennings has been abysmal so far in 2016 and it looks like Vereen’s role is expanding in the offense. Jennings is already dinged up which surprises nobody. The Giants have trusted Vereen with the redzone touches which is always a promising sign. There are going to be a lot of affordable options at running back this week after all the injuries that were suffered in week two and I think Vereen slips under most peoples radar so his ownership should be pretty low.

 

Wide Receiver:

Dez Bryant: $8,400 vs. Chicago (Home)

An increased amount of targets and a A+ match up against a weak Bears secondary has Bryant in line for the rebound game of the week. Much like Melvin Gordon he will probably see a high ownership this week but once again it’s too good to pass up.

Jarvis Landry: $6,600 vs. Cleveland (Home)

Jarvis Landry should continue to get fed the ball at a high rate this week due to Miami’s inability to run the football. I know it’s the Browns run defense but I just don’t have a lot of faith in an Ajayi and Drake backfield. Landry should be good for double digit targets and catches with good yardage and as always the biggest question with Landry is can he find the end zone? I think he does this week!

Travis Benjamin: $5,200 vs. Indianapolis (Road)

Let me stop you if you’ve heard this before, start your Chargers this week! Even if Vontae Davis returns this week I don’t see him covering Benjamin a lot of the time as they do move him around quite a bit. Benjamin secured all six of his targets and scored twice in week two and I think he keeps the ball rolling as the WR1 in San Diego.

Bonus:

Stefon Diggs: $5,100 vs. Carolina (Road)

Devante Parker: $4,900 vs. Cleveland (Home)

Phillip Dorsett: $4,400 vs. San Diego (Home)

Sammie Coates: $3,800 vs. Philadelphia (Road)

Lots of good affordable options at WR this week. Diggs has a perceived “bad match up” but I like him again this week. Parker should see his fair share of work and is a big mismatch for Cleveland’s secondary. With Donte Moncrief out 4-6 weeks Dorsett’s targets should more than double in a pass happy offense and the match up is great this week. Sammie Coates is my hail mary play of the week. I think the Eagles can be exposed deep and that plays right into Coates skill set.

 

Tight End:

Dennis Pitta: $3,400 vs. Jacksonville (Road)

It feels like 2012 all over again! Pitta is seeing double digit targets and cracked 100 yards in week two. That can’t be ignored in what has started as an awful year for the Tight End position. I feel the touchdowns will be coming soon!

Jordan Cameron: $2,900 vs. Cleveland (Home)

Revenge game! I don’t always believe in that narrative but I did like how Cameron looked against the Patriots last week. This will probably the only time all season I recommend Cameron as a play as I’m not a fan of his game. Sometimes facing the Browns is a remedy to my bias.

Trey Burton: $2,500 vs. Pittsburgh (Home)

It looks like Zach Ertz is a game time decision this week but I fully expect him to miss this match up against Pittsburgh. Trey Burton had some buzz growing over the summer as he started to flash in training camp. He clearly looked like the pass catching TE with Brent Celek mainly filling the blocking role. I think Burton will be Carson Wentz’s best friend against a pretty decent Pittsburgh D. Check down city! 60 yards and a score would be sweet at his price.

Defense:

Tampa Bay: $3,100 vs. Los Angeles (Home)

Tampa can stuff the run and the Rams just can’t establish a passing game. A good pivot from the likely highly owned team I feature next.

Miami: $3,000 vs. Cleveland (Home)

Rookie QB. First start. No Corey Coleman. It’s going to be tough sledding for the Browns on Sunday. Will be the highest own defense on all slates.

Pittsburgh: $2,900 vs. Philadelphia (Road)

I know everyone has been thrilled with Carson Wentz so far in 2016. I get it. This is his first real test against an above average front seven. I think they will force some turnovers and get to Wentz in the backfield often. Nice sleeper play this week.

That wraps up week three! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at insider@tffgurus.com or feel free to send me a tweet @dafantasyfather Good luck and let’s win some money!!!

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