Doug’s Draftkings Player Picks Week 1

Hello all and welcome back! It’s that time of the year again for my weekly value,contrarian and (hopefully) low ownership plays on Draftkings. Every week I will be bringing you my top three plays at each position and a few honorable mention plays based on match ups and the Vegas point totals per game.

My process begins with looking at games that have high point totals according to the Las Vegas odds. The more players you have from those match ups the more likely you are to hit. Week one is the perfect example. Oakland on the road in New Orleans in what should be a shootout is a game I will target stacks of players and value plays like Willie Snead etc. A stack is when you pair multiple teammates in a single lineup. A great week one stack is Derek Carr, Michael Crabtree and Clive Walford who all show pretty nice value in a very favorable match up.

The second part of my process starts with looking at defenses that offenses can attack and have a higher likelihood of a high scoring game. I am not afraid to run with the obvious play. Sometimes the obvious play is the best one. Too many people,especially in tournaments, try to make their roster mostly “low owned” players to try and gain an advantage against thousands of others in a GPP. I like to mix up my lineups as much as possible. Will I start Spencer Ware in week one even though he is probably going to be the highest owned RB at $4400? You damn right I will as I believe he will be a top five RB in week one. If I do not play him and he goes off I am at a huge disadvantage and probably will not make any money. Don’t get too cute. If its a no brainer play, play it.

The third part of my process is looking at individual match ups based on defensive stats and most likely outcomes for a player. In week one this can be tricky as teams changes personnel and schemes so we do not have raw data, yet. I tend to lean contrarian plays through the first month of the season until we have a sample size large enough to make informed decisions. It is also an advantage to not get caught up in the early “group think”, unsexy can make money. In terms of likely outcomes I want to target players that can produce 5X their value. For example, Willie Snead is valued at $5,000 so for him to hit five times value he needs to result in 25 points at the end of the day for him to hit that mark. I like to try and find players, especially receivers, that have favorable corner back match ups and good target numbers to exploit  that 5X or more value. A perfect example of this in week one is Houston versus Chicago. It looks like Chicago will be without their top three defensive backs in week one so players like Will Fuller at $3700 at home is a perfect GPP play and Deandre Hopkins is a great chalk play. They should both do very well in week one.

Hopefully that gives you a better understanding of how I formulate my weekly picks and how you can use those same methods to put together your own lineups. Winning is great but keep in mind it is very difficult to win every single week, especially in tournaments. Things happen that cannot be predicted every single week for better and for worse. If you are looking for a safer floor try 50/50 games as they tend to be a safer option with albeit smaller earnings potential. With that said, lets get into week ones picks!!

Quarterback:

Jameis Winston: $6,600 vs. Atlanta (Road)

I love Jameis this year, there I said it. Playing in a faster paced offense and coming off a very successful rookie year, Winston is a great candidate to be a top five quarterback right off the bat in Atlanta. Atlanta didn’t do much to improve their defense and will be without their starting safety and first round pick Keanu Neal. This game also has a favorable point total and I think Jameis throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns.

Brock Osweiler: $6,300 vs. Chicago (Home)

I don’t necessarily think Osweiler is a great NFL QB but this match up is a green light and might be the only time all season I recommend the Brock lobster in your lineups. As I pointed out earlier Chicago’s secondary is very thin and should open up great opportunities for the Texans passing game.  Look for Brock to throw for 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Not bad for his salary in week one and will probably see low ownership across the board.

Dak Prescott: $5,000 vs. New York Giants (Home)

This is a fairly obvious play as Prescott is the most desirable value QB in week one at a very friendly salary of just $5,000. I expect him to be highly owned but I love his upside in this match up and the money you save will allow you to go more contrarian with some big names in the rest of your lineup. If you play multiple lineups just make sure he isn’t in every one of them. He is still a rookie after all so hedge your bets.

Bonus:

Carson Wentz: $5,000 vs. Cleveland (Home)

If you are feeling froggy and want to go with another value Wentz might be the guy for you. Cleveland’s defense couldn’t intimidate a fly and this may be an underrated shoot out game candidate. Just a gut feeling.

Running Back:

Rashad Jennings: $5400 vs. Dallas (Road)

It looks like the Giants are going to roll with Rashad this year as the lead back. He finished the season on a high note and I’m willing to bet he starts off hot. Dallas has a virtual all suspension team on their front seven so Jennings will be seeing second teamers most of the day. He should find plenty of room to run and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him top 100 yards from scrimmage and a score. Ownership should be in the middle of the pack so Jennings presents a nice opportunity to capitalize on.

Spencer Ware: $4,400 vs. San Diego (Home)

The obvious chalk play of the week. I’m willing to bet he is the most owned RB on the slate. A great match up,a low price and now it looks like Jamaal Charles isn’t going to play in week one make this a no brainer. Don’t be afraid of chalk plays like this one. Like I said earlier if he blows up and you didn’t roster him you may be sunk. 150 total yards and two scores could be in play.

Charles Sims: $4,400 vs. Atlanta (Road)

I love me some PPR backs in Draftkings and Sims is one of the best in the NFL. There will be plenty of opportunities for Sims to touch the ball in this game, especially with an uptempo offense this year for Tampa. Sims should garner plenty of targets and produce a 5-6 catch, 75 yards receiving line with some rushing yards mixed in. A score would be a cherry on top! I also like Doug Martin in this game at $6,200. A Bucs stack makes a lot of sense this week.

Bonus:

James White: $3,600 vs. Arizona (Road)

Defensive pressure and first start jitters with Jimmy G should make White a staple in the pass game in week one. I see a lot of dump offs in his future. If you compare Dion Lewis and James White’s numbers over six game stretches last year White actually outscored Lewis in fantasy. Great value play this week.

Wide Receiver:

Michael Crabtree: $5,500 vs. New Orleans (Road)

As I eluded to in the opening this is a game I would heavily target pass game options. I think this game will be the shootout of the week and exceed it’s Vegas point total. Crabtree isn’t sexy but he is a Carr favorite and hogs the red zone targets week in and week out. 6 catches for 80 yards and a score or maybe even two feels right in this match up.

Marvin Jones: $4,600 vs. Indianapolis (Road)

When we talk about horrible defenses in 2016 the Colts are right at the top of that list. It looks they will be without Vontae Davis for this game and that means Marvin the Martian should play out of this world. There is some risk with this play as under Jim Bob Cooter, Matt Stafford had one of the worst average depth of target numbers in the NFL. I think they use Jones a lot like they used Megatron but don’t force the ball to him to keep him happy like they did with Johnson. Efficiency should increase and Jones should be able to get behind that defense for a long score.

Will Fuller: $3,700 vs. Chicago (Home)

Will Fuller is Desean Jackson 2.0. Big weeks will happen a few times a year and the rest will be maddening. Spin the roulette wheel this week with Fuller as it will pay off big! Great price, great match up. No brainer.

Bonus:

Tajae Sharpe: $3,000 vs. Minnesota (Home)

I put Sharpe in the bonus because he is a player I projected to get a healthy amount of targets versus his low cost of just $3,000 in week one. Sharpe will be the number two WR for the Titans and it looks like he and Mariota have a really good rapport. I don’t project him to score but a 5 catch 75 yard day gets him close to 5X value.

Tight End:

Martellus Bennett: $3,400 vs. Arizona (Road)

The black unicorn should be a favorite target of Jimmy G in week one for a lot of the same reasons I think James White will be. Safe passing game with dump offs up and down the field will be the Patriots game plan against an aggressive Cardinals defense. Bennett is an animal in the red zone and its going to be impossible for any team to cover both him and Gronk. I have a feeling its going to be a good Patriots debut for Bennett in the desert.

Dwayne Allen: $3,200 vs. Detroit (Home)

If you have visited the site or listened to our podcast you know I have mad love for Dwayne Allen this year. I think he starts off hot in a great match up versus the Lions in what should be a high flying game. Points should flow pretty heavily in this one all day and wouldn’t be surprised to see Allen hit pay dirt more than once and score more fantasy points than he did all of last year! Every year a tight end has a big week one and this year it belongs to Mr. Allen.

Clive Walford: $3,000 vs. New Orleans (Road)

Stackeroo!!! Walford is a great play this week as you can tell by how many times I’ve mentioned this game in this article. I also loved hearing the news that the Raiders were shopping Mychal Rivera right before the 53 man cuts. Walford is their guy and he starts his breakout season in the Superdome!

Defense:

Philadelphia: $3,300 vs. Cleveland (Home)

It’s the Browns and I love a defense coached by Jim Schwartz. That is all.

Houston: $3,200 vs. Chicago (Home)

The Bears looked awful all preseason and J.J. Watt is a full go for week one. Turnovers and sacks a plenty for the Texans this week.

Minnesota: $3,100 vs. Tennessee (Road)

I think the Vikings come out fired up and ready to play after losing their starting QB for the season and the realization its on them to carry this team to another playoff birth. Low point total and good sack numbers in this one should provide good value.

That wraps up week one! If you have any questions please shoot us an email at insider@tffgurus.com or feel free to send me a tweet @dafantasyfather Good luck and let’s win some money!!!

 

 

 

 

 

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